THE USE OF EARTH OBSERVING SATELLITES FOR HAZARD SUPPORT: ASSESSMENTS & SCENARIOS

CEOS

COMMITTEE ON EARTH OBSERVATION SATELLITES

THE USE OF EARTH OBSERVING SATELLITES FOR HAZARD SUPPORT:
ASSESSMENTS AND SCENARIOS

__________________________________________________________________

FINAL
REPORT OF THE

CEOS DISASTER
MANAGEMENT
SUPPORT
GROUP

PUBLISHED FOR
CEOS
BY THE

NATIONAL
OCEANIC
AND ATMOSPHERIC
ADMINISTRATION,
DEPARTMENT OF
COMMERCE

UNITED
STATES OF
AMERICA

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAIR'S OVERVIEW

Contacts

HAZARD TEAM REPORTS

EARTHQUAKE

Summary

Summary Recommendations

Emergency Scenario

FIRE

Summary & Recommendations

Emergency Scenario

FLOOD

Summary & Recommendations

Emergency Scenario

ICE

Summary & Recommendations

Emergency Scenario

LANDSLIDE

Summary Recommendations

Emergency Scenario

OIL SPILL

Summary & Recommendations

Emergency Scenario

VOLCANO

Summary Recommendations

Emergency Scenarios

i

INFORMATION SERVER TEAM REPORT

ANNEXES I ­ VIII

I. DROUGHT REPORT (1998/1999)

II. DMSG Findings and Overarching Recommendations

CEOS Plenary Resolution on Disaster Management Support Ad Hoc Working Group

Terms of Reference for the DMSG Ad Hoc Working Group

III. Text of the International Charter on Space and Major Disasters

IV. 14th CEOS Plenary Resolution: International Charter for Space and Major Disasters

V. 14th CEOS Plenary Resolution in Support of UNISPACE III Implementation

VI. ACRONYM LIST

VII. PARTICIPANTS LIST

VIII. CEOS OVERVIEW

ii












______________________________________________________________________________

CHAIR'S
OVERVIEW

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

iii CHAIR'S OVERVIEW

The Use of Earth Observing Satellites for Hazard Support:
Assessments & Scenarios

Final Report of the
CEOS Disaster Management Support Group

Helen M. Wood, Chair
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
United States Department of Commerce
______________________________________________________________________________
INTRODUCTION

Weather satellites have long been used to support forecasting of intensive weather hazards such as
tropical cyclones, severe storms and flash flooding. Although there have been numerous research
and operational demonstrations that illustrate the potential usefulness of EO satellite data for a
broader range of hazards, the operational application of these data to other hazards is still quite
limited. Recognizing the benefits that could be gained from better application of EO satellite data to
natural and technological hazards, the Committee of Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) initiated
an activity for disaster management support in 1997, which later became the Disaster Management
Support Group (DMSG). As a result of the work done in this activity, three annual reports and this
Final Report have been published.

The goal of the CEOS Disaster Management Support Group (DMSG) has been to support natural
and technological disaster management on a worldwide basis by fostering improved utilization of
existing and planned Earth Observation (EO) satellite data. The DMSG has focused on developing
and refining recommendations for the application of satellite data to selected hazard areas. Hazard
teams for these selected areas were formed to document specific user requirements, findings, and
recommendations. An information tools team has addressed information location, access and
utilization requirements, with particular attention on the development of a pilot server intended to
demonstrate timely access to satellite-derived data and information products (i.e., "one stop
shopping") for support of various facets of disaster management.

The CEOS DMSG Background & Activities
CEOS was formed in 1984, in response to recommendations from the Economic Summit of Industrialized Nations Working Group on Growth, Technology, and Employment's Panel of Experts
on Satellite Remote Sensing. This group recognized the multidisciplinary nature of satellite-based
Earth Observations (EO) and the value of coordination across all proposed missions. In CEOS,
providers and users of civil EO satellite data work together to promote the effective use of satellite
data. Recognizing the benefits that could be gained from better application of EO satellite data to
natural and technological hazards, CEOS initiated an activity on disaster management support in
1997.

A resolution to form an ad hoc working group was presented at the 13th CEOS Plenary in November
1999. It was agreed that the group would continue the essential functions of the former project,
address improved space agency coordination, as well as outreach to commercial space operators,
and other issues. The DMSG was charged to serve as a forum to identify, and interact with, current
and potential users of space-derived data as one of the tools to deal with disasters. The group
addresses policy and technical issues including a focus on conducting a comparison of requirements
against capacity, and recommends steps to correct any mismatches between the two where possible.
With strong support among the representatives, the DMSG was formally established and the Terms
of Reference (TOR) approved by the 13 th CEOS Plenary. NOAA agreed to continue to provide the
Chair of the activity, which it has maintained up to the present. The Resolution and TOR are
attached at the end of this report.

The DMSG has seven hazard teams whose members include representatives from satellite agencies
and emergency management users' organizations. There are hazard teams for earthquake, fire,
flood, ice, landslide, oil spill, and volcanic hazards. In the early stages of the work of the DMSG, a
Drought Team was formed. It completed its work and continued in other fora (the initial report of
this team is included in an annex to this report). Teams were charged with compiling user
requirements; identifying shortcomings and gaps in the provision of required satellite data; and
developing recommendations for alleviating them. Particular emphasis was placed on working
closely with space agencies, international and regional organizations, and commercial organizations
on the implementation of these recommendations.

In general, timely information on the development of hazards as well as general information on risks,
hazards, and opportunities remains fragmented and difficult to locate. To begin to address these and
other gaps, prototype tools have begun to be developed. NOAA has sponsored a prototype
information server to demonstrate timely access to satellite-derived data and information products
"one stop shopping" to support various facets of disaster management. A number of agencies
have participated in the development of the server, providing links to their data and information
services, and developing additional support tools under the auspices of the DMSG. The Information
Tools Team oversees the development of the server.

Accomplishments
Since its inception in 1997, the work of the DMSG has focused on a primary objective to define user
requirements and provide specific recommendations to CEOS agencies for addressing gaps in
observations, products, and services to meet those requirements. Over the last few years, the DMSG
has conducted annual planning meetings and a series of workshops to implement its plan of work.
The work was initially supplemented by regional workshops to reach more emergency management
users. With over 300 participants from more than 140 organizations, the DMSG found strong
support among CEOS members and associates, as well as an enthusiastic reception from numerous
international, regional, and national emergency managers, including distinct interest from the
commercial sector. The DMSG also developed close ties to a number of international organizations
and has received substantial encouragement and recognition from these organizations.

The DMSG has developed a number of findings and recommendations over the last four years.
These have included twelve overarching recommendations derived from nine findings. The findings
note that disaster managers often recognize the value of, and are willing to use, new satellite
technology, but may be reluctant to do so, since the technology is unfamiliar and unproven in an
operational environment. The recommendations suggest ways that the space community might
respond (for example, by promoting mutual dialogue, creating user friendly tools, performing
compelling demonstrations, and using integrated approaches to create more user friendly products
and services). The full set of findings and overarching recommendations are listed at the end of this
report in Annex II. These include fostering more aggressive cooperation amongst space agencies,
with the commercial sector, and with international disaster organizations.

The overarching recommendations (Annex II) are in part, a consolidation of recommendations
common to several hazard teams. As a part of their assessment and identification of requirements,
each hazard team also developed hazard specific recommendations. Hazard team recommendations
and other accomplishments are included as a part of each hazard team report within this
publication. The Information Tools team has investigated a number of tools. One was a "hot
events" page of links to web sites with data and products for recent significant hazard events.
Another, a "contacts" page, points potential users to providers of data and products that can support
disaster management. The Information tools team report expands on these and other related
activities. Also, the DMSG has worked with the CEOS Working Group on Information Systems and
Services (WGISS) to find ways to leverage tools and capabilities developed by WGISS for broader
community use.

Cooperation with Space Agencies
In 2000, CEOS instructed the DMSG to promote and support use of space systems in all phases of
disaster support, with specific emphasis on the International Charter for Space and Major Disasters
(the "International Charter"). In this way, the work of the DMSG evolved from investigation and
demonstration of technical coordination of civil satellite systems in support of disaster management,
to defining Emergency Scenarios specifically to assist the International Charter. The International
Charter was initiated by the Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) and the European Space
Agency (ESA). It allows space agencies to conduct multi-mission tasking of existing satellites, on a
"best efforts" basis, as demonstrations of joint support for specific hazards. The Canadian Space
Agency (CSA), the United States National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the
Indian Space Research Organization have subsequently joined.

In sum, the DMSG has both supported and learned from the experiences of agencies that participate
in the International Charter and has helped to promote the demonstration of coordination of space
agency responses to specific disasters using guidelines based on the International Charter. For this
final report, leaders of the DMSG Hazard Teams, in collaboration with users and other experts from
around the world, have pulled together final recommendations to space agencies and developed
preliminary emergency scenarios for each hazard area.

International Cooperation
The DMSG has worked closely with key international organizations and partnerships that have roles
in coordinating aspects of disaster management. These are primarily the United Nations
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), the UN Office of Outer Space Affairs (OOSA)
which supports the UN Committee on Peaceful Use of Outer Space (COPUOS) in its work following
decisions taken at UNISPACE III, and as described above, the International Charter for Space and
Major Disasters. The ISDR is the successor to the UN International Decade for Disaster Reduction
(IDNDR) that ended in 1999. The ISDR is focusing on creating a global culture for disaster
prevention. COPUOS has launched a three-year work plan to develop an integrated, global disaster
management support system through its Scientific and Technical Subcommittee (STSC). An Action
Team on Disaster Management has been formed to implement the COPUOS work plan drawing, in
part, from the work of the DMSG. ISDR and OOSA have both maintained a close liaison with the
DMSG regarding coordination of disaster management related to remote sensing, including support
for the International Charter, through cross briefings, workshops and joint activities.

Cooperation with the Commercial Sector
The Group's work has also pursued a closer relationship with the commercial sector. In 2000, the
DMSG invited representatives from four commercial remote sensing operators (Spot Image,
RADARSAT International, Orbimage and Space Imaging) to convene a panel that would provide
perspectives on using satellite data for disaster management support. The panel was tasked to
introduce the capabilities of each of their respective companies, to identify barriers to improving the
use of satellite data for disaster management, and to identify potential areas for collaboration to
mitigate such barriers. Perceived barriers and some possible remedies were identified. In most cases
they mirrored barriers identified by users and space agencies. It was recognized that requirements
must be sufficiently identified; but they often are not. Funding and contracts must be in place and
available when disaster strikes; they often are not. Realistic training is essential and experience is
needed (for example, through pilot projects). It was also recognized that there are no robust stand-
alone solutions. Information must often be derived from multiple data sources and be integrated into
a usable format a particular challenge that requires a highly knowledgeable user or value-added
services provider.

Using CEOS Working Group on Information Systems and Services (WGISS) Information
Tools
The CEOS WGISS has responsibility for developing several information tools that can be useful for
DMSG activities. More recently, WGISS has supported the Information Tools team in developing a
contact list for providers of data and products that can support disaster management. DMSG has
also used the CEOS International Directory Network (IDN) database of contact information for
providers of Earth observation data and World Wide Web based tools developed by the Canadian
Centre for Remote Sensing (CCRS) to search the IDN.
For more information see:
http://wgiss.ceos.org

The Final DMSG Workshop, June 2001
The final DMSG workshop, held in Brussels, Belgium, focused on development of the Emergency
Scenarios for hazard support described above. The scenarios were developed to serve as guidelines
for identifying appropriate satellite data and products to support emergencies under specific disaster
circumstances, and to assist the Parties to the International Charter with scenario definition. Taken
together, the scenarios comprise a handbook of what to do, regarding the use of EO satellite data,
when each type of disaster occurs.

While the International Charter addresses the provision of data only during the crisis/response phase
of a disaster, the DMSG mandate has been to address all phases of disaster (mitigation,
preparedness/warning, and relief/response/recovery). Each hazard team determined which disaster
management phase(s) to define when they developed the Emergency Scenarios that are included in
this report.

The final DMSG Brussels workshop covered a number of key topics, including:
·Focus on the International Charter: Space and Major Disasters
·Update on the European Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES)
·Involvement of the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction & the Office of Outer Space
Affairs
·Briefing on the British small satellite constellation for disaster support

DMSG 2002 Workplan
The 2002 work-plan for DMSG is focused on refining hazard support scenarios, assisting CEOS
space agencies with consideration and responses to the specific recommendations, and working with
other bodies including UN OOSA, UN ISDR, the International Charter, and others, on a smooth
transition of the DMSG's work. This also includes the formulation of final recommendations for the
CEOS Plenary in Fall 2002 for a way forward in the future.

CEOS will also co-host, with UN OOSA and ESA, two regional workshops on the use of Earth
observing satellites for disaster support on behalf of CEOS one in Africa and one in Asia. These
will be similar to the workshop co-sponsored by OOSA, ESA, and the Government of Chile that was
held in Santiago, Chile in November 2000, entitled: "Use of Space Technology for Disaster
Management."

Synergy with the Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS)
The development of an IGOS Geohazards Theme is moving forward, and will play a key role in
continuing and supplementing the work initiated within the DMSG. Several of the DMSG hazard
teams (earthquake, landslide, and solid Earth dimensions of volcanoes) have joined the effort to
develop a theme proposal.

The Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) unites the major satellite and surface-based
systems for global environmental observations of the atmosphere, oceans and land. IGOS is a
strategic planning process, involving a number of partners, that links research, long-term monitoring
and operational programmes, as well as data producers and users, in a structure that helps to
determine observation gaps and identify the resources to fill observation needs. The IGOS
Partnership brings together a number of international organizations working on the observational
components of global environmental issues, both from a research perspective as well as an
operational point of view. The IGOS Partners have adopted a theme concept, which allows for a
coherent definition and development of an overall global strategy for observing selected areas of
common interest. These selected areas are based on the assessment of the relevant scientific and
operational priorities for overcoming deficiencies in current information. Several themes have
already begun, covering areas such as Oceans, the Carbon Cycle, the Water Cycle, Coasts/Coral
Reefs, and Atmospheric Chemistry. The IGOS Geohazards Theme will provide an integrated
geological/geophysical approach that addresses geo-spatial information needs for Volcanoes,
Earthquakes, and Ground Instability Hazards. For further information on IGOS see:
http://ioc.unesco.org/igospartners/igoshome.htm
DMSG Transition
The efforts of the DMSG have served to demonstrate the great value of inter-regional facilitation and
cooperation. The final phase of work for the DMSG is focusing on completing the mandate from the
CEOS Plenary, addressing areas where there is a need for refinement, and defining the way forward
in an orderly fashion. The work of the DMSG will continue in the various other groups with which it
has actively collaborated and supported in the past particularly, the Integrated Global Observing
Strategy (IGOS), the UN ISDR, and UN OOSA in its support of COPUOS. As described below,
continuing activity will occur under the prospective IGOS Geohazards Theme, in which there is
involvement of a number of experts from the DMSG Hazard Teams. In addition, CEOS will co-host
Regional Workshops, in collaboration with UN OOSA and ESA on "The Use of Space Technology
for Disaster Management." The workshops will bring together practitioners and space agencies that
have developed space technology solutions, including those responsible for dealing with disaster
management and space technology in developing countries. These workshops will, among other
things, enhance the awareness of managers and decision-makers involved in disaster management
to the potential benefits of using space-based technologies.

The Hazard Team reports and the Information Tools Team report that are included here in the Final
DMSG Annual Report are available in a limited number hardcopies, mini-CD's, and electronically
via the DMSG information server web site at
http://disaster.ceos.org.

Contacts:

Helen M. Wood, Chair, NOAA, USA
Richard Ohlemacher, Secretariat, NOAA, USA
Telephone:
1-301-457-5120
Telephone:
1-301-713-2024
x201
Fax:
301-457-5184
Fax:
301-713-2032
E-mail: Helen.Wood%40noaa.gov

E-mail: Richard.Ohlemacher%40noaa.gov

For further information on the team reports or other team activities, please contact the team leaders:

Earthquake Hazard Team
Jerome Bequignon ESA, ESRIN, Italy
Telephone: 39-6-94180656
E-mail:
Jerome.Bequignon%40esrin.esa.it

Ren Capes
NPA Group, UK
Telephone: 44-1732-865023
E-mail:
ren%40npagroup.co.uk

Fire Hazard Team
Charles Dull
U. S. Department of Agriculture
Telephone: 1-202-205-1416
E-mail:
cdull%40fs.fed.us

Ashbindu Singh
UNEP, Environmental Information & Assessment
Program ­ North America
Telephone: 1-605-594-6107
E-mail:
singh%40edcmail.cr.usgs.gov

Timothy Lynham
Canadian Forest Service
Telephone: 1-705-541-5537
E-mail:
tlynham%40NRCan.gc.ca

Flood Hazard Team
Terry Pultz
CCRS, Canada
Telephone: 1-613-947-1316
E-mail:
Terry.Pultz%40ccrs.nrca.gc.ca

Rod Scofield
NOAA, USA
Telephone: 1-301-763-8251 x148
E-mail: Rod.Scofield%40noaa.gov

Ice Hazard Team
Cheryl Bertoia
National Ice Center, USA
Telephone: 1-301-457-5678 x101
E-mail:
cheryl.bertoia%40noaa.gov

Bruce Ramsay
Canadian Ice Service, Environment Canada
Tel: 1-613-996-4671
E-mail:
bruce.ramsay%40ec.gc.ca Mike Manore
Canadian Ice Service, Environment Canada
Tel: 1-613-996-4552
E-mail:
Mike.Manore%40ec.gc.ca Landslide Hazard Team
Vern Singhroy
CCRS, Canada
Telephone: 1-613-947-1215
E-mail:
Vern.Singhroy%40ccrs.nrcan.gc.ca

Hiroshi Ohkura
National Research Institute for
Earth Sciences and Disaster Prevention, Japan
Telephone: 81-298-51-1611 x334
E-mail:
ohkura%40ess.bosai.go.jp

Oil Spill Hazard Team
Thomas Lankester
National Remote Sensing Centre, UK
Telephone: 44-1252-362068
E-mail:
thomas.lankester%40infoterra-global.com

Volcanic Hazards Team
Gary Ellrod
NOAA, USA
Telephone: 1-301-763-8204 x140
E-mail:
Gary.Ellrod%40noaa.gov

Rosalind Helz
U. S. Geological Survey, USA
Telephone: 1-703-648-6086
E-mail:
rhelz%40usgs.gov

Geoffrey Wadge
University of Reading, UK
Telephone: 44-1189-318-741
E-mail:
gw%40mail.nerc-essc.ac.uk

Information Tools Team
Levin Lauritson
NOAA, USA
Telephone: 1-301-457-5120
E-mail:
Levin.Lauritson%40noaa.gov

Drought Hazard Team
Hartmut Grassl
Max Planck Institute, Germany
Telephone: 49-40-41173-225
E-mail:
grassl%40dkrz.de

D. P. Rao
National Remote Sensing Agency, India
Telephone: 91-40-307-8360
E-mail:
director%40nrsa.gov.in

T E A M R E P O R T
Earthquake

EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS
CEOS DISASTER
MANAGEMENT
SUPPORT
GROUP

______________________________________________________________________________

SUMMARY This Report is a summary of the current and projected utility of Earth Observation (EO) space
technology applied to the management of earthquake risk. The study is compiled by the
Earthquake Hazard Team of the Disaster Management Support Group of the Committee on Earth
Observation Satellites compiled the study.

Currently, operational EO capabilities have some limited use in the mitigation and response phases
of earthquake risk management, but not in the warning phase.

In terms of mitigation, EO is useful, particularly in developing countries, for base-mapping for
emergency relief logistics, and estimation of settlement and structure vulnerability (e.g. building
design) and exposure (e.g. proximity to active areas). In the response phase, EO's improving
contribution is in damage-mapping ­ of prime concern to relief agencies that need to locate possible
victims and structures at risk. EO is also valuable to the insurance industry, which needs to assess
losses (the insurance industry is important because of the influence it has over the instigation of and
adherence to earthquake-sensitive building codes). As for the warning phase (and in the case of
earthquakes) this means prediction of an impending event, and any warning must meet stringent
accuracy requirements. Currently, no EO approach comes near to the required level of reliability.

Improvements in damage mapping capability are marked by the new generation of Very High
Resolution (VHR) missions, such as SpaceImaging's Ikonos-2, though bottlenecks in the data supply
chain strain any claim to offer a Near-Real-Time (NRT) service (and additionally, the system's utility
is reliant on cloud-free conditions). Although at the time of writing, IKONOS-2 is the only civilian
VHR mission in operation, a number of similar missions are promised for the future (including
cloud-penetrating radar) which should promote competition and be efficacious to faster delivery of
less expensive data.

SAR interferometry (InSAR) holds increasing utility for the mapping of seismic ground deformation
(as widely applied over Turkey for the Izmit earthquake of August 17 1999). By using InSAR to
study pre- co- and post-seismic deformations, the technique contributes to the mitigation phase by
adding to the spatial understanding of fault mechanism dynamics and strain. InSAR is also useful in
the response phase as ground displacement can correlate with damage in built environments.
Though a remarkable capability, system and process constraints preclude a routine or global
application. There are, however, promising developments underway with the development of
naturally occurring and man-made SAR signal reflector arrays in two hybrid techniques called
Permanent Scatterer InSAR and Corner Reflector InSAR respectively. The three complementary
InSAR techniques together, in combination with an appropriate SAR data acquisition strategy,
promise an economic substitute or supplement for expensive ground-based GPS and laser-ranging
networks in many circumstances.

Recently, commendable efforts have been made by a number of space agencies under the auspices
of the International Charter on Space and Major Disaster' to acquire and disseminate `response'
data in terms of damage mapping for some earthquake events. We consider this a major step
forward in co-operation and co-ordination, and foresee significant progress as other agencies enroll.
However, in general, such provisions are not co-ordinated or integrated with other services, and are
not widely accessible to, or understood by the earthquake disaster management community. With
the hopefully increasing availability of VHR data (and possible constellations of VHR satellites), co-ordination of effort and motivation to acquire imagery will become paramount.

In terms of capability, it is the conclusion of this report that base-mapping and damage-mapping will
become the main operational contributions of EO to earthquake disaster management, with
operational strain-mapping showing good potential for the future.

SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS Adoption of the following specific recommendations would considerably enhance the utility of EO
space technology for earthquake risk management:

Recommendations that are technically feasible now:
1. Compile base-maps of high risk areas: Expand existing global database of seismic risk zones,
and integrate with population distribution, infrastructure and building stock databases, seismic
history, relevant geology, known strain and EO/topographic map merges for base-maps.
2. SAR data providers to optimize the raw data supply chain for InSAR analysis.
3. SAR data providers to consider the acquisition of strategic datasets over high-risk areas to
facilitate Permanent Scatterer InSAR strain mapping and co-seismic interferogram generation.
4. Undertake Permanent Scatterer InSAR over high risk areas to identify virtual positioning arrays
and produce 9 year (period covered by ERS SAR data archive) record of strain.
5. Continue investigation into areas of earthquake forecasting research (e.g. thermal,
electromagnetic).
6. Agency certification of EO products.

Recommendations for the future:
1. Support diversity of VHR missions to improve temporal resolution and coverage.
2. Bring VHR providers into the
International Charter to facilitate damage assessment (though
CNES already a signatory and SPOT 5 should make significant contribution).
3. Lobby for planned VHR SAR missions to be InSAR-friendly, e.g. orbit control, metadata, and
strategic acquisition.

Recommendations internal to the CEOS working group:
1. Consider the instigation of a single co-ordinating, expert body that will serve the EO
requirements of the earthquake disaster management community, whilst negating any need for
them to become involved in EO technically.
2. Look for common recommendations between disaster types for a possible method of
prioritisation.
3. Determine audience(s) for the Disaster Management Support Group website and establish links
from/to other relevant sites.

I.
SCOPE AND
BACKGROUND

Due to the devastating socio-economic impact of earthquakes, considerable scientific and
technological effort is expended towards understanding and assisting in the disaster phases of
mitigation, warning and response. However, this effort can result in inflated aspirations or claims.
For this reason, this document, if it is to be well grounded, must carefully weigh the claims and
evidence for the effectiveness of results. Furthermore, especially inasmuch as disaster management
practitioners are responsible for lives and property, there is every need to ensure that proposed
science/technological solutions or contributions are reliable as well as effective. There is little room
in this community for techniques or methods, which have not been proven. A comprehensive
literature survey forms the basis for this report.

In this document, categories of EO capability are distinguished thus:
Operational: Where science is proven and technology, systems and processes exist to provide a
continuing operational service (not necessarily everywhere).
Developmental: Methodology/technology has been validated and is in the process of being
implemented operationally.
Research: Results are uncertain or form the basis for ongoing research and understanding. Not
expected to be directly used by the practitioner. The mechanisms and occurrence of earthquakes
are not understood as well as they are in the case of most other disasters. For this reason, in
comparison with other disasters, more emphasis and effort are placed on earthquake-related
research.

Three phases of operation are recognised ­ mitigation, warning and response. For earthquakes
specifically, these terms mean the following:
Mitigation: Involves risk reduction and monitoring to lessen socio-economic impact of a possible
earthquake event. Can be GIS-based and include mapping of population vulnerability (including
building stock) and exposure as input to planning and building regulations. Mapping strain
(particularly by ground-based networks) and geology, planning logistics for response scenarios,
planning evacuation routes, public education programmes.
Warning: Forecasting and warning processes and systems. For earthquakes, this implies predicting
an event to within 15km, a few days, and one order of magnitude ­ a current impossibility by
accepted scientific methods.
Response: Mapping damage extent and nature; primarily for purposes of relief. The information
required in the first hours after an event is not necessarily the same as that required days or weeks
afterwards, e.g. mapping damage for insurance loss estimation.

The rest of the document discusses each of these three phases in turn, considering:
· The disaster manager's information requirement
· The current EO capability, stating whether the capability is operational, developmental or for
research
· Ideal EO capability
· Recommendations for next steps

II.
MITIGATION

Earthquake disaster mitigation means trying to protect the public against the possible impact of
future earthquake events. The obvious course for action is to remove populations from zones of
known high seismic risk. In most cases this is not economically practical, and, particularly in
developing countries, the reverse is in fact occurring.

Alternatively, it is possible but very costly to construct an environment, which will withstand almost
any earthquake. But the high cost is often prohibitive and therefore dictates the need for an
accurate assessment of the exposure and vulnerability of settlements in terms of the probability of
occurrence and magnitude, and the accelerations likely to be experienced. EO can certainly help in
mapping exposure (e.g. settlement proximity to areas at risk) and can go some way in identifying
vulnerability (e.g. building characterisation). Assessing the probability of occurrence, magnitude and
likely accelerations, however, is an extremely difficult task in regions where earthquakes occur
frequently, and a practically impossible challenge where they are rare.

Where there are enough seismic data, the frequency of large-magnitude events can be gauged by
extrapolation from the frequency of smaller events. This, however, is providing only a first
approximation; to get a better assessment, geophysicists try to locate, map, and understand local
faults and their frequency and mechanism of rupture. This understanding is placed in the context of
the regional tectonic setting of crustal motion (neo-tectonics). In areas of low seismicity (where
earthquakes can still pose a serious threat), assessments of frequency and magnitude are based on
geological evidence (slickensides, sand blows, etc.) as well as tectonics. It is important to recognise
that this fundamental geophysical research makes a direct and important link to the practical issues
of effective earthquake mitigation.

There is consequently a requirement for a variety of spatial and temporal information
from different sources: demographics, building stock characterisation, seismic history and neo-
tectonic understanding, the location of faults and an understanding of their mechanism dynamics,
including fault motion and strain.

Information requirement summary
· Demographics
· Infrastructure (communications, utility and high risk installations, hospitals, relief centres)
· Building stock
· Seismic history
· Neo-tectonics
· Lithology
· Fault locations and fault mechanism dynamics
· Strain estimates and budgets

Information user
· National to local authorities (planners, building regulators).
· Government agencies with specific charge to mitigate against earthquake risk.
· National survey agencies.
· Possible disaster management co-ordinating body (see recommendations).
· Possibly some relief agencies (planning for disaster scenario).
· Insurance/re-insurance industry (assess liability).
· Risk management consultancies.
· Private enterprise (to mitigate financial impact and losses)

Current EO capability
Following are areas of contribution of space technology to earthquake disaster mitigation (ranging
from operational to research):

Demographics and infrastructure: Basic maps simply showing the location of settlements are
still considered secret intelligence in many parts of the world. After the Afghanistan earthquake of
February 20 1998 which killed approximately 10,000 people relief efforts were hampered by the
unavailability of such simple maps ­ aid workers simply did not know the location of affected
villages. High resolution, e.g. SPOT panchromatic, and VHR data could play a significant role in
this type of base-mapping of all regions in the developing world in zones of high seismic risk.
Augmenting the locations of settlements, risk managers ideally want databases of building stock.
With this information, rapid estimates of damage can be made for any given earthquake scenario,
either pre-event for planning, or post-event for response. With the right political will, such databases
could be instigated now within a GIS environment, coincided with other data layers including
seismic history, geology, known strain, locations of relief centres, hospitals, etc. This would have the
added benefit of highlighting vulnerability and exposure in a more systematic and consistent fashion
than is currently performed. Such a database would be invaluable in providing rapid base
information to those administering relief and managing disaster logistics. Status: operational (if
resourced).

Tectonic setting: The regional tectonic setting of an area forms the basis for assessing its
seismicity. In some cases, e.g. Japan and Southern California, the setting is well known, but in
others, e.g. Central and Eastern US, the origin of seismicity is less clear. Several space-based
techniques continue to contribute significantly to our understanding of regional tectonics including
satellite geodesy (satellite laser ranging, very long baseline interferometry and use of GPS). Radar,
and in the future laser altimetry, is useful, especially over the ocean to map the geoid and gravity
field. Even satellite data on the magnetic field are used to study and interpret regional tectonics.
Geophysical contributions from these satellites will increase as their capabilities in terms of sensitivity
and resolution improves. Status: operational.

Neo-tectonics: Recent tectonic activity is closely associated with contemporary seismicity and is
studied in several ways using satellite observations. Both optical and radar data are used to image,
for example, active fault scarps, actively growing folds at the surface that record buried tip-line
thrusting and stream offsets or topographic breaks of slope that relate to active faulting.
Multispectral or hyperspectral optical satellite data may, under some circumstances, be used for
lithological discrimination that must be mapped to allow geo-chronological correlation. Most of
these techniques require as good a resolution as is available, though Landsat TM at 30m (and now
ETM) is often the standard tool. In addition, satellite data can be used to map lithology within a
seismic zone to infer potential mechanical responses to an earthquake, such as liquefaction in flat
lying coastal or lacustrine environments or slope failure for a continuum of rock competencies.
Status: operational.

Lineament mapping: These often-obscure features are observed in synoptic space images as, for
example, alignments of vegetation and topography. They may be the surface manifestation of
active faults and evidence of seismicity. Virtually constant (solar or radar) illumination angle can
seriously bias results and the relationship between lineaments and seismicity is not very strong.
Nevertheless, in areas susceptible to occasional earthquakes and/or where other data are sparse,
lineament mapping is a useful operational tool. Visible and infrared imagery with moderate (>10m)
resolution is generally used. Synthetic Aperture radar (SAR) may also be used but the self-
illumination of radar can create false impressions of linearity. Status: operational.

Fault-motion and strain: For two decades satellite laser ranging and very long baseline
interferometry have been used to monitor strain and crustal motion respectively in the vicinity of
active faults. These techniques have since been superseded by GPS as rapid development of
receivers has made it possible to install them in dense networks to monitor large areas, e.g. the Los
Angeles Basin and the whole of Japan. Using these arrays, it is possible to improve maps of known
faults, detect possible unknown faults, and locate places on these faults which are locked and
therefore susceptible to sudden rupture and earthquakes.

Measurement of ground strain and stress accumulation is a direct and valuable input to models of
earthquake risk, and for prone countries that have the money, wide-area GPS arrays are now used
to monitor horizontal ground motions. In recent years, InSAR has demonstrated the ability to map
line-of-sight ground motions, and work is underway to develop hybrid InSAR technologies to
supplement or even replace GPS networks.

Three complementary InSAR techniques are appropriate in earthquake risk management:
conventional (imaging) InSAR, Permanent Scatterer InSAR (PSInSAR), and Corner Reflector InSAR
(CRInSAR).

Conventional InSAR: This technique can deliver spectacular measurements of the large-scale
ground deformations associated with main earthquake events, provided the temporal separation
and horizontal baseline between the two SAR scenes used are kept within appropriate limits. Many
examples exist. Such results on their own offer unique input to strain models and support the
understanding of fault mechanisms, and have even been successfully used for the verification of
insurance claims. Though usually applicable to the main co-seismic event, and so is perhaps a
`response' technique, the deformation information can provide valuable understanding of fault
mechanisms and thus input to forecast models in the mitigation phase. However, conventional
InSAR is not considered a tool for the measurement of the millimetre-scale motions associated with
interseismic activity; the displacement resolution of the technique becomes degraded by temporal
decorrelation and/or atmospheric heterogeneity resulting in phase ambiguites of similar orders of
magnitude as the ground displacements anticipated.

Corner reflector InSAR: This technique involves the placement of man-made radar reflectors,
against which precise, sub-centimetre measurements of displacement can be measured over time.
CRInSAR is appropriate for the motion monitoring of specific structures (dams, bridges, power
stations, etc) or more localised areas at risk The attraction of using corner reflectors is their
positional stability, zero maintenance requirement and, in particular, their persisting high coherence
over the time-spans needed to detect tectonic motion. However, the techinique is invasive and
there can be issues of reflector security on the ground.

Permanent scatterer InSAR: This technique involves the processing of more than 30
interferograms over the same place to identify a network of temporally-stable, highly reflective
ground features ­ permanent scatterers. The phase history of each scatterer is then extracted to
provide interpolated maps of average annual ground motions, or more importantly, the motion
history, up to 9 years (length of SAR data archive), of each individual scatterer, thus providing a
`virtual' GPS network with `instant' history. Due to the relatively high density of scatterers that occur
in built environments (a few hundred per square kilometre) and the large number of atmosphere
samples (SAR scenes) used, the heterogeneity of the atmosphere can be accurately modelled so that
measurements of sub-millimetre accuracy can be calculated. A limitation of PSInSAR is the lack of
control over precise scatterer location, but with the densities obtained in built environments this is
not considered an issue for the mapping of interseismic ground motions.

Status for InSAR techniques: Developmental & operational (dependent on land cover
characteristics and SAR data coverage).

Ideal EO capability
InSAR synergy: None of the three InSAR techniques on their own offer a complete solution to the
monitoring of co- and interseismic ground motions. Each technique has its own advantages and
disadvantages. The degraded resolution of conventional InSAR renders the technique more
appropriate to the mapping of larger scale displacements in terms of both magnitude and coverage,
in other words it is more appropriate to the measurement of main earthquake events. Given
sufficient repeat SAR data, the sub-millimetre accuracy of PSInSAR does represent an effective tool
for the measurement of interseismic ground motions. However, the PSInSAR model makes
assumptions about the atmosphere that might not be true from one urban conurbation to another
(within the same SAR frame) that might be separated, for example, by 25km of non-scattering, rural
farmland. Interpolating PS results between such large distances could be misleading. Depending on
the density of scatterers, PSInSAR is more appropriate to the monitoring of contiguously developed
areas. The advantage of CRInSAR is that the target against which measurements are made can be
sited exactly where required - across a bridge, around a dam, along a pipeline, across a fault.
Because of the invasive nature of CRInSAR and the costs associated with the manufacture and
deployment of reflectors, CRInSAR is considered more appropriate to localised installation1.

If we assume an existing 30-scene + archive of SAR data, and a promised continuity of repeat
acquisitions, then the InSAR technique to apply is determined by a) area to be monitored, b) ground
velocity, and c) distribution of existing scatterers. Consider the table below.

Apply this
technique
When
Area to be
monitored
Ground velocity
(slow= interseismic)
(fast=coseismic)
Scatterer
distribution
Conventional
InSAR
Regional
Fast
Poor
CRInSAR
Structure
specific
Slow or fast
Poor
PSInSAR
Contiguous
development
Slow or fast
Good

Assuming a supply of data, the ideal strategy might be as follows:
· Continuous acquisition of data over the area at every opportunity to enable PSInSAR as soon as
possible.
· Installation of CRs around sensitive developments or faults. Measurements against these can be
made after only two post installation acquisitions.
· The acquisition strategy allows for the generation of a conventional interferogram should an
earthquake of large magnitude strike.

1 A new and promising hybrid to CRInSAR is the development of a small and inexpensive `active transponder' that will emit SAR frequency radiation when illuminated by the same. Providing such devices can prove phase-stable over time, the possible applications are widespread. If a mission existed that could acquire coverage say twice a day, coherence should be adequate for
all but the most rainforested of areas. This, plus continuous additions to the interferogram time-
series could allow the atmosphere to be modelled out. If such a mission existed, conventional
InSAR on its own might enable the reliable measurement of interseismic motions (above some
millimetre threshold).

It is important to note that in all InSAR techniques, phase change measurements are line-of-sight
between the satellite and the target. The InSAR result on its own does not de-couple horizontal from
vertical displacements. The technique also becomes progressively less sensitive if the vector of
displacement nears that of the satellite track. For these reasons, until such times as mulit-view angle
satellite constellations exist, InSAR techniques are likely to be largely supplemental to other ground-based monitoring systems.

Recommendations for earthquake disaster mitigation
1. Compile base-maps and building stock databases of high risk areas: Expand existing global
database of seismic risk zones, and integrate with population distribution, vulnerability and
exposure, seismic history, relevant geology, known strain, estimated InSAR coherence levels and
optical VHR-derived base-maps.
2. SAR data providers to optimize the raw data supply chain for InSAR analysis.
3. SAR data providers to consider the acquisition of strategic datasets over high-risk areas to
facilitate Permanent Scatterer InSAR strain mapping and co-seismic interferogram generation.
4. Undertake Permanent Scatterer InSAR over high risk areas to establish virtual positioning arrays
and produce 9 year record of strain.
5. Agency certification of EO products.

III.
WARNING

A prediction of earthquake can be extremely dangerous. It can ignite fear and anxiety, resulting in
disorder and chaos and a level of damage and injury that might approach that of the predicted
earthquake itself. It is for this reason that some authorities have established strict protocols for the
evaluation and issuance of earthquake warnings. In addition to being validated and issued by an
official authority, an effective prediction should be specific and accurate in three regards: time, place,
and magnitude. The accuracies required vary with respect to the purpose of the prediction: public
alerts should be accurate to within (about) 15km of the epicenter, a few days of occurrence and
within 1 unit of magnitude. For other purposes (for example, advanced warning to officials and
public works) they may be less accurate but, in this case, care must be given to avoid public release
or disclosure.

There are no generally accepted operational methods for predicting earthquakes. Although some
successes have been claimed, they are questionable and, in any case, not sufficiently reliable.
Techniques being investigated range from the reaction of animals, to inert gas content of well waters.
Variations in the electrical field have also been claimed to be precursors to earthquakes. Some of
these "signals" have been observed from space and reported in Russian and Chinese literature.
However, the validity of this technique is hotly disputed. Thermal anomalies, particularly over the
ocean, are also claimed as earthquake precursors but here again the reliability (and physics) of the
process is questioned. While research on these space-based (and other) techniques continues, it
seems that we are still far from a method, which will provide predictions of sufficient accuracy to
meet operational requirements.

Information requirement summary
· Timing of event accurate to within a few days.
· Location of predicted epicentre, accurate to within around 15km.
· Magnitude of event accurate to within 1 unit of measurement.

Current EO capability
None. Claims that thermal and electromagnetic signals may provide warnings are being
investigated.

Ideal EO capability
Science and technical issues not understood sufficiently to recommend any ideal EO capability.

Recommendations for earthquake disaster preparedness/warning
Maintain awareness of, and support investigations into areas of earthquake forecasting research (e.g.
thermal, electromagnetic).

IV.
RESPONSE

Earthquakes can completely devastate a region in a very short space of time, so it is necessary to
provide emergency help quickly. Emergency managers must therefore have some information, even
if it is approximate, on what they are facing within hours after the event. The urgency for
information following a severe earthquake is so immediate that some major relief organizations
depend on damage assessment models. These models will contain data on building stock,
infrastructure, utilities and other important aspects of the built environment (e.g. hazardous chemical
stockpiles). In addition, the models will contain data relative to seismic acceleration (depth to
bedrock, soil type etc). With specific data on location, depth, magnitude and first arrival of a seismic
event, these models can provide very valuable timely approximations to the extent of damage. An
example of such methodology, though still in its infancy, is the Russian `Extremum' system. Note
that the database recommended for the mitigation phase is relevant to response.

The information required is a function of both time and geographic distribution. For buried victims
to have any chance of being brought out alive, information on the location of damage and access
routes is needed from immediately after the event to within a few days. The information need not
be cartographically accurate, as most emergency services able to respond within this time frame will
have some knowledge of local geography. It is when more formal, non-local relief arrives that
accurate, georeferenced maps become essential. Registered data are also needed to map the fires,
which frequently accompany earthquakes.

In the days following an earthquake, more detailed information on structural damage is needed. As
days become weeks, additional information becomes less and less important. The rate at which the
life-saving value of new information decays depends, in large part, on the geographic extent and
communication infrastructure of the affected area and the concentration of population. In sparsely
populated mountainous areas for example, information on villages affected by large earthquakes
may be valuable days and even weeks after the event as rescue teams try to locate people in need of
assistance.

It is important to recognise the needs of the insurance industry and the risk management
consultancies that serve them. This is because the insurance industry influences the instigation and
adherence to earthquake-sensitive building codes, therefore mitigating against future loss of life and
damage. Insurers need to map risk and damage to assess their liability and validate claims. To this
user, there is no NRT requirement, damage maps still being useful weeks after an event.

Information requirement summary
· Location, nature and extent of damage
· Databases of infrastructure and building stock
· Location of fires
· Location of utilities (including both those of potential use and those of high-risk, e.g. chemical
plants, nuclear reactors, dams, etc)
· Changes to access (e.g. roads or bridges destroyed)
· Extent of any flooding

Information user
· Emergency services
· Relief agencies
· National and local authorities
· Insurers and risk management consultancies
· National surveys and mapping agencies
· Construction industry
· Media

Current EO capability
Damage mapping using image-differencing: As stated within the mitigation section, pre-prepared GIS databases and delivery systems would be of value in the response phase when relief
services are planning logistics to reach victims and make safe damaged structures. Using post-event
acquisitions, the EO imagery contained within such databases could also be used to generate
difference images to assist in the mapping of damage. 1m VHR data, such as that acquired by
IKONOS-2 can map damage directly to useful degrees of accuracy, though utility is much improved
given pre-event imagery with which post-event imagery can be differenced (though differences in
incidence angle and solar azimuth between the two acquisitions can cause mis-classifications).

Recent work performed for the International Charter on the Indian Gujurat earthquake illustrated
some of the difficulties in classifying damage (Chiles, NPA, 2001). 10m resolution pre- and post-
event SPOT panchromatic imagery was acquired and differenced to map change. Results were then
compared against a single post-event IKONOS image where damage was directly and thus more
easily identifiable. Only one classification of damage out of 30 made from the SPOT temporal
difference image was verified as correct using the single post-event 1m IKONOS image. Differing
incidence angle and solar azimuth between the pre- and post-event SPOT acquisitions caused many
misclassifications of the SPOT data.

Large or brightly reflective building
24
Flat ground or possible low
buildings
3
Sites with no
apparent
damage
Trees and ground only
2
Collapsed building
1
IKONOS
interpretation of
sites from SPOT
change detection
processing
Sites with
damage
Partially damaged building
0
Comparison of damage classification between SPOT temporal difference image and single post-event IKONOS

Useful results have also been produced using pre- and post-event 5.8m resolution IRS data over
Izmit with effective results, clearly revealing many of the changes to the built environment that
occurred due to the quake. The use of IRS data is not currently an NRT application and so is only of
relevance to those estimating losses and planning for reconstruction. Ideally, pre- and post-event
VHR data should be used for the most accurate damage classification, as there was still some
confusion with the single post-event IKONOS scene caused by the extreme density of building stock
in this particular Indian town. Status: operational (if resourced and cloud free).

Non-NRT deformation field mapping: There can be correlation between ground deformation
and damage when mapped using conventional InSAR, though damage in this case is dependent on
building design and the ground accelerations experienced. This is not currently an NRT application,
and so is largely of relevance to those estimating losses and planning for reconstruction. However, it
can and has been of significance to those analysing vulnerability and exposure in efforts to re-site
populations to safer locations. Status: operational (where land cover characteristics and SAR
data coverage allow).

Damage mapping using night-time differencing: Some useful `emergency' assessments of
urban damage have been made by the Japanese Disaster Prevention Research Institute of Kyoto by
differencing pre- and post-event night-time optical imagery from NOAA's AVHRR instrument which
makes up to six passes a day. By mapping changes in the distribution of artificial lighting, estimates
can be made of potential damage. However, caution is required due to the low, 2.5km spatial
resolution, the fact that damage to a single power station might cause large regions to be blacked-
out, and of course issues of cloud cover. Status: operational (where cloud-free imagery exists)

Ideal EO capability
An ideal capability would allow us to map the extent and nature of damage within hours and the
deformation field within a few days. Such an NRT service could only be facilitated by multi-platform
VHR constellations, preferably SAR, which would have the all-weather capability needed. Besides
the hardware in space, supply chains would have to be optimised to ensure the fastest data access
and delivery mechanisms.

It is likely that such constellations will one day exist, but be commercially driven and operated by a
number of disparate consortia. There are consequently issues of co-ordination to ensure the most
efficient imaging regimes for a given event, and commercial/altruistic motivation (who is going to
pay?). These issues are common to all disaster types that will benefit from VHR - being the first to
image a spectacular volcano is of high promotional value, but the loss of crops after a storm?

Recommendations for earthquake disaster response
1. Compile base-maps of high risk areas: Expand existing global databases of seismic risk zones,
and integrate with population centres, infrastructure and building stock databases, seismic
history, relevant geology, known strain and optical VHR-derived base-maps.
2. SAR data providers to optimize the raw data supply chain for InSAR analysis.
3. Bring VHR providers into the International Charter to facilitate damage assessment (note CNES
is already a signatory and SPOT 5 should make significant contribution).
4. Lobby VHR providers for assurance of co-ordinated satellite tasking, data acquisition and rapid
data access.
5. Support diversity of VHR missions (in order to improve temporal resolution).
6. Agency certification of EO products.
Proposed Earthquake Emergency Scenario
Activation:
· Dependent upon issues of vulnerability and exposure vs magnitude of event.
· Dependent on level of threat to life and / or property (threshold?).
Obtain background information

Check if considered
1.

Location and depth of event (lat, long, km)

2.
Magnitude: Richter (energy release) and Modified Mercalli Intensity (effects)

3.

Date and time of event

4.

Responsible relief agencies

5.
Contact information for relief agencies (including on-scene commander/coordinator)

6.

Exposure, i.e. proximity of population centers, structures at risk

7.
Vulnerability, i.e. information on earthquake resistance (e.g. building design)

8.
Availability of base maps for logistics and communication

Map damage and extent (utility for base-mapping also)
· Relevant satellites: SPOT-1/2/4, SPOT 5, IRS, IKONOS-2, QuickBird.
· Pre- and post-event imagery imperative for SPOT-1/2/4 and IRS, but desirable for all listed to improve
damage classification accuracy.

1.
Availability of pre-event imagery (all listed satellites)

2. Availability
of
post-event
imagery (all listed satellites)

3.
New acquisitions required (International Charter signatories?)

4.
Order pre- and post-event imagery where already acquired

5.
Submit programming request for new post-event imagery

6.
Register data and difference, classify damage, package, courier/ftp results

Map deformation field
· Relevant satellites: ERS-1/2, ENVISAT and Radarsat-1.
· Relevant techniques dependent on previous strategies: Conventional InSAR, PSInSAR, CRInSAR.

1.
Check ERS/ENVISAT archive for minimum threshold repeat coverage for PSInSAR

2.
Check ERS/ENVISAT archive for post-event acquisitions for conventional InSAR
compliant pre- and post-event pairings, and to update CRInSAR analysis if relevant

3.
Check Radarsat archive for post-event acquisitions for conventional InSAR compliant
pre- and post-event pairings, and to update CRInSAR analysis if relevant

4.
Submit programming request for new post-event acquisitions

5. Process,
interpret,
package, courier/ftp results

Priorities for image acquisition planning
1.
Post-event VHR acquisitions for damage and base mapping

2.
Post-event ERS/Radarsat for InSAR deformation field mapping

Notes:
· Data delivery channels to be determined, e.g. via space agency or distributor?
· Specifications of finished product to be determined.
·
Delivery mechanism and protocols to be determined.

CEOS DMSG EARTHQUAKE TEAM

1. Jerome Bequignon (Co-Team Lead): European Space Agency, ESRIN, Italy.
2. Ren Capes (Co-Team Lead): NPA Group, UK.
3. John Filson: US Geological Survey, Earthquake Program (USA).
4. Didier Massonnet: CNES (France).
5. Hiroshi Ohkura: Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (Japan).
6. Jean Bonnin: Institut de Physique du Globe
7. Rosalind Helz: US Geological Survey (USA).
8. Ronald Bloom: NASA, Jet Propulsion Laboratory (USA).
9. Elaine Padovani: Science Advisor for Disaster Information, US Geological Survey (USA).
10. Susan McLean: NOAA (USA).

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General geology
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geomorphic significance. International journal of remote sensing 13: (10) 1891-1901.
2. Ameen, Ms (1991). Possible forced folding in the Taurus-Zagros belt of northern Iraq. Geological
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3. Astaras, T (1994). The present state of the remote-sensing applications to geological sciences in
Greece. International journal of remote sensing 15: (6) 1251-1258.
4. Berger, Z; Williams, Thl; Anderson, Dw (1992). Geologic stereo mapping of geologic structures
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Photogrammetric engineering and remote sensing 62: (5) 525-531.
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Ground networks
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Miscellaneous
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Other techniques
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Tectonics and faulting
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18. Lyberis, N; Yurur, T; Chorowicz, J; Kasapoglu, E; Gundogdu, N (1992). The east Anatolian fault
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19. Makarova, Nv; Makarov, Vi (1996). Transverse tectonic zonality of the Kerch peninsula from
space survey data. Earth observation and remote sensing 13: (5) 799-810.
20. Mann, P; Taylor, Fw; Edwards, Rl; Ku, Tl (1995). Actively evolving microplate formation by
oblique collision and sideways motion along strike-slip faults - an example from the northeastern
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the northeastern regions of the Okavango swamps, Botswana. Journal of African earth sciences
17: (1) 23-32.
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25. Ravat, Dn; Hinze, Wj; Taylor, Pt (1993). European tectonic features observed by MAGSAT.
Tectonophysics 220: (1-4) 157-173.
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FIRE HAZARD TEAM REPORT
CEOS DISASTER
MANAGEMENT
SUPPORT
GROUP

_____________________________________________________________________________________

SUMMARY

The purpose of this document is to review potential requirements for space-based observations in
fire management. This report was developed under the auspices of the Disaster Management
Support Group (DMSG) of the G-7 Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). This
document was prepared by an international working group, which has experience in the field of
remote sensing as applied to wildland fire management. The fire team identifies, in this paper, seven
major requirements. These requirements could substantially improve wildland fire management
programs, should CEOS augment existing satellites or develop new Earth observation satellites as
recommended. Requirements address the different temporal, spatial, and spectral characteristics
needed in different phases of fire management and geographic areas of interest. These requirements
include fuels mapping, risk assessment, detection, monitoring, mapping, burned area recovery, and
smoke management.

The following 11 recommendations support these requirements:

1. Improve satellite technologies and methods to generate accurate, timely, updateable, global
wildland fire fuel maps. Provide high-resolution data sets to validate existing methods and test
models in tropical, boreal, and temperate forestry environments.
2. Develop data for meso-scale weather models to facilitate daily and 1-2 day prediction of dead
and live fuel moisture to augment or replace requirements for ground weather stations.
3. Provide data for decision support models on prescribed fire smoke management and air quality
assessment.
4. In geographic areas where rapid response is required, develop an operational satellite wildland
fire detection and monitoring system with an ultimate fire detection time of 5 minutes, a repeat
time of 15 minutes, a spatial resolution of 250 meters, a maximum of 5% false alarms. This
should also have real time data transmission to local ground stations or information networks.
5. Develop and implement an operational system for timely distribution of high-resolution
geospatial products displaying fire location and intensity, with the ability to image through
smoke and cloud cover.
6. Provide affordable and rapid access to all high-resolution data streams (30m and higher) for
burned area assessment and rehabilitation applications.
7. Institute comprehensive global coverage of wildland fires to assess the scale of biomass burning.
8. Develop sensors to monitor smoke over broad geographic areas to help determine the impacts
on lower atmospheric chemistry in term of potential global climate change, human health, and
human safety.
9. Ensure the continuity of the current civilian satellite systems to maintain their spectral, temporal,
and spatial characteristics for local and global coverage of wildland fires.
10. Examine opportunities to develop and release declassified information products derived from
classified intelligence and military satellite data to support wildland fire management
requirements.
11. Develop an international agreement to improve access to timely and affordable data for the fire
management community. CEOS should facilitate this agreement in cooperation with other
international organizations.

The fire team also recommends the development of regional wildland fire remote
sensing expertise to provide leadership and direction in the use of remote sensing and
geospatial technologies for international wildland fire management.

I. BACKGROUND Natural boreal and temperate forest, brush, and grassland ecosystems evolved and adapted with
wildland fire as an agent of ecological change. Human development has altered many natural
landscapes and placed people in direct contact with wildland fire. Wildland fires cause loss of human
life and personal property, economic upsets, and disturbances in regional and global atmospheric
composition and chemistry, and climate. Wildland fire managers wish to respond appropriately to
wildland fires to best protect and preserve the resources at risk within the constraints of local policy
objectives.

Wildland fires are caused by human activities or by natural phenomena such as lightning or
volcanoes. Wildland fires caused by humans can be characterized as either intentional or accidental.
Some intentional wildland fires are the result of arson -- those that are set to create havoc and
cause damage. Most intentional wildland fires, however, are related to forest or shrub removal to
transform land for silvicultural or agricultural purposes. These wildland fires are not viewed simply as
a technical problem but also as a complex socioeconomic issue.

The term fire in this document refers to any wildland fire in the natural environment, including
farmland fires. Wildland fire is any nonstructural fire, other than prescribed fire, that occurs in the
wildland (and encompasses previous terms such as "prescribed natural fire" and "wildfire").

Information requirements
Managing wildland fire effectively depends on information (that can vary according to the user of
the information) the characteristics of the geographic region, and the current and evolving phase of
the wildland fire. Suppression planning and prioritization of areas for surveillance requires
assessment of the wildland fire potential (risk and hazard mapping) in the fire-prone areas. During
the crisis phase, it is necessary to know the exact position of the wildland fire (detection), how it is
developing and spreading (behavior), how it has progressed over time (monitoring), and how it is
likely to develop into the future (behavior prediction). After suppression it may be necessary to
examine the type and extent of damage and to plan for recovery actions (assessment, mapping, and
rehabilitation).

Understanding Wildland Fire and its behavior
In simplified models, the behavior of wildland fire depends on three elements: fuel, weather, and
topography. Each element has several characteristic parameters, which create a complex set of
different combinations for wildland fire behavior.

The fuel may be characterized by the following parameters: biomass condition (living or dead);
biomass quantity; moisture content; and vertical and horizontal structure (continuity). To burn, the
fuel needs favorable atmospheric conditions, which can be described in terms of weather. The
weather's impact on wildland fire behavior can be characterized by the following parameters: wind
velocity, wind direction, relative humidity, precipitation, and temperature. A fire's propagation also
depends on topographic factors such as aspect (steepness, orientation and position) of the terrain;
elevation; and general shape of the terrain (for example, ridge, canyon, flat terrain).

Ancillary Data Requirements
During wildland fire management and suppression, other types of information are crucial, such as
information on human settlements (sometimes referred to as the wildland-urban interface) in the
wildland fire area, location of water sources for wildland fire suppression, and road networks for
access to the area. This essential information is needed for all phases of managing wildland fire.
Examples of frequently used sources of information are Orthophotographic imagery and
topographic maps. Fire information, combined with three-dimensional views (composed of high-
resolution imagery draped over digital elevation surface models) would also be very useful.

II. SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS, DESCRIPTIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS In the following section, wildland fire management is divided into three different phases:
preparedness, detection and response, and post-fire assessment. The information requirements are
typically different in each phase. The most significant differences relate to the temporal and spatial
resolution and accuracy of the required information.

Preparedness
The most important task during the preparedness phase of wildland fire management is to assess the
values at risk. Conducting risk assessment studies to identify areas with the greatest potential for
protecting human lives, property, and natural resources can help authorities impose greater
surveillance and/or restrictions on fire use in these areas. Risk assessment considers variables such as
land use and land cover, wildland fire history, demography, infrastructure, and urban interface.

Remote sensing is used to derive vegetation stress variables, which are subsequently related to
wildland fire occurrence. The most frequently used data source for this information is
NOAA/AVHRR data. Alternative data sources are MODIS,
ATSR-2; the VEGETATION onboard
SPOT 4, as well as the GLI (Global Imager), which will be launched on-board ADEOS-II.
Measurement of vegetation stress is one of the most frequent uses of remote sensing in wildland fire
management. Fire authorities of the United States, Spain and Southern France use these data
systematically during the fire season to determine fire danger ratings. Indices are frequently based on
the estimation of live and dead vegetation moisture content, derived from meteorological variables,
some of which can be obtained from meteorological satellite data.

Requirement 1. Fuels mapping
Users: land managers; fire prevention personnel; emergency preparedness managers.
Information needed: fuels, climatological data; terrain; vegetation type and moisture level (live
and dead); historic fire regime; digital elevation models (DEMs). Fuels mapping is really a modeling
exercise using the inputs listed above. One process to map fuels looks at departures of current
vegetation / forest types from potential vegetation types. Additional information is needed for
determining structural risk associated with biomass, fuel composition and fuel moisture status. This
requires high-spatial resolution data (or imagery) to provide estimations of vegetation structure and
biomass.
Earth Observation (EO) data sources available: MODIS, NOAA/AVHRR; LANDSAT; SPOT;
Ikonos; ADEOS-II/GLI; ATSR. The data source used should be dependent on the study area size.
Improvements needed: 1) calibrated 5-30m multi-spectral (including SWIR at 1.6um for water
content estimation and NIR at 0.9um) imagery on a 16-day or better cycle; 2) development of
capability for mapping sub-canopy structure and biomass quantification. High-resolution
interferometric radar and lidar techniques would provide reliable estimations from space.

Requirement 2. Identification of wildland fire risk areas - Fire Danger Assessment
Users: land managers and forest management personnel; international organizations; concerned
Ministries and Departments of Interior and Agriculture; insurance companies; emergency
management personnel.
Information needed: Human settlement location and lines of communication; fuels information;
ecological unit boundaries; vegetation stress; meteorological data.
EO data sources available: LANDSAT; SPOT; Ikonos; ATSR; MODIS; AVHRR; ADEOS-II.
Improvements needed: 1) DEMs available globally at 1m vertical and 5m horizontal accuracy; 2)
calibrated 5-30m multi-spectral IR imagery on a 16 day cycle; 3) continuation of

250m to 1k
resolution daily AVHRR and MODIS-like products for greenness mapping and drought prediction; 4)
development of capability for mapping sub-canopy structure and biomass quantification; and 5)
continuous lighting detection in temperate and boreal forest regions; 6) meteorological data,
including temperature, wind direction and velocity, humidity, and precipitation available once a day
to cover the vegetated areas of the globe.

Recommendations
Information on wildland fire high-risk areas is pivotal to planning for preparedness and wildland fire
prevention. There are tools for mapping the risk areas, based on land cover maps, statistical
wildland fire information and daily weather conditions. Information on the actual combustible
matter, especially on a global scale, is not available. Currently, the estimation of fuel moisture is
based on the information from local ground weather stations. Under-canopy observations,
integrated with ground measurements, will be required.

Recommendation 1. Improve satellite technologies and methods to generate accurate,
updateable, global wildland fire fuel maps. Provide high-resolution
data sets to validate existing methods and test models in tropical,
boreal, and temperate forestry environments.

Recommendation 2. Develop data for meso-scale weather models to facilitate daily and
1 to 2 day prediction of dead and live fuel moisture to augment or
replace requirements for ground weather stations. Provide data for
decision support models on prescribed fire smoke management and
air quality assessment.

Wildland fire detection and response
Some satellite borne sensors can detect wildland fires in the visible, thermal, and mid-infrared
bands. Active wildland fires can be detected by either sensing their thermal or mid-infrared signature
during the day or night, or by detecting the light emitted from the wildland fires at night. The sensors
must also have frequent over flights with data available in near real time.

The spectral, spatial, and temporal resolutions of current satellite platforms do not adequately meet
the need for real-time detection of wildland fires. However, detection of large wildland fires in
remote areas, such as Alaska and the tropical forest belts, has been successful using Earth
observation.

Existing satellite sensors with wildland fire detection capabilities are not used to their fullest technical
extent. All of the sensors currently used were not designed with wildfire detection as an objective.
They are instruments with alternative missions that have been creatively used to detect wildfires
(with varying degrees of success). They include NOAA-GOES, NOAA-AVHRR, MODIS, and
DMSP-OLS. MODIS is the only instrument that has as one of its mission objectives, the detection of
wildfires with a working prototype of a global fire detection system.
We believe that technology for
generating and distributing daily wildland fire products on regional to global scales from these
systems is feasible. This would provide an extremely valuable service for both wildland fire
management and prevention. There are also multi-instrument integration algorithms that are
currently being developed that would lead to a value added solution, increasing the value of any
one system.

It is important to increase the temperature detection range (up to about 700K) of existing sensors on
future satellites of these series (for the bands in the range of 3 to 4um). This would eliminate existing
difficulties in discriminating seasons, fires from sun glint, and exposed/bare soils (in some cases). It
would also help to prevent the present saturation problems, which occur at lower levels of emitted
radiation, improve the ability of measuring temperatures of burning biomass, and reduce, at a
minimum, the occurrence of false alerts (5% maximum desirable). Also desirable would be an
11um channel for detection of lower temperature fires.

Furthermore, in the case of the NOAA-series, it is imperative that the 3.7um channel continues to be
active in the mid-afternoon overpass, and not replaced by other channels (as changed in recent
years).

Also, regarding the NOAA series, a mid afternoon overpass that does not change by 30-40 minutes
from year to year is also suggested, in order to produce more homogeneous data bases (+-20 min
or better, with respect to nominal overpass time is desirable).

The future satellites of the NOAA series should be equipped with the necessary attitude control and
measurement system, in order to provide to the ground processing system accurate attitude data to
allow earth-location accuracy of 1 pixel.

Requirement 3. Rapid Detection
Users: wildland fire community; civil protection services; forestry departments; concerned Ministries
and Departments of Interior and Agriculture.
Information needed: location within 1km; measurements of energy release (intensity); detection
size of 0.25 acres (0.1 ha). Merge capability with additional data such as meteorology, topography,
and fuel maps. In areas where rapid initial attack is anticipated, reports must be received within 5
minutes, with a subsequent confirmation within 5 minutes.
EO data sources available: MODIS, NOAA/AVHRR; DMSP/OLS; GOES; Meteosat GMS (all
solely for approximate location and do not meet requirements for minimum fire size, detection time).
Improvement needed: better resolution and accuracy; less than 5 percent false alarms; shorter
revisit time (< 30 minutes); measure energy release rate (kilowatts/meter with 500kw resolution);
quick access to data, geolocation accuracy of the imagery to less than 1 pixel.

Requirement 4. Local wildland fire monitoring and mapping
Users: Wildland fire community; forestry departments; emergency management organizations.
Information needed: Active fire perimeters located on large scale topographic maps (1:24,000
scale or better) or high resolution ortho-imagery (ground sample distance of 1m) with areas of
intense fire, and indicated direction of movement clearly referenced in relation to ground
infrastructure and man made and natural fire breaks; integration of ongoing wildland fire
information to supplement fire behavior models in near real time; delivery of map and image
products at least once daily in time for incident management planning sessions (generally 6am) to
assist wildland fire fighters with individual fire strategies. Fire maps are also used to support mop-up
operations following fire containment.
EO data sources available: none at this time
Improvements needed: ability to provide information needed above for baseline requirements.
Optimal requirements would provide 30-minute updates for reports on fire line movement and
intensity for strategic planning. Ability to image fire location and intensity through smoke and cloud
cover is required.

Requirement 5. Global monitoring of wildland fires
Two purposes of monitoring:
for tactical purposes ("to fight the fire")
for strategic global change monitoring
Users: Relief Agencies; Global Changes Research (UNEP, IPCC, IGBP, US-GCRP, NASA, NOAA,
EPA, USGS) NGOs; News media; Aviation community; Ministries and Departments of Interior and
Agriculture.
Information needed: location; size; transportation networks; population location and census;
amount of smoke; amount of aerosols; type of vegetation.
EO data sources available: MODIS, NOAA/AVHRR; DMSP/OLS; GOES; Meteosat; GMS;
SPOT-Vegetation; and IRS-WiFS.
Improvements needed: more comprehensive coverage over boreal and tropical forests; better
resolution and accuracy (250 meters); quick access to data.

Recommendations
The end users have very strict requirements for the rapid detection of wildland fires. Public reports,
watchtower and patrol flight reports currently achieve the average detection time of 15-30 minutes
(maximum). A space-borne system should exceed this baseline performance, in order to improve
existing systems, but may provide a meaningful and complementary confirming value if they do not.
No current satellite system has such a capability. This demanding requirement calls for further
consideration to design a constellation of satellites for this purpose.

Recommendation 3. In geographic areas requiring rapid response, develop an
operational satellite wildland fire detection and monitoring system
with an ultimate detection time of 5 minutes, repeat time of 15
minutes, spatial resolution of 250 meters, a maximum 5 percent
false alarm rate, with real time data transmission to local ground
stations or an information distribution system.

Local fire mapping for strategic support and suppression response is the highest priority data product
required, as it is needed to save human lives and natural and manmade resources. Currently, there
are no satellite Earth observation systems commercially available to support local wildland fire
monitoring and mapping. For global monitoring of wildland fires, where the detection time is not so
crucial, the main requirement is to have good access to the data flow from several information
sources. Geostationary and polar-orbiting weather satellites are currently used successfully for
mapping and monitoring of wildland fire on a large scale. There is no operational system able to use
existing satellites to provide timely, global information.

Recommendation 4. Develop and implement an operational system for the timely
distribution of high-resolution geospatial products displaying fire
location and intensity, with the ability to image through smoke and
cloud cover.

Post-fire assessment
The most important post-crisis activity in wildland fire management is the assessment of the burned
area and protection of watersheds and critical resources. Although remote sensing has already
proven its usefulness in this activity, very few authorities use space-borne data operationally for
assessment of wildland fire damage. With space-borne remote sensing, the wildland fire damage or
the extent of burned area is determined by the single-date or multi-temporal analysis of the images.

On national and international scales, NOAA/AVHRR data have been most commonly used for
burned area mapping. MODIS data, which has a similar swath width to AVHRR with sixteen (16)
times the resolution and superior geolocation accuracy, is quickly assuming this role.
The
VEGETATION instrument onboard SPOT4 is a new alternative source of data. Also, recent work
has demonstrated that calibrated 1.6 micron data, such as that currently available from ATSR-2,
may lead to improved fire scar mapping from low-resolution sensors. Access to the AVHRR 1.6
micron data channel would improve current fire scar mapping capabilities further. Other data types
of similar spatial and spectral resolution are not widely used because of the difficulty in data
acquisition and/or the lack of adequate data. At regional scales within national boundaries, high-
resolution data from LANDSAT Thematic Mapper and SPOT/HRVIR are used to determine the extent
of wildland fire damage. Space-borne radar data (mainly from ERS/SAR) has been used
experimentally, but is not in operational use, probably because of the intrinsic complexity in
computer processing of SAR images and unacceptable spatial resolution. Other suitable optical
sensors (IRS-1C) and microwave sensors (JERS, RADARSAT) have not been frequently used.

The new medium spatial resolution data from the Indian and Russian remote sensing satellites in
conjunction with the high spectral resolution (and also medium spatial resolution) of MODIS (EOS),
MERIS (ENVISAT) and GLI (ADEOS-II) may provide very useful imagery for cartography of burned
areas on regional to international scales. Some promising experimental projects have been
conducted in order to derive the level of damage and the degree to which vegetation has been
burned, from high-resolution optical imagery, such as LANDSAT TM, RESURS MSU-E, and IRS-1C
LISS-3. The forthcoming high-spectral and spatial optical imagery may provide a unique data
source for these types of analyses.

Requirement 6. Local burned area assessment
Users: land managers; emergency management specialists; public works; scientists; aid
organizations; environmental agencies; NGOs; insurance companies; Ministries, Departments of
Forestry.
Information Needed: area, location, and intensity of burn; damage to natural resources; damage
to manmade resources; amount of smoke; amount of aerosols and particulate matter; type of flora
and fauna; type of salvage that can be done.
EO data sources available: high resolution ­ LANDSAT; Ikonos; SPOT; IRS; ERS; JERS-1,
ALOS (planned) for area, location and type of damage; moderate resolution ­ MODIS (Terra and
Aqua), IRS-P4; low resolution -- NOAA/AVHRR; SPOT Vegetation; ATSR; ADEOS-II/GLI; IRS-
WiFS.
Improvements needed: inexpensive high-resolution 5m multi-spectral imagery on a daily cycle;
comprehensive coverage; co-scheduling existing satellites to ensure affordable rapid access. For
Burned Area Emergency Rehabilitation (BAER), rapid response would require NIR and SWIR data
for post-fire intensity mapping and high-resolution SAR data for cloud penetration. The SWIR
provides good discrimination inside burned areas with the added advantage of being able to see
through some light smoke and haze.

Requirement 7. Global burned area assessment
Users: UNEP; IPCC; IGBP; Global Change Research; NGOs; FAO; transportation planners; public
health officials; tourists; and concerned Ministries and Departments of Tourism.
Information needed: vegetation type; distribution pattern; total area, and intensity of burn.
EO data sources available: high resolution -- LANDSAT; SPOT; IRS; ERS; JERS-1; ALOS
(planned); GOES; moderate resolution ­ MODIS; low resolution -- NOAA/AVHRR; SPOT
Vegetation; ATSR.
Improvements needed: comprehensive global coverage; more affordable access; greenhouse gas
emission measurement capability.

Recommendations
Burned area assessment frequently requires acquisition of data from several different sources.
Smoke and clouds often obscure the ground for extended periods following large wildland fires.
Impediments to supporting the user with this information may be the high cost or slow access to the
data streams. When developing new applications, these difficulties present a major hindrance.

Recommendation 5. Provide affordable and rapid access to all high-resolution data
streams (30m and higher) for burned area assessment and
rehabilitation applications.

Wildland fire scars and burning of biomass are often studied locally. In some regions, the existing
satellites cannot provide useful timely coverage. For a global understanding of the scale and impact
of biomass burning, there must be an operational worldwide system to determine the area burned
and the fuel type for assessing the amount of carbon released.

Recommendation 6. Institute comprehensive global coverage of wildland fires to assess
the scale of biomass burning.

In addition to the requirement for prescribed fire decision support on smoke management and air
quality monitoring identified in recommendation 2, there is need for broad area monitoring of
transboundary smoke movement to help determine its impact on human health and safety. Smoke
causes reduced visibility, closing of airports and hazards to air, ground, and sea transportation.
Better information on the impact of smoke on lower atmospheric chemistry and potential changes in
global climate is also required.

Recommendation 7. Develop sensors to monitor smoke over broad geographic areas to
help determine the impacts on lower atmospheric chemistry in
terms of potential global climate change, human health, and human
safety.

General Recommendations
Currently, wildland fire management requires the use of data from satellites, which were not
designed for wildland fire monitoring. The investment in the currently developed applications will be
at risk if the currently used data sources are discontinued.

Recommendation 8. Ensure the continuity of the current civilian satellite systems to
maintain their spectral, temporal, and spatial characteristics for
local and global coverage of wildland fires.

Due to the lack of dedicated systems for wildland fire detection and monitoring, intelligence and
military satellite systems are the only sources of timely information. While we acknowledge the
difficulty and sensitivity of access to military data, there are opportunities for collaboration with the
military to provide information on acute wildland fire situations. Such access would imply the release
of declassified information products derived from classified satellite data.

Recommendation 9. Examine opportunities to cooperate with the intelligence and
military communities to develop and release declassified
information products derived from classified satellite data to
support wildland fire management requirements.

Recognizing that there is not currently a satellite system dedicated to wildland fire management, the
requirements are dependent on the data from several satellite data sources. When commercial data
is used, the cumulative price and access to data becomes a major hurdle in developing the most
useful applications. In the event of a crisis situation, several satellites might have to be co-scheduled
(tasked) in order to receive proper satellite coverage for the area of interest.

Recommendation 10. Develop an international agreement to improve access to timely
and affordable data for the fire management community. CEOS
should facilitate this agreement in cooperation with other
international organizations.

III.
DEVELOPMENT OF
REGIONAL
EXPERTISE IN
REMOTE
SENSING FOR
WILDLAND
FIRE
MANAGEMENT.

In addition to the above listed recommendations, there is a need for regional expertise in remote
sensing to provide an overall organizational framework of leadership and direction in coordinating
international fire prevention and for training, monitoring, suppression, and assessment efforts. CEOS
could be instrumental in improving remote sensing expertise in wildland fire management and
should initiate discussion with international organizations to address the following activities:
1) Coordinate efforts to monitor fire risks:
· Monitor and predict drought conditions, which lead to abnormal fire danger.
· Map risk according to vegetation and fuel types.
· Report fire risk danger to local fire management and forestry offices responsible for
activating land use and fire restrictions based on fire danger rating.
2) Coordinate development of satellite fire detection and reporting systems:
· Use the combination of MODIS, AVHRR, GOES, DMSP, and future satellite systems to
identify fire starts early.
· Identify communication protocols and requirements to convey fire start information to
local fire management offices responsible for fire suppression response.
3) Coordinate development of fire monitoring systems:
· Develop dedicated space-based fire monitoring system(s) to provide information on fires
to the impacted country in near real time. The system would use satellite systems and
ancillary data (existing GIS data and available airborne imagery) to prepare daily fire
perimeter maps. Local fire management offices would use fire maps to coordinate fire
suppression efforts.
· Use remotely sensed imagery to map fire extent, smoke plumes, and fire intensity to
assess environmental impacts.
4) Support fire suppression coordination efforts:
· Serve as a clearinghouse to distribute information, geospatial data, and international
contacts to determine available fire suppression resources.
· Provide training in fire suppression techniques.
5) Fire prevention:
· Assist in developing guidelines for regulation of agriculture burning, logging, land
clearing, and other land uses that create uncontrolled fires.
· Establish guidelines for management of combustible fuels.
· Coordinate development of technology transfer and training methods to raise public
awareness of fire danger risks and the benefits of preventing uncontrolled burning.

Team Accomplishments
· The Fire Team has worked with the Global Observation of Forest Cover (GOFC) project, an
activity under the International Global Observation Strategy (IGOS) Carbon theme, to
coordinate the DMSG Fire working group activity with the GOFC fire component.
· Charles Dull presented a paper on the DMSG Fire Team recommendations and published it in
the proceedings of the GOFC-Fire workshop held at the European Commission (EC), Ispra,
Italy.
· The Fire Team conducted a Wildland Fire Activity and Information Requirements Review,
hosted by the Remote Sensing Applications Group of the Subcommittee on Natural Disaster
Reduction (SNDR). Charles Dull of the USDA Forest Service organized the meeting held at
NOAA in Silver Springs, MD.
· The Fire Team plans to continue to work on coordination with GOFC, and other disaster-related
activities such as the Global Disaster Information Network (GDIN) and the SNDR.
Proposed Wildland Fire Hazard Emergency Scenario

Wildland Fire Rapid Detection and Response
Obtain current and future status
Check if
Considered
1.
Active fire perimeter and location of intense burn at 5m resolution

2.
Detection size of 0.1 ha; location within 1km; measurement of energy
release

3.
Model predicted fire direction of spread and intensity

4.
Remedial measures taken by local authorities; man made and natural fire
breaks

5.
Forecast of wind, meteorological conditions, significant weather fronts and
predicted movements in proximity to ongoing wildland fires

Obtain background information
1.
Fuels; vegetation type; live and dead fuel moisture; vegetation stress

2.
Land use; land cover

3.
Location and proximity of inhabited areas and industrial centers; values at
risk

4.
Date of fire start; daily progress and spread

5.
All geospatial products integrated with 1m orthophotos or 1:25,000 scale or
larger topo maps

Select the imaging payload
1. MODIS

2.
SPOT ­ MIR channel night acquisitions if SPOT4

3.
NOAA-GEOS; NOAA-AVHRR; DMSP-OLS;

4.
Landsat 7; Ikonos; QuickBird

5.
IR with smoke penetration capability (airborne)

6.
RADARSAT ­ choice of beam combined with archive acquisitions. High
resolution and high incidence are preferable (F4, F5)

7.
ERS (possibly with interferometric and recent archive data)

Data
1.
Value added information ­ GIS coverages including: terrain (DEM),
infrastructure, lines of communication, cartographic projections,
demography, urban interface, ecological unit boundaries, historic fire
regime, water sources

2.
Data delivery mechanism via Internet or FTP (electronic) at least once daily
(by 6:00 am locally) ­ 30 minute updates optimal

FIRE
HAZARD
TEAM
PARTICIPANTS

1.
Charles Dull, Co-Chair,
US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service (USA)
2.
Ashbindu Singh, Co-Chair,
United Nations Environmental Programme, Environmental
Information
and
Assessment
Program
­
North
America
3.
Tim Lynham, Co-Chair
Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service
(Canada)
4. Pekka
Jarvilehto European Commission, Directorate General XII (Europe)
5.
Mike Crane

US Geological Survey, EROS Data Center (USA)
6.
Chris Mutlow

Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (UK)
7.
Susan Conrad

USDA, Forest Service (USA)
8.
Leona Dittus

USDA, Farm Service Agency (USA)
9.
Jeff
Eidenshink
US
Geological Survey, EROS Data Center (USA)
10.
Johann G. Goldammer
Global Fire Monitoring Center (Germany)
11.
Herve Jeanjean

Centre National Etudes Spatiales/Scot Conseil (France)
12.
Wally Josephson

US Department of Interior, Office of Managing Risk & Public

Safety (USA)
13.
Jackie Klaver

US Geological Survey, EROS Data Center (USA)
14.
Joel S. Levine

NASA, Langley Research Center (USA)

15. Mikiyasu
Nakayama

Utsunomiya
University, Faculty of Agriculture (Japan)
16.
Sergio
Pereira
Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (Brazil)
17.
Al Peterlin

USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board (USA)
18.
Elaine
Prins
NOAA/NESDIS
Office
of Research and Applications (USA)
19.
Genya Saito

National Institute of Agro-Environmental Sciences (Japan)
20.
Jesus San Miguel

Joint Research Centre, Space Applications Institute (Europe)
21.
Jim Saveland

USDA, Forest Service (USA)
22.
Haruo Sawada

Forest Agency, Forestry & Forest Products Research Institute

(Japan)
23.
George Stephens

NOAA/NESDIS, Office of Satellite Data Processing &

Distribution (USA)
24.
Ian Thomas

Earth Observation Consultants International Ltd. (UK)
25. Christopher
Elvidge
NOAA/NESDIS
National Geophysical Data Center (USA)
26.
Tom Bobbe

USDA, Forest Service (USA)
27. Paul
Greenfield

USDA, Forest Service (USA)
28.
Bill Belton

USDA, Forest Service (USA)
29.
Mark Finco

USDA Forest Service (USA)
30.
Kevin Hope

US Geological Survey (USA)
31.
Surat Lertium

Asian Institute of Technology (Thailand)
32. Sabina
Carnemolla
Telespazio, EC Euforeo Thematic Network Project (Italy)
33.
Emilio Chuvieco

University of Alcala (Spain)
34.
Jesus Gonzalo de Grado
INSA, Ingemeria y Servicios Aerospaciales (Spain)

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T E A M R E P O R T
Flood

FLOOD HAZARDS
CEOS DISASTER
MANAGEMENT
SUPPORT
GROUP ______________________________________________________________________________

SUMMARY

This report addresses the use of Earth Observation satellites for flood managers, flash flood analysis
and prediction, and the user community. A remote sensing management cycle is presented that
involves: (1) prevention where history, corporate memory and climatology are important (2)
mitigation that insulates people or infrastructure from hazards (3) pre-flood, which is the preparation
and forecast stage where remote sensing is essential (4) response (during the flood) where actions to
be taken is of key importance and weather NOWCASTS (0 - 3 hour prediction of precipitation)
using remote sensing is extremely useful, and (5) recovery, (post flood) which is the postmortem
stage where damage assessment, procedures, and numerical weather prediction and hydrological
models are validated. The potential of high and low resolution polar orbital Earth Resource Satellites
have been shown to be an excellent tool for providing hydrological information including the
quantification of catchment physical characteristics, such as topography and land use, and
catchment variables such as soil moisture and snow cover. There have been many demonstrations
of the operational use of these satellites for detailed monitoring and mapping of floods and post-
flood damage assessment. A family of satellite-derived products from the operational meteorological
satellites (geostationary and polar) for application to general flood and flash flood analysis and
prediction is also presented. These products include precipitation estimates and soil wetness indices,
both of which can be derived globally. Gaps in remote sensing capabilities are discussed and future
improvements and requirements are presented. The ultimate objective is to integrate geostationary
data with polar orbital data and to have microwave onboard geostationary satellites early in the next
millennium.

Flood Team Recommendations

· Develop methods for the integration of satellite, in-situ and GIS data for input to hydrological
models
· Develop multi-sensor/satellite integration methods
· Addition of microwave sensor on GOES
· Estimate soil moisture and snowpack characteristics from high resolution microwave data
· Improve satellite rainfall estimation techniques
· Increase temporal frequency of polar orbiting satellite data acquisitions.
· Decrease time required to acquire and deliver remotely sensed data
· Lower the cost of remotely sensed data
· Develop techniques to generate high resolution DEM
· Education/Training to build local capability
· International coordination of data acquisitions

I.
INTRODUCTION

A hazard is defined as a phenomenon that may cause disruption to humans or their infrastructure. A
disaster is an event that causes such disruption (one that occurs in the past, present, or future).
Disaster management is a set of actions and processes designed to lessen disastrous effects, either
before, during, or after a disaster. This report will focus on the use of satellite data for flood
management and will include both polar orbital Earth Resource Satellites and operational
meteorological satellites. The polar orbital Earth Resource Satellites are of two types: (1) optical
sensors that cannot see through clouds, operating at low (AVHRR), medium (LANDSAT, SPOT,
IRS) and high resolutions (IKONOS) and (2) microwave sensors that can see through clouds, which
include high resolution active sensors such as Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) (RADARSAT, ERS,
JERS) and low resolution passive sensors (SSMI). These satellites have been used to quantify
catchment physical characteristics, such as watershed boundaries, elevation and slope, land cover,
as well as catchment variables such as soil moisture, snow pack, temperature, vegetation indices,
and evapotranspiration. They have also been used operationally for flood monitoring, mapping and
damage assessment (Pultz, et. al., 1991, 1996; and Saper, et. al., 1996). There has been
considerable work devoted to developing the approach needed to integrate these remotely sensed
estimates and in situ data into hydrological models for flood forecasting.

Meteorological satellites are composed of two types: geostationary and polar orbital. The
geostationary satellite (GOES) is a powerful tool to observe the weather on a continuous basis. The
orbit is at an altitude of 22,000 miles and picture frequency is normally on a half-hourly basis
(currently United States of America GOES 8 and 10 are producing images every 15 minutes).
Additional GOES satellites include METEOSAT from the European Space Agency, Japan's
Geostationary Meteorological Satellite called GMS, the Indian National Satellite (INSAT) system and
the Russian satellite GOMS. These satellites provide images in the visible (VIS) and infrared (IR)
wavelengths. Polar orbital satellites (POES) circle the earth twice a day at an altitude of
approximately 850km. Two types of polar orbitals are in operation: NOAA (NOAA 15 was
successfully launched in May 1998) and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) onboard the
DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program) satellite; NOAA 15's microwave instrument is
called the Advanced Microwave Sensing Unit (AMSU). Both of these satellites provide VIS and IR
imagery and microwave data. With respect to precipitation estimates and moisture analysis, GOES
offers higher resolution time and space scales, while POES microwave data are more physically
related to precipitation and moisture processes. Ideas and concepts for this report were generated
from several CEOS (Committee on Earth Observation Satellites) meetings and individual
communication that included a comprehensive discussion on Flood Hazard and Remote Sensing
(Scofield and Margottini, 1999).

II.
GENERAL APPLICATION DESCRIPTION

Floods are among the most devastating natural hazards in the world, claiming more lives and
causing more property damage than any other natural phenomena. Within the USA, an average of
more than 225 people are killed and more than US$3.5 billion in property is damaged by heavy
rain and flooding each year (1993, 1999). As a result, floods are one the greatest challenges to
weather prediction. A flood can be defined as: any relatively high water flow that overtops the
natural or artificial banks in any portion of a river or stream --- when a bank is overtopped, the
water spreads over the flood plain and generally becomes a hazard to society. When extreme
meteorological events occur in areas characterized by a high degree of urbanization, the flooding
can be extensive, resulting in a great amount of damage and loss of life. However, not all hydro-
geological events that cause destruction can be classified as floods: in mountainous regions
landslides, hyper-concentrated flows, debris flows, etc cause the most damage. Heavy rain,
snowmelt, or dam failures cause these hydro geological events.

In the frame of a general analysis, both flood and slope stability phenomena must be considered as
different aspects of the same dynamic system, called the drainage basin. The events deriving from
slope dynamics (gravitational phenomena) and fluvial dynamics (floods) are commonly triggered by
the same factor: heavy rainfall. Especially in mountainous areas, analyzing flood risk is often
impossible without considering all of the other phenomena associated with slope dynamics (erosion,
slides, sediment transport, etc.). In scientific literature many conceptual models exist where an
integrated view between slope instability phenomena and flood events has been provided (Casale
and Margottini, 1994). The hydrological cycle influences the evolution of the drainage basin system.
Meteorological satellites (both GOES and POES) detect various aspects of the hydrological cycle --
precipitation (rate and accumulations), moisture transport, and surface/ soil wetness (Scofield and
Achutuni, 1996). The effects of this geomorphologic evolution induce variations of the stream
network, which in turn influence the land modeling. This continuous evolution is a long process, but
is characterized by accelerated phenomena that develop in the medium or even short time frame
(hours to a day). The very short time processes are triggered by extreme meteorological events. The
type and magnitude of the ensuing phenomena (floods, landslides, etc) show a great variability, as a
function of the considered area and the specific characteristics of the region (climate, land use,
geology, slope, etc.).

As a result, different morphological zones need to be identified, in which distinct types of events
induce specific kinds of dangers and disasters. These different types of phenomena are a
consequence of different interrelations among the hydrologic, hydraulic and geological processes.
Two morphological zones are identified:
Plain Areas, where damages are caused by flood phenomena mainly controlled by water flow;
floods are caused by heavy precipitation in upstream areas and snowmelt. The duration of effective
rainfall necessary to produce floods in rivers (located in the Plain Area) is usually from hours to days.
Flash floods can also occur and have a time period of six hours or less (after the rainfall event) and
cover areas generally less than ½ x ½ degree. The hazard prediction in these circumstances
normally uses hydraulic methods based on Newtonian fluid dynamics.
Mountainous Areas: where landslides cause damages, debris flows and floods that take place almost
at the same time as the critical meteorological events. Floods, especially of this variety, are usually
classified as flash floods, since the lag time is extremely rapid. In addition, the floods are a result of
an over-aggravation phenomenon. Intense erosion often develops on the slopes and along the
stream banks increasing the sediment load in the water flow. The abundant water discharge and the
frequent slope variation along the streambed causes sediment transport and deposition processes
with a consequent over-aggravation phenomenon, especially on the alluvial fans. Landslides
triggered by rainfall and by undercutting, can induce direct damage and aggravate the stream
danger. Locally, the regular water flow can be obstructed by detritus accumulation that induces
destructive peak discharges characteristic of extremely high sediment load. In these cases, hazard
prediction must consider the strong interrelation among hydraulic and geological features.
Mountainous basins can be subdivided into three main zones: main valley area (small slopes within
the streambed); secondary valleys (high slopes within the streambed); and slope areas outside the
stream network.

There are several forms of flooding: River Floods form from winter and spring rains, coupled with
snow melt, and torrential rains from decaying tropical storms and monsoons; Coastal Floods are
generated by winds from intense off-shore storms and Tsunamis; Urban Floods, as discussed above,
(urbanization increases runoff two to six times what would occur on natural terrain); Ice Jams are
generated by natural or man/animal made obstructions; Flash Floods, as discussed above, can occur
within minutes or hours of excessive rainfall, a dam or levee failure, or a sudden release of water
held by an Ice Jam. Flash floods are the number one weather-related killer in the USA.


III. SPECIFIC APPLICATION DESCRIPTION

Regarding the cycle of disaster management, two main fields of interest can be defined for the use of
remote sensing data in the flood domain: (1) a detailed mapping approach, that is required for the
production of hazard assessment maps and for input to various types of hydrological models. These
mapping approaches are used at the regional and local scales; the user requirements are related to
detailed mapping for updating (and sometimes creating) risk maps. The maps contribute to the
hazard and vulnerability aspects of flooding. The other field of interest is: (2) a larger scale approach
that explores the general flood situation within a river catchment or coastal belt, with the aim of
identifying areas that have greatest risk and need immediate assistance; in this case, remote sensing
may contribute to the initialization of numerical weather prediction models, weather forecasts and to
mapping of inundated areas, mainly at the regional level.

Satellite optical observations of floods have been hampered by the presence of clouds that resulted
in the lack of near real-time data acquisitions. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) can achieve regular
observation of the earth's surface, even in the presence of thick cloud cover. Therefore, applications
such as those in hydrology, which require a regularly acquired image for monitoring purposes, are
able to meet their data requirements. This presents new opportunities for the observation of
hydrological change over time and the quantification, from space, of hydrological variables that are
very difficult to measure on the ground.

SAR data are not restricted to flood mapping but can also be useful to the estimation of a number of
hydrological parameters (Pultz, et. al., 1991, 1996, 1997). In some cases, such as wet snow
mapping, monitoring of wetlands, flood extent delineation and identification of freshwater ice types
the capabilities of SAR have been demonstrated and the operational use of such data is becoming a
reality. In other areas, such as soil moisture and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) estimation, the
potential of SAR data has also been shown to be useful. However, additional work is required to
develop robust quantitative relationships. There is also a need to develop and implement distributed
hydrological models, in order to fully exploit remotely sensed data and forecast and simulate stream
flow (Leconte and Pultz, 1990 and Jobin and Pultz, 1996). NOAA AHVRR allows for a family of
satellites upon which flood monitoring and mapping can almost always be done in near real time.
Currently, multi channel and multi sensor data sources from GOES and POES satellites have been
used for meteorological evaluation, interpretation, validation, and assimilation (into Numerical
Weather Prediction Models) to assess hydrological and hydro geological risks (Barrett, 1996). These
data are used to estimate precipitation intensity, amount, and coverage, measure moisture and
winds, and to determine ground effects such as the surface (soil) wetness (Scofield and Achutuni,
1996, Scofield, 1987, Borneman, 1988, Vicente and Scofield, 1998; and Achutuni and Scofield,
1998).

Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE) and Forecasts (QPF) use satellite data as one source of
information to facilitate flood and flash flood forecasts in order to provide early warnings of flood
hazard to communities. New algorithms are being developed that integrate the less direct but higher
resolution (space and time) GOES precipitation estimates, with the more physically based but lower
resolution (both space and time) POES microwave estimates. An improvement in rainfall spatial
distribution measurements is being achieved by integrating radar, rain gauges and remote sensing
techniques to improve real time flood forecasting (Vicente and Scofield, 1998).

Table 1 shows a simplified state of art for remote sensing application in the flood disaster
management cycle. From this Table, it is possible to notice the strong multi-disciplinary context in
which remote sensing has to be considered. It is important also, to mention the possibility of new
developments for local topography resolution. This Table has been divided into two main
categories:
1) monitored areas in which remote sensing is complementary to direct precipitation and stream
flow measurements, and
(2) those areas that are not instrumentally monitored (or the instruments are not working or are in
error). In this second category, remote sensing provides an essential tool for flood disaster
management. As seen in the Table, each category is further divided into regional and local
approaches, depending on the scale of investigation from the adopted methodology and
resolution.

Table 1

FLOOD DISASTER MANAGEMENT CYCLE

Instrumentally Monitored Areas
Not Instrumentally Monitored Areas

regional scale
local scale

regional scale

local scale

prevention

yes + other data
yes + other data (new ?) yes + other data

mitigation


preparedness/
yes + other data

yes + other data
warning


response

yes + other data
yes + other data

recovery

yes + other data

prevention


The following discusses the above listed disaster management categories in Table 1:

Prevention
The Prevention category involves history, corporate memory and climatology. This is the classical
hazard approach in which the individual input data depend on the scale factor. For regional
methodologies, the essential input data are geomorphology, hydrological analysis, and historical
investigation of past events and climatology. Remote sensing may help in mapping geomorphic
elements and land use, providing meteorological data for hydrological modeling and contributing to
mapping historical events. For example, GOES and POES weather satellites can provide
climatological information on precipitation especially for those areas not instrumentally monitored.
In the prevention area, these historical data sets can give managers a "heads up" on what is
normally expected (for example, precipitation); hydrological models can use this climatological data
to provide decision makers the typical response time for a particular precipitation event. Potential
users are land planners (federal or national), hydro meteorologists (including weather forecasters),
environmental and agricultural authorities.

Investigations on the local scale include topography, hydraulic data, riverbed roughness, sediment
grain size, hydraulic calculations, land cover, and surface roughness. Remote sensing may contribute
to mapping topography (generation of DEMs) and in defining surface roughness and land cover.
Potential users are land planners (local municipality), hydro meteorologists, and those in water
management. Hazard data obtained on the local scale can be combined with vulnerability data on
population, land use, and type of buildings, type of contents, infrastructure and activities to assess
the risk. In this case, remote sensing may contribute to updating cartography for land use.
Cartographic updates are a critical aspect of remote sensing since there are often delays in public
administration for maintaining updated official cartography, as well as illegal construction in some
areas that are not reported on official maps.

Mitigation and Prediction
Hydrologic models play a major role in assessing and forecasting flood risk. Model predictions of
potential flood extent can help emergency managers develop contingency plans well in advance of
an actual event to help facilitate a more efficient and effective response. The hydrologic models
require several types of data as input, such as land use, soil type, soil moisture, stream/river base
flow, rainfall amount/intensity, snow pack characterization, digital elevation model (DEM) data, and
static data (such as drainage basin size). Complex terrain and land use in many areas result in a
requirement for very high spatial resolution data over very large areas, which can only be practically
obtained by remote sensing systems.

Figure 1 shows the requirements for hydrologic models and indicates potential non-weather satellite
platforms that can provide the needed data. Data from satellites such as ERS, RADARSAT and
SPOT can provide DEM data at resolutions of about 3 to 10 meters. Land use information can be
determined through the use of AVHRR, Landsat and SPOT data. The rainfall component can be
determined through the use of existing POES and GOES platforms. Although there are no
operational data sources for estimating soil type, soil moisture, snow water equivalent and
stream/river base flow there has been considerable research on the extraction of these parameters
from existing optical and microwave polar orbiting satellites.

Models can also assist in the mitigation of coastal flooding. Wave run-up simulations can help
planners determine the degree of coastal inundation to be expected under different, user-specified
storm conditions. These types of models require detailed near-shore bathymetry for accurate wave
effect predictions. While airborne sensors provide the best resolution data at present, this data
source can be potentially cost-prohibitive when trying to assess large areas of coastline. In addition
to DEM data, satellite based SAR can also be used to derive near-shore bathymetry for input into
wave run-up models on a more cost-effective basis.
Hydrodynamic modelsSoil typeLand useDEMStatic dataBase flowRainfallSoilmoisturePOESGOESResearchmode. Nooperationalcapability yet?Researchmode. Nooperationalcapability yet?Researchmode. Nooperationalcapability yet?SPOT,Landsat,IKONOSERS,
RadarsatSPOT

Figure 1
Preparedness Warning (immediately before the flood):
The preparedness/warning category (also called pre flood category) refers to actions taken to
insulate people or infrastructure from specific hazard events. In this stage, government agencies,
research institutes and hydro power utilities study the cause of floods, plan for possible scenarios to
minimize the potential impacts, and subsequently establish the necessary infrastructure to either
prevent it or minimize its impacts. In order to establish flood-warning systems, environmental factors
and conditions that lead to flooding are monitored and studied. These factors include meteorology,
ice and snow conditions (coverage and depth), soil moisture, tidal conditions in coastal areas, water
levels and flow, topography, land cover, surface roughness, river bed roughness, soil type, and
permeability. GOES and POES weather satellites provide information on precipitation, moisture,
temperature, winds, and soil (surface) wetness. Satellite-derived parameters are also used in
assimilation techniques to help initialize numerical weather prediction models where outputs are
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF). Hydrologic models are executed to simulate different
situations and policies and systems are implemented to forewarn and evacuate inhabitants living on
flood plains.

Remote sensing provides a useful contribution to all of the above listed input data, with the
exception of riverbed roughness. Except for the meteorological applications of (NOWCASTING
(defined below) and prediction, the benefit from the use of remote sensing techniques may not be
essential in well (instrumentally) monitored areas. In these areas, remote sensing can assist in
providing better spatial estimates of hydrological parameter, when integrated with the in situ
measurement network. As such, more accurate flood predictions are possible and remote sensing is
the only cost effective method to monitor the spatial extent of flooding. Remote sensing is essential
in those areas not instrumentally monitored. Potential users are civil protection (federal and state),
hydro meteorologists, local authorities, water management, and media.

Response (during Flood)
The response category can also be called "relief," and refers to actions taken during and
immediately following a disaster. During floods, timely and detailed situation reports are required by
the authorities to locate and identify the affected areas and to implement corresponding damage
mitigation. It is essential that information be accurate and timely, in order to address emergency
situations (for example, dealing with diversion of flood water, evacuation, rescue, resettlement,
water pollution, health hazards, and handling the interruption of utilities etc.).

For remote sensing, this often takes the form of damage assessment. This is the most delicate
management category since it involves rescue operations and the safety of people and property. The
following lists information used and analyzed in real time: (this includes data from the previous
category: Preparedness) extent mapping and real time monitoring (satellite, airborne, and direct
survey), damage to buildings (remote sensing and direct inspections), damage to infrastructure
(remote sensing and direct inspection), meteorological NOWCASTS (important real-time input from
remote sensing data to show intensity/estimates, movement, and expected duration of rainfall for the
next 0 - 3 hours), and evaluation of secondary disasters , such as waste pollution, to be detected and
assessed during the crisis (remote sensing and others). In this category, communication is important
to identify which satellite will provide the essential contribution. Potential users are the same as in
the preparedness category (civil protection, hydro meteorologists, local authorities, water
management, and media) plus insurance companies.


Recovery (after the Flood)
In this stage, re-building destroyed or damaged facilities and adjustments of the existing
infrastructure will occur. At the same time, insurance companies require up-to-date information to
settle claims. The time factor is not as critical as in the last stage. Nevertheless, both medium and
high-resolution remote sensing images, together with an operational geographic information system,
can help to plan many tasks. The medium resolution data can establish the extent of the flood
damages and can be used to establish new flood boundaries. They can also locate landslides and
pollution due to discharge and sediments. High-resolution data is suitable for pinpointing locations
and the degree of damages. They can also be used as reference maps to rebuild bridges, washed-out
roads, homes and facilities. Finally, these data can be used by agencies to validate and refine their
hydrological models that are being used for flood prediction.

Prevention
This category more or less comes back to the top of the disaster cycle. The information (data) and
experience (intuition) developed during the flood may help in future events. Validation of models
(especially meteorological interpretations) including conceptual and numerical weather prediction
models is essential for future improvements. Prevention also involves updating risk assessment
maps, identifying lessons learned and developing recommendations. The primary method for
enhancing our knowledge of a particular flood event is through flood disaster surveys, where results
are documented in a report (see the Natural Disaster Survey Report on "The Great Flood of 1993,"
Scofield and Achutuni, 1994).

Mitigation
Mitigation measurements are likely to improve after a flood disaster. Refining the Mitigation process
in order to reduce vulnerability to future flood events will hopefully follow.

IV.
PRODUCTS AND
SERVICES

This section is a NESDIS perspective that emphasizes the use of meteorological satellites for flash
floods. Nevertheless, most of the satellite-derived information used for flash flood diagnostics and
prediction is applicable to the other types of flooding mentioned in Section 2.

Heavy precipitation and flash floods are often a multi scale and concatenating event from the global
scale, to the synoptic scale, to the mesoscale and finally to the storm scale. Satellite-derived
algorithms, conceptual models, and interpretation techniques are used to provide information on
these various scales to monitor, assess, and predict heavy precipitation and flash floods. In the
satellite data, global scale connections between the tropics and middle latitudes are observed. These
connections are movements, surges, or plumes of water vapor that are often associated with
unstable air and prepare the environment for heavy precipitation and flash floods.

On the synoptic scale, the 6.7-micron water vapor is especially useful for detecting jet streaks,
vorticity centers and other features that are associated with upward vertical motion and lift the moist,
unstable air resulting in the production of clouds and precipitation. Whether or not heavy
precipitation and flash floods will occur are generally determined on the mesoscale to storm scale.
On the mesoscale, infrared (10.7 micron and 3.9 micron), visible, and water vapor (6.7 micron) are
used to locate boundaries (both frontal and thunderstorm-produced) and short waves that may
initiate, focus, and maintain the heavy precipitation. Terrain features such as orographic uplift have
the same effect of anchoring, intensifying, and prolonging the precipitation.

On the storm scale, the intensity, movement, and propagation of the precipitation system (for
example, thunderstorms) is used to determine how much, when, and where the heavy precipitation
is going to move during the next zero to three hours (called NOWCASTING). High-resolution
infrared (10.7 micron) and visible are the principal data sets used in this diagnosis. The wetness of
the soil due to a heavy rainfall event or snowmelt is extremely useful information for flood (flash
flood) guidance. SSM/I data from the DMSP are the data sets used in this analysis. SAR, SPOT, and
to some extent high resolution NOAA images can be used to determine flood extent and areal
coverage.

Satellite derived winds (Nieman, S.J., et. al., 1997 and Velden, C.S., et. al., 1997) and satellite
soundings of temperatures and moisture (Hayden, C.M., 1988) are currently being used to initialize
some of the numerical weather prediction models. These help to improve QPF, which can then lead
to improved output from hydrological models.

Since flash floods are often a multi-scale and concatenating event, the following is a brief discussion
of products designed for diagnosing these atmospheric interactions.

Global to Synoptic Scale
Various precipitable water (PW) products have been developed and are available operationally for
assessing the state of the atmosphere with respect to the magnitude of the moisture and its transport.
These products include satellite derived PW from GOES (Holt, et. al., 1998) and SSM/I (Ferraro, et.
al., 1996), and a composite that includes a combination of GOES + SSM/I + model data (Scofield,
et. al., 1996, 1995). GOES derived PW are computed over land and water but are limited to cloud
free areas. SSM/I derived PW is limited to ocean areas but can be computed where clouds are not
producing precipitation. In order to take advantage of the strengths and weaknesses of the SSM/I
and GOES derived PW, the above-mentioned composite PW product has been developed. Satellite
derived winds are also used in the determination of the moisture transport. The 6.7micron water
vapor can detect plumes of upper level moisture and lifting mechanisms (as mentioned above).

Mesoscale to Storm scale
Various satellite derived precipitation algorithms are being employed to determine both the intensity
and accumulation of precipitation over short time intervals. The following satellite products have
been deemed useful in heavy precipitation estimation: Interactive Flash Flood Analyzer Techniques
(IFFA) (Scofield, 1987 and Scofield and Oliver, 1977) for convection, winter storm, tropical storm
and lake effect snows: A McIDAS based computer system is used to infer precipitation rates
interactively and manually from the GOES infrared and visible data. A principal premise is that
colder cloud tops (especially convective) produce heavier rain. NOWCASTS of 3-hour precipitation
outlooks are also computed. These outlooks are based on the trends and propagation characteristics
of the precipitation system (Spayd and Scofield, 1984; Shi, Jiang and R.A. Scofield, 1987; and Xie,
Juying and R.A. Scofield, 1989).

Auto - Estimator (Vicente, Scofield and Menzel, 1998): A GOES 8/9 experimental, quasi-automatic
technique based on: (a) 10.7 micron rain rate curve (can be manually adjusted -- especially for
warm top convection), (b) PW and relative humidity (RH), (c) cloud growth, (d) cloud top gradient,
and (e) orography. Trained meteorologists can adjust this algorithm for warm top convection and
large-area, cold top, quasi-stationary storms.

GOES Multi-spectral Rainfall Algorithm (Ba and Gruber, 1998): A GOES 8/9 experimental
algorithm similar to that listed above, except that it uses the 3.9 and 12.0 micron channels, plus
visible, to screen out cirrus and detect precipitation in clouds with warm tops (more stratiform).

SSM/I rainfall algorithms (Ferraro, 1997 and Ferraro, et. al., 1996): This is more physically based,
compared to the above listed GOES algorithms, but much less timely. Scattering-based techniques
are used over land and a combination of scattering and emission-based is used over water.

Soil (Surface) Wetness Index (Achutuni and Scofield, 1998, Achutuni, et. al., 1996, 1997 and
Scofield and Achutuni, 1996, 1994): An experimental product derived from the "85 Ghz - 19 Ghz
"horizontally polarized SSM/I data. This product is used to identify surfaces ranging from dry to
extremely saturated or flooded. The Soil Wetness Index does not have the resolution capabilities of
SAR, SPOT, or LANDSAT but unlike those other sensors, SSM/I is available in real time on a daily
(twice a day) basis.

Precipitation Program of NESDIS' Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB):
NESDIS' SAB "flash flood" operation can serve as a prototype operation for centers around the
world (Borneman, 1988 and Kuligowski, 1997):
· Customers: National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Offices, and National Center for
Environmental Prediction (Hydro meteorological Prediction Center, Tropical Prediction Center,
and Storm Prediction Center).
· Products: Precipitation (available every 15 - 30 minutes) and NOWCASTS (3 hour precipitation
outlooks).
· Primary: GOES 8/9: 10.7, 3.9, 6.7, 12 micron, and VIS; GOES sounding derived parameters;
DMSP/SSM/I; NOAA K/AMSU.
· Ancillary: Numerical Weather Prediction Model derived parameters, radar (WSR-88D), ASOS
(Automatic Surface Observation System) and other surface observations.

Soil (surface) Wetness Index (available once or twice a day):
· Primary: DMSP/SSM/I (especially 89 and 19 GHz)
· Ancillary: ERS (5.3 GHz/ESA), RADARSAT (5.3 GHz/Canadian), JERS - 1
(1.275 GHz/Japan) and ALOS* (1.27 GHz), NOAA high-resolution imagery, rain gauges, soil
wetness measurements, SPOT (France) and LANDSAT.
* PALSAR onboard ALOS is also useful for the observation of soil (surface) wetness.

Composited Precipitable Water (PW) Product (4 times a day):
· GOES derived PW Product available every hour; SSM/I derived PW Product available every 12
hours
· Primary: GOES derived PW, SSM/I derived PW, and Numerical Weather
Prediction Model - derived PW
· Ancillary: Rawinsonde derived PW

Many of the products listed above are available through the NESDIS Flash Flood Home Page:
http://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/ora/ht/ff/

This Home Page includes the global Soil Wetness Index with close-ups of the U.S.A., Canada, South
and East Asia, Africa, Europe, South America, Australia, and Indonesia

The following briefly details the data and product resolution requirements for the operational GOES
and POES meteorological satellites.

Data and Product Resolution Requirements
Threshold refers to the level below which there is no significant usefulness; Optimum refers to the
level above which there is no significant improvement in usefulness. The following only addresses
the thresholds and optimum levels that can be obtained from the operational meteorological
satellites. High-resolution data from the Earth Resource Satellites (RADARSAT, SPOT, etc) are
required for mapping and providing parameters for many hydrological models.

Data Resolution Requirements

GOES and POES

Threshold

Optimum
CHANNELS
Space Time

Space Time
VIS

1 km
1 hr

1 km
5 min
3.9 micron

4 km
1 hr

1 km
5 min
6.7 micron

8 km
1 hr

1 km
5 min
10.7 micron
4 km
1 hr

1 km
5 min
12.0 micron
4 km
1 hr

1 km
5 min
85.5 GHz

15 x 13 km 12 hr

10 x 10 km 15 min
37.0 GHz

37 x 28 km 12 hr

10 x 10 km 15 min
22.2 GHz

50 x 40 km 12 hr

10 x 10 km 15 min
19.3 GHz

69 x 43 km 12 hr

10 x 10 km 15 min

Product Resolution Requirements

Products

Threshold

Optimum

Space Time

Space Time
Precipitation:
50km
3 hour

1km
5 min
Soil Wetness Index:
50km
daily

10km
4 times/day
Composited PW
50km
2 times/day

10km
hourly

Polar Orbit Satellite Products and Services
There exists today at least a dozen earth observation satellites currently collecting data that are
useful for flood management applications. Tables 2 through 4 include a compilation of specific
data requirements for high-resolution satellite data sets related to flood disasters. Three categories of
requirements are spatial resolution, temporal resolution, and satellite systems/sensors.

Table 2

Spatial Resolution Requirements (by application)

Application

Phase
Threshold

Optimum

Land use

pre-flood
30 meter (MSI)

4-5 meter (MSI)
post-flood

" "
" "

Infrastructure status

pre-flood
5 meter (pan-vis)

<= 1 meter (pan-vis)
post-flood

" "
" "

Vegetation

pre-flood
<= 250 meter (M/HSI)
<= 30 meter (M/HSI)
post-flood

" "
" "

Soil
Moisture
pre-flood 1
km
100
meter
Snow
Pack
pre-flood 1
km
100
meter

DEM (vertical)

pre-flood
1-3 meter (INSAR/pan-vis)
0.10-0.15 meter
post-flood

" "
" "

Flood development

during flood <= 30 meter (SAR/MSI/
<= 5 meter
and
flood
peak
post
flood
vis-pan/IR)

Damage assessment
post flood
2-5 meter (MSI/pan-vis/ SAR) 0.3 meter
(incl.
feedback/lessons

learned)

Bathymetry (near-shore)
pre-flood
< 1 km (SAR/MSI)

90 meter
______________________________________________
MSI = multi-spectral imagery (2 to 50 bands)
HSI = hyper-spectral imagery (> 50 bands)
pan-vis = panchromatic visible imagery
SAR = synthetic aperture radar
INSAR = interferometric SAR

Table 3
Temporal resolution requirements (by application)

Image refresh rate

Image delivery time
Application
(Threshold/Optimum)
(Threshold/Optimum)

Infrastructure status

1-3 yrs / 6 months

months

Land
use
1-3
yrs
/
6
months
months

Vegetation
3
months
/
1
month
months
Soil Moisture

1 week/daily

1 day
Snow
Pack
2
month/1
week 1
day

DEM pre- and post-flood
1-3 yrs / months

months

Flood development

hours-days (function of hours-days
(function
of
Flood
peak
drainage
basin)
drainage
basin)
/
24-hr from tasking to delivery

Damage
assessment
n/a
2-3
days
/
<
1
day

Bathymetry pre- and
1-3 yrs / months

months
post-flood
Table 4

Satellite systems to be used for data

System
Status
Capabilities
ALOS Planned
Radar,
optical
DMSP Existing
Optical,
IR
ENVISAT
Planned Radar, optical, IR
ERS 1 & 2
Existing
Radar, 5-500km swath, 25m
resolution
Ikonos 1-2
June 99
Optical 1 and 4m resolution
IRS
Existing
Optical, 150 km swath, 36m
resolution
KVR-1000
Existing
Optical 150 km swath, 2 m
LANDSAT 5
Existing
Optical, IR 185 km swath, 30m,
80m
LANDSAT 7
April 99
Optical, IR 185 km swath, 30m,
80m
NOAA-GOES Existing Optical,
AVHRR
NOAA-POES Existing
In-situ visible and IR
observation
OrbView
Planned Optical 1, 2 and 4m
QuickBird
Planned Optical 1 m resolution
RADARSAT 1 Existing
Radar 45-510 km, 9-63m
RADARSAT 2 Planned Radar 10-500 km, 5-100m
Resurs-01 Existing
160-600
m
SeaWiFS
Existing
Optical, IR 1-4m sea
observations
SPOT 1-5
Existing
Optical 60km swath, 10m, 30m

There are several types of data products that are useful for disaster-management decision-making
(SAR, 1999). The type and complexity of data products used for disaster monitoring depend on the
stage of the disaster, (for mitigation and prevention purposes, early warning, or recovery
operations). The most useful type of satellite image products that have recently been exploited for
disaster management applications include:

Image maps These products are geocoded and geocorrected satellite images of the disaster area.
Image maps do not usually have intensive interpretation and may include place names and general
feature identification. These are most useful if they are available during the disaster event to
understand the general area affected, and are effective in visualizing a disaster scene "before" and
"after" the event.

Image maps with integration of local GIS data When satellite imagery is combined with
other GIS data such as land use, slope, aspect, transportation and infrastructure networks, an
analysis may be done of the high risk areas that may be subject to damage from disasters.
Integration of GIS data with current satellite imagery requires time and effort, but also renders this
type of product valuable for disaster mitigation and prevention purposes.
Image maps with cartographic data Map information can be combined with satellite imagery
to produce a composite, which is valuable for precise mapping of an affected disaster area.
Digital files Digital products can be produced in various scales and forms. Data providers from
satellite companies distribute various types of digital products -- some in raw formats, where the
user must conduct their own processing techniques, or some in pre-processed form, which greatly
enhances the time to produce a final product. These files, depending on their size, can be sent via
Internet email, File Transfer Protocols (FTP) or simply by courier to the user.

Digital information for modeling purposes Information derived from satellites is distributed
for the purpose of inputting into numerical model data. This data is usually used by academic,
research or more sophisticated users.

V.
FUTURE
IMPROVEMENTS AND
REQUIREMENTS

As described previously, remote sensing contributes to the complex problem of flood management.
However, gaps remain and remote-sensing data is not being used to its full potential to help alleviate
this problem. Improvements can be divided into four categories: (1) methodology, (2) science, (3)
technology, and (4) data management. Such improvements can contribute to the cost-effectiveness
of EOS (Earth Observation Satellites).

1. Methodology
There is a need for coherent integration with all other disciplines that are operating in regard to flood
hazards. In the past, providers of data have been working too often in a vacuum and not
interacting enough with the user community. Providers must begin to consider more carefully issues
related to data acquisition, data elaboration, scientific interpretation of natural phenomena, and the
needs of users. On many occasions, remote sensing techniques have been in competition with the
more traditional methods. In the field of floods, where there are many information gaps, integration
of both the remote sensing and traditional techniques is strongly recommended for the benefit of the
final users.

Regarding flood hazards, the main methodological improvements recommended are:
(a) An integrated approach with other disciplines (data fusion); this includes R&D on
integrated approaches of Hydro models, remote sensing, and GIS (Geographic Information
System); which can lead to methodologies that improve valorization of remote sensing data;
(b) A differentiated approach according to the typology of the event (flood plain, flash floods,
dam breaks, ice jams, storm surges)
(c) An integrated approach between flood and slope instability, as different aspects of the
same dynamic system (the drainage basin); and
(d) Improved GIS integration.

2. Science
The scientific gaps are related to improvements in the satellite-derived precipitation algorithms.
Currently, most of the satellite rainfall techniques were developed for tropical convective systems. In
order to make these algorithms more robust, calibration and validation must be undertaken for
various types of precipitation systems (extra-tropical and tropical). Improvements are needed in
ground truth precipitation measurements so that the satellite algorithms can become more mature
and reliable. Precipitation measurements from TRMM and meso-networks around the world will
provide such information. Ba and Gruber (1998) initiated efforts to incorporate GOES multi-channel
information into a rainfall algorithm. Turk (1998) and Vicente, (1994) have developed algorithms
that combine SSM/I and GOES IR to provide regional scale precipitation analyses. Hopefully,
microwave measurements will help to provide a robust methodology in which histograms and
probability matching will be used to continuously update GOES precipitation measurements, with
respect to both intensity and location. Thus, using multi-spectral and multi-sensor data, combined
with ancillary information will help lead to achievement of advanced precipitation algorithms.

The full benefit of remote sensing for applications related to flooding is likely to come from the
integration of data from a variety of sensors operating in wavelengths from microwave to visible and
infrared. This will pose new challenges in the development of inversion models to quantify the
hydrological variable being observed and in the use of geographic information systems to relate
these spatial and temporal data sets. In addition, the newly developed physically-based distributed
hydrological models will need to be refined to make full use of the high spatial and temporal
frequencies of the observations that may be obtained. In addressing these challenges, we will gain a
better understanding of hydrologic processes at the local, regional and global scales.

3. Technology
More improvements are needed in the field of technology. These enhancements include:
(a) Increase time and frequency of coverage
(b) Improvement of coverage access and delivery
(c) Increased resolution of DTM for local application -- this includes very local (1m)
information (town, small watershed, etc) that is very precise and available in the shortest
period of time
(d) Achieve the ability to access information from all available data sources
(e) Formulate procedures that affects awareness, access, products and services
(f) Launch meteorological satellites with higher resolution sensors both in time and space
(g) Place microwave onboard operational geostationary meteorological satellites

A good way to improve the utility of the data is to increase its usage. Current prices for high-
resolution satellite data sets are often too high to allow for routine use. Perhaps an increase in
marketing will increase volume to the point where prices become more affordable for routine and
contingency operational use.

4. Data Management
The requirements mentioned earlier in this report state the need for higher spatial and temporal
resolution of remote sensor data sets from an increasing number for satellite platforms. Inherent in
these requirements is the need for enhanced data management techniques and technologies. The
graphical nature of satellite data and associated products means that larger and more efficient data
networks are needed along with state-of-the-art data compression capability. Satellite data must also
be compatible with GIS software to maximize utility.

There is also a strong need for improving local capacity, education and training, international
coordination for response, and international data service to be able to facilitate access to data that is
understandable. Few end-users will be experts in the field of remote-sensing techniques. Thus, there
is a need for an increase in education and outreach on the increasing number of data types and
products that are available and the potential uses for each. Equally important is the need to
communicate to the end-users the strengths and limitations of each product so that disaster
managers can make decisions based on the appropriate assumptions for their data.

VI. SUMMARY AND
CONCLUSIONS

The following briefly summarizes the use of, and development required for the use of satellite data
for flood monitoring and prediction:

Prediction
· Prediction of floods through Numerical Weather prediction Models that produce Quantitative
Precipitation Forecasts (QPF)
· QPF can be inserted into hydrological models to predict river flows and crests
· Precipitable water products for assessing the atmosphere with respect to the magnitude of the
moisture and its transport
· Soil (surface) Wetness Index as an antecedent condition as to the wetness of the ground
· Land cover Maps
· Snow cover Maps
· Digital Elevation Models (DEM)
· Flood Risk Maps

Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction
· Estimation of precipitation amounts through Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE)
Algorithms
· QPE can be inserted into hydrological models to predict river flows and crests
· NOWCASTS -- 3 hour outlooks of precipitation
· Estimation of flood extent using SSM/I, NOAA high-resolution imagery, SAR (RADARSAT,
JERS, ERS), SPOT and LANDSAT.
· Damage Assessment

Algorithm and Technique Improvements Required
· Development of methods for the integration of satellite, in-situ and GIS data for input into
hydrological models
· Development of multi-sensor/satellite integration methods
· Addition of microwave sensor on GOES
· Estimation of soil moisture and snowpack characteristics from high resolution microwave data
· Improve satellite rainfall estimation techniques
· Increase temporal frequency of polar orbiting satellite data acquisitions
· Decrease time required to acquire and deliver remotely sensed data
· Lower the cost of remotely sensed data
· Develop techniques to generate high resolution DEM
· Education/Training to build local capability
· International coordination of data acquisitions

In closing, satellite-derived precipitation estimates for application to flash floods could be done
around the world as, long as GOES data is available and accessible. The potential for such
information was discussed in Section IV, along with case studies to illustrate the use of satellite
estimates in a heavy rainfall/flash flood event. Soil (surface) Wetness Indices, from SSM/I, are
available around the world to determine the wetness of the ground.

Improvements are needed in ground truth measurements so that the satellite algorithms can become
more mature and reliable. More robust satellite precipitation algorithms are needed that can better
screen non-raining clouds and produce better precipitation estimates from the more stratiform
events. These more mature algorithms will provide rapid response with a very low false alarm ratio.
The ultimate objective is to integrate the GOES with the SSM/I , radar and in-situ rain gauge
measurements to develop a multi-spectral/multi-sensor algorithm for estimating precipitation from all
types of cloud systems. Artificial neural network techniques for estimating heavy convective rainfall
have shown great potential (Zhang and Scofield, 1994). Finally, the CEOS Flood Team highly
recommends that there be microwave "flying" on operational GOES platforms that cover the globe
by the 2005 time frame.

Demonstration Project(s)
The Flood Hazard Team proposes that demonstration projects are required to illustrate and
educate the end-user community on the capabilities of satellite remotely sensed data to provide
information during all of the phases of the disaster cycle. The Team recommends leveraging the
opportunities created by the International Charter with other ongoing activities such as, but not
limited to, the Global Disaster Information Network, the Open-GIS Consortium, the Red River
Disaster Information Network and the Canadian GeoConnections initiatives. As developed and
developing countries have differing current capabilities with respect to flood forecast, response and
recovery it is envisioned that two demonstration projects should be conducted to address the
different levels of infrastructure available. Possible demonstration sites identified by the Team
include Central America, the Red River (United States/Canada) and the Oder River in Europe.

In order to properly execute the demonstration projects there will be a requirement to gain an
understanding of the current operations and requirements of the end users, which may be satisfied
wholly, or partly with remotely sensed data. This activity would be a two-way education process
conducted in preparation for the demonstration, well in advance of any actual flood event and
facilitate a mutual understanding of information/product requirements and the mechanisms to
communicate the information at local, regional and national scales. This should not be limited to
products derived solely from remotely sensed data but rather should integrate meteorological, in situ
and other geospatial data. Lastly, to ensure that there is a high international visibility, the Team
recommends that the demonstrations should have a public relations component incorporated into
the demonstration.

Scope
In forming emergency scenarios, the team went through a process of re-thinking the flood problem
and extracted several critical elements that are important for consideration: timeline, hydrological
parameterization, meteorological forecast, in-crisis phase, and flood damage assessment.

Mitigation and Preparedness
1) Hydrologic parameterization
· Land cover
· Infrastructure
· DEM
· Soil Moisture
· Snow pack characterization
· In situ observations ­ meteorological conditions, water stage and discharge

2) Meteorological forecasting/nowcasting
· Integrate NESDIS QPE/QPF "experimental" global rainfall estimates computed every hour using
infrared data from geostationary satellites for flash flood bearing thunderstorms and tropical
storms.

3) Flood Forecasting
· Integration of remotely sensed hydrological parameters, meteorological conditions and in situ
data in hydrological model for flood forecasting

Response and Recovery
· Flood Extent
· Damage Assessment
· Mitigation Recommendations

Data Requirements
· Temporal and Spatial optimal and minimum requirements specified in this report.


Proposed Flood Hazards Scenarios

Scenario #1

In this scenario, the trigger for a request for assistance would be that there is a potential of severe
flooding. This would involve the acquisition of all relevant remotely sensed, geospatial and in situ
data to evaluate the current hydrological conditions over a given watershed. Close collaboration
with local authorities is essential.

Value added processing of imagery or data

1.
Extraction of Hydrological Parameters for modeling purposes
2. Precipitation
forecasts
3. Land
cover/Infrastructure maps to document conditions before the flood
4.
Integration of in situ, geospatial and remotely sensed data
5.
Generation of Flood Risk Maps

Scenario #2

The trigger for this kind of request for assistance would be that there is a flood occurring with
significant social and economic impacts. Close collaboration with local authorities is essential.

Value added processing of imagery or data

1.
Extraction of flood extent
2.
Integration of Flood Extend with geospatial data
3. Damage
Assessment

The Project Manager will need to ask the end user what will work (ftp, Internet, courier, etc)
Proposed Flood Hazard Scenario

Obtain background information

Check if
Considered

1.

Name of River and watershed Boundaries (latitude, longitude)

2. Timeframe and location for potential flooding

3.

Responsible Agency

4.

Availability of in situ and existing geospatial data (i.e. Landcover, DEM)

5.

Secondary hazards (landslide potential)

6.

Location of buildings, roads, airports, hazardous waste sites etc.

7.

Expected response time of watershed (duration of flood)

8. Existing Hydrological Modeling capabilities and data requirements

Obtain current and future Flood status


1.

Remotely sensed extent of surface water

2.

Soil moisture conditions

3.

Snowpack conditions

4.

Precipitation Forecast

7

Current hydro-meteorological conditions

Priorities for image planning
1. SPOT ­ Preparedness and damage assessment

2.

Radar sat ­ Response and Mitigation
Choice of beam mode determined by scale of flooding (i.e. Local requires
Fine mode, regional requires Standard or ScanSAR modes)

3.

ERS - Response

4.

Search all archives for pre-flood imagery.

Acknowledgements
We thank all members of the CEOS "Flood Hazard and Remote Sensing" Team who contributed
so generously to this paper. Special thanks to Ms. Helen Wood of NOAA/NESDIS for her untiring
dedication in leading the overall CEOS Natural Disaster initiative and in supporting this paper.

FLOOD
HAZARD
TEAM
PARTICIPANTS

1.
Terry Pultz, co-lead
Canadian Centre for Remote Sensing (Canada)
2.
Rod Scofield, co-lead NOAA/NESDIS Office of Research and Applications (USA)
3.
David Barber
University of Manitoba, Centre for Earth Observation Sciences
(Canada)
4.
Peter Bauer

Duetsche Zestruun fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt (Germany)
5.
Tim Cohn

US Geological Survey, Water Resources Division (USA)
6.
Leona Dittus
US Department of Agriculture, Farm Service Agency (USA)
7.
Shinkichi Kishi
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster
Prevention, (Japan)
8.
Robert Miller
GEC Marconi Research Centre (UK)
9. John
Paquette
NOAA/NESDIS
Office of Satellite Data Processing & Distribution
(USA)
10.
Al Peterlin

US Department of Agriculture, World Agricultural Outlook Board,
(USA)
11.
Philippe Puyou
Centre National Etudes Spatiales/Scot Conseil (France)
12.
Charles Sun
NOAA/NESDIS, National Oceanographic Data Center (USA)

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T E A M
R E

P O R T IceICE HAZARDS
CEOS DISASTER
MANAGEMENT
SUPPORT
GROUP ______________________________________________________________________________

SUMMARY The purpose of this report is to identify requirements and review the current and projected utility of
earth observation space technology as applied to the detection, mapping and management of ice
hazards. Ice hazards include sea ice (ice that is formed from sea water) and icebergs (floating glacial
ice). This study was developed under the auspices of the Disaster Management Support Group
(DMSG) of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). This document was prepared by
an international working group composed of representatives with experience in remote sensing as
applied in the production of operational ice guidance products and services.

It is well known that sea ice and icebergs pose a serious hazard to shipping and other maritime
activities in the Polar Regions. The role of EOS data in operational ice monitoring is well
documented and has grown in importance over the years. EOS data from visible/infrared sensors
are potentially available to all ice services but are useful only under cloud-free conditions. Passive
microwave sensors can penetrate cloud cover but their effectiveness in ice monitoring is limited by
coarse resolution. Active microwave sensors, such as the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), are ideal
for ice mapping because of their high resolution, all weather, wide swath ice detection capability;
however it does not always provide unambiguous interpretation. Therefore it is extremely important
that all ice centers have access to EOS data in the various spectral ranges (e.g. visible, infrared and
microwave) to allow for the most accurate analysis of ice conditions. Investigations have also shown
that these data are also valuable in their ability to quantify other ice parameters in addition to ice
extent (concentration) and ice type (stage of development), such as ice topography, presence of
open water or thin ice openings within the sea ice pack, stages of ice decay and others. Sea ice
guidance products derived in real-time from these data are used operationally to ensure safety of
navigation by all vessels, maximize time and fuel savings of icebreaker lead convoys, determination
of most efficient and safest route, and protect life and property associated with human activities on
the ice. In contrast, the utility of EOS observations for iceberg detection is considered limited using
presently available sensors. Space-borne SAR sensors can be effective in depicting the location and
size of icebergs but only under low surface wind speed conditions.

The following recommendations support these requirements:
1. New and updated EOS sensors provide great promise for improving the applications of sea
ice mapping and iceberg detection.
2. Data from multi-spectral visible/infrared radiometers and scatterometers can be used to
generate automated sea ice maps.
3. SAR satellites with right/left looking beam steering, multiple polarization modes and
enhanced downlink capabilities will provide more valuable data in a shorter period of time
to the end user.
4. Coincidental collection of EOS data from multiple instruments, fused with ancillary
environmental data can resolve ambiguities and biases in conventional, single sensor
algorithms.
5. Affordable data continuity, accessible rapidly for near real time support.
6. Data policies must ease rapid access to EOS data for ice hazard detection & monitoring.
7. Collaborative efforts are needed between all the national ice services to ensure that EOS
data are shared, that ice products are issued in standard formats and most importantly that
customers are educated on the strengths, weaknesses and value of EOS data and Ice Hazard
products.
8. Improved/new sea ice/iceberg detection and classification algorithms.
9. Higher resolution coupled ice/ocean/atmosphere forecasting models to improve sea ice
forecasts in the Marginal Ice Zone(MIZ) and iceberg drift and ablation rates.

INTRODUCTION Eighteen nations, including Australia, Argentina, Canada, China, Denmark, Estonia, Finland,
Germany, Iceland, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, the Russian Federation,
Sweden and the United States operate national ice services that support shipping and other
maritime activities in ice encumbered waters. This support is outlined in the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) publication N0-574. From 1920 to the early 1960's, "in-situ" visual ice
observations from coastal stations, transiting ships and aircraft reconnaissance and patrols
represented the primary source of data on sea ice conditions and the location of icebergs. The
paucity of information made available by these collection methods and the serious hazard posed by
glacial ice to vessel operations gained international recognition and notoriety with the sinking of the
TITANTIC on April 15, 1912 (struck the iceberg on 14 April, sank in very early morning hours on 15
April). As a result of this accident, the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) International Ice Patrol (IIP) was
formed to provide iceberg detection and warning services to vessels operating in the North Atlantic
shipping lanes. Similarly, interest in many nations to develop more accurate methods for the
detection, monitoring and forecasting of sea ice did not occur until there were significant incidents
that threatened the safety of navigation and life and property at sea.

In winter 1937, which was logistically unexpected and different from the previous mild ones, within
the area of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) from Franz-Josef Land to New Siberian Islands 26 cargo
ships with approximately 1000 people were beset by ice. That catastrophe led to the establishment
of the Russian Ice Service much similar to the present, total duration of ice air reconnaissance being
one order greater in 1938 than in 1937. In 1951, operating under the code name Operation
Bluejay, 30 ships of a 33 U.S. Navy vessel convoy were severely damaged while attempting to
navigate along the west coast of Greenland to establish a Distant Early Warning station and air base
at Thule, Greenland (McDowell, 1990). In 1952, as a direct result of this accident, the U.S. Navy
established a formal sea ice monitoring program. Outside Russia and Denmark, most national ice
services at this time were fledgling programs that needed to collect information to build their
knowledge on sea ice characteristics and behavior. Beginning in the early 1960's, the capability to
collect data was enhanced when the Canadian Ice Service (CIS) introduced the use of search radars
on ice reconnaissance aircraft (Bertoia et al 1998). These radars provided, for the first time, a long-
range, cloud independent capability to detect ice. Unfortunately, these early instruments were
forward-looking, non-imaging sweep radars that were useful only in the accurate measurement of
range and bearing to the ice edge.

Due to limited range and expense, aerial reconnaissance was typically flown only in support of
specific vessel operations. Knowledge on the overall extent, thickness and behavior of the polar ice
cover in both hemispheres was viewed as incomplete, thus posing a continual hazard to vessel
operations. It was only during the 1960's that sea ice detection and monitoring entered a new era of
remote sensing with the launch of weather satellites by the United States. The usefulness of
"pictures" taken by vidicon cameras for gross ice mapping was recognized immediately after the
launch of the first TIROS research and development satellite in 1960 (Wark and Popham, 1962). By
the late 1960's and 1970's, improvements in satellite technology (ESSA satellites on polar orbits)
allowed for the real-time use of these data for operational ice mapping (Strübing 1970). NOAA-2
(launched in October, 1972) carried a dual channel Very High Resolution Radiometer (VHRR) that
provided visual and thermal imagery via direct global and local read-out. The NASA research
satellite, NIMBUS-5 (launched in December, 1972) included an Electrically Scanning Microwave
Radiometer (ESMR) that provided coarse resolution, all-weather, passive microwave data. These
data, coupled with traditional data sources, allowed the U.S. National Ice Center (NIC) to initiate
weekly global ice mapping program of all Arctic and Antarctic seas.

In the early 1970's, improvements in radar technology resulted in the deployment and use of real
aperture Side-Looking Airborne Radar (SLAR) on patrol aircraft. Several national ice services used
these SLAR data to extend the range of aircraft providing traditional visual observations and to
complement the visual, thermal and passive microwave imagery received from satellites. In June
1978, the benefits of merging rapid advancements in radar technology and satellites were seen in
the launch of the NASA research satellite, SEASAT. SEASAT was the first satellite dedicated to using
active microwave sensors for ocean observation. Although limited to only 105 days in orbit,
SEASAT provided high resolution images which confirmed that a space-borne Synthetic Aperture
Radar (SAR) can be a powerful tool in ice detection and mapping (Teleki et. al., 1979).

Today, Earth Observation Satellites (EOS) are used almost exclusively to provide operational
information on the extent, concentration, distribution and thickness of sea/lake ice. In
demonstration projects, EOS data are now being used to detect, forecast and assess the damage of
destructive river ice break-up and ice jams. Additionally, the USCG IIP and CIS are using EOS data
for research purposes to detect and map icebergs in the North Atlantic.

General Application Description
The requirement for the detection, mitigation and management of the potential hazards posed by ice
originated with early 19th and 20th century polar exploration. Vessel expeditions attempting to find
and exploit the Northwest Passage, the Russian Northern Sea Route or the resources found in or
beneath the frozen waters of the Arctic and Antarctic were often damaged, beset or destroyed by sea
ice. Today, the operational detection of sea ice, icebergs and river/lake ice is vital to ensuring the
safety of vessel operations and the commercial viability of associated industries, such as marine
transportation, fishing, oil exploration and tourism. National governments are also interested in
these data to support components of national defense, scientific research, long-term climate
monitoring and environmental programs. Local interest is typically centered on the effect a heavy
ice cover has on local economies. For example, native and indigenous people often use unstable
shorefast ice as platforms for marine mammal hunts and ice angling. Additionally, severe ice
conditions like those observed along the U.S. east coast (e.g. Chesapeake Bay) in the winter of
1976-77 (Foster, 1982) can cause a disruption of maritime fuel oil deliveries, the closure of fishing
areas and local navigation as well as extensive infrastructure damage such as loss of coastal
navigational aides and docking facilities.

Specific user requirements for ice information can often be quite diverse depending on the user
application or the capabilities of a vessel. Non-ice strengthened vessels require timely ice edge and
iceberg limit information in order to plan their routes to avoid all known ice. For example, highly
vulnerable crab and fishing ships operate directly adjacent to the rapidly changing ice edge in the
Bering Sea during the volatile winter weather months. In contrast, vessels with hull strengthening
and some degree of ice capability require information detailing ice concentration distribution and
associated ice thickness. This information can be used to exploit the ice cover by planning routes
more effectively. Even the most capable icebreakers use information on openings in the ice (e.g.
leads and polynyas) to choose the path of least resistance in order to achieve greatest fuel economy.
Additionally, submarines operating under the ice require ice opening and ice thickness information
to assist in surfacing within the ice and in the successful transit of shallow ice-covered waterways.

In the Polar Regions, sea ice varies both spatially and temporally due to high variability in the
environmental processes that form, advect and decay the ice. All international ice service
organizations produce ice analyses describing current sea ice conditions. The production of these
analyses is dependent almost exclusively on the availability and use of EOS data. Although accurate
spatial depiction of ice conditions is important to the mariner, temporal accuracy is generally of
much greater importance. Ideally, vessels at sea prefer to receive high-resolution satellite images
that are less than 6 hours old and have been interpreted to provide the information necessary to
avoid or exploit the ice. Sea ice parameters required by users at sea include the location of the ice
edge, concentration distribution, stage of development, floe size, amount of pressure ridging or
topography, location and orientation of ice openings, degree of ice compaction and divergence and
stage of decay during the summer melt season. Additionally, information on the location and size of
icebergs is essential in waters located near or downstream of ice shelves and glaciers.

Mitigation and preparedness for hazards posed by ice requires not only accurate ice analyses
(describing current ice conditions) but also short (less than 72 hour) to long-term (168 hour to
monthly/seasonal) ice forecasts. Most national ice services have developed and are using coupled
ice/ocean/atmospheric models to predict short-term changes the movement, formation and ablation
of sea ice and icebergs. Long-term monthly and seasonal forecasts are important to mission
planning, particularly the prediction of the opening and closing of well-known navigational
chokepoints (e.g Bering strait, north slope of Alaska east to Prudhoe Bay and various locations
along the Russian Northern Sea Route). Additionally, to effectively describe the sea ice cover,
nations with Arctic interests have developed a set of common terminology to describe the nature of
sea ice and its behavior. This compendium of internationally accepted ice terminology and
symbology was adopted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1968. This
terminology was compiled into a volume including illustrative sea ice and iceberg photographs and
was issued as a publication entitled WMO Sea-ice Nomenclature (Publication No. 259) in 1970.
This publication, supplemented from time to time, remains the source of accepted terminology and
symbology for sea ice mapping and the identification of icebergs.

SPECIFIC
APPLICATION
DESCRIPTION a) Hazard Type:

Sea Ice/Lake Ice Cover
User Level:

International,
Regional,
National,
State
Disaster Mgmt Category:
Mitigation/Preparedness (surveillance, detection, and warning)
Operational Status:
Operational over all ice-covered seas

The majority of national ice services presently produce sea ice/lake ice guidance products in a digital
workstation environment using data from polar orbiting satellites, ship/shore station reports, drifting
buoys, meteorological guidance products, ice model predictions and on a limited basis, aerial ice
reconnaissance flights. Among the presently available operational data sources, satellite imagery
now constitutes the largest percentage of information received and integrated into global ice analysis
products. Traditional data collection methods, such as visual aerial ice reconnaissance, require
extensive pre-planning, are limited in geographic scope and are generally not cost effective. Real-
time satellite data in the visible, infrared and microwave bands of the spectrum are now used
extensively, and are an essential requirement for ice services to ensure safety of navigation and
protect life and property in ice-covered seas and lakes.

Today's commonly used optical, thermal, passive microwave and active radar satellite systems
possess characteristic strengths and weaknesses with respect to spatial resolution, detection
capability and classification accuracy of the sea and lake ice cover. Additionally, the orbit of the
satellite directly effects the geographical coverage and revisit time. Meteorological satellites fall into
two categories based on their orbits: Geostationary or Polar. Orbiting at an altitude of 35,800 km
and at the same rate as the earth, geostationary satellites provide superior temporal resolution with
images available every 15-30 minutes. Thus, visible and infrared imagery from geostationary (e.g.
GOES-8, GOES-10, METEOSAT and GMS) are used by several national ice services to monitor ice
in lower latitude seas and lakes. Unlike the Polar Regions, these lower latitudes do not suffer from
persistent illumination problems that can restrict the use of visible imagery. In North American
areas, this is important because the Geostationary Environmental Satellite (GOES) 8/10 Imager
instrument consists of visible and infrared channels that have spatial resolutions of 1 km and 4 km,
respectively. The latter does not provide data of sufficient spatial resolution to do detailed ice
mapping.

In terms of geographic coverage in the Polar Regions, polar orbiting satellites are the primary source
for visible and infrared data for ice monitoring. The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Polar Environmental Satellite
(POES) operate at an altitude of approximately 830 km with a period of 102 minutes. With multiple
satellites operating at any one time, many images are available each day in the Polar Regions. With
five or six (NOAA-15) spectral channels and a 1.1 km spatial resolution (at nadir), visible and
infrared imagery from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) is an effective tool
for ice mapping. AVHRR imagery can be used to accurately depict the location of the ice edge, ice
concentration, ice stage of development and physical surface temperature (Emery et al. 1991, 1994;
Massom and Comiso 1994). In contrast, the DMSP Operational Linescan System (OLS) provides
visible and thermal data from only two spectral channels but at improved 0.55 km spatial resolution
that is consistent across the width of the swath. Additionally, the OLS visible channel often produces
images with better sea ice and water contrast than either AVHRR channels 1 or 2. This effect occurs
because the broad spectral wavelength of the OLS suppresses optically thin clouds when compared
to surface features (Isaacs and Barnes 1987). Creating bispectral composite AVHRR images based
on the difference between the visible and near-infrared channels (Lee et al. 1993) can generate a
similar but improved effect. Unfortunately, these arithmetic image manipulation functions are
limited in their effectiveness when extensive, heavy cloud cover is present.

Climatologically, cloud cover may be present over 80% of the time over the Arctic ice pack and the
Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) during the important summer shipping months (Benner et al. 1992).
Visible and infrared data also require considerable expertise in manual image interpretation
techniques that use texture, tone, shape and persistence to separate ice from clouds and water.
Additionally, due to the fact that thermal contrasts between water and ice are not as large as
reflectance (albedo) differences, infrared imagery generally requires image enhancement.

Passive microwave sensors are useful for sea ice mapping because emitted energy in this portion of
the electromagnetic spectrum are not limited by clouds or illumination. Additionally, the measured
brightness temperature (Tb) is a function that depends more directly upon the geophysical
parameters of the sea ice (Comiso 1983; Cavalieri et al. 1984; Kwok et al. 1992; Kwok and
Cunningham 1994 and Fung 1994). The Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), a multi-channel microwave radiometer onboard the DMSP satellites, can be used to generate global ice
concentration and first year/multiyear ice classification products (Cavalieri 1994; Kwok et al. 1996).
Many national ice services employ algorithms using some combination of the 19 and 37 GHz
channels to produce 25 km gridded mosaic ice maps. These products assist in the general
delineation of the ice edge and inner pack concentrations in cloud-covered areas. Unfortunately, the
coarse resolution precludes detailed analyses and great care must be taken to account for
contamination errors induced by surface meltwater and coastlines.

Similar to passive microwave, SAR satellite systems (Canadian RADARSAT; European ERS-2;
Japanese JERS (recently failed) and Russian ALMAZ) are not affected by clouds or darkness. SAR
instruments use active microwave pulses to collect high spatial resolution (10-100 meter) data over
varying swaths at fixed or selectable incidence angles. ERS-2 is presently being used by some
European ice services to routinely map and monitor ice in portions of the Baltic Sea. In general
though, the ERS is limited in its effectiveness to accomplish large-scale ice mapping because the
single frequency/single polarization SAR has a fixed incidence angle and relatively narrow swath
width (100km). In comparison, RADARSAT's C-band SAR has a steerable beam (thus variable
incidence angle) and a SCANSAR mode that provides data with a 100 m spatial resolution and a
500 km wide swath. These characteristics back-up the Canadian Space Agency's (CSA) claim that
RADARSAT is the world's first radar satellite specifically designed to maximize its usefulness for sea
ice monitoring. RADARSAT's wide swath provides high repeat imaging capability that can image
every point on the earth's surface north of 65N latitude at least once every day. North of 45N, the
entire globe can be covered in 3 days or less. Four Command Data Acquisition (CDA) stations
(Fairbanks, Alaska; Gatineau, Canada; West Freugh, Scotland and Tromso, Norway) provide near
complete Arctic coverage. Arctic images are typically quick-look processed and transferred via
dedicated communications lines or Internet to national ice centers within three hours of acquisition.
No SAR imagery are routinely integrated into ice analyses of the Antarctic seas because of tape
recorder limitations and data delivery delays associated with communications to/from the McMurdo
ground receiving station.

The Russian OKEAN-01 polar orbiting satellite series is unique for ice mapping because it carries
three intermediate resolution instruments that have the capability of simultaneously collecting
passive microwave, Real Aperture Radar (RAR) and optical imagery. The passive microwave
instrument (36 GHz horizontal), X-band RAR and single channel (0.8-1.1um) optical sensor
provides imagery with 15km, 1.2km and 1.0km spatial resolution, respectively. Ice maps produced
using simultaneously acquired passive and active microwave OKEAN data have compared favorably
to concurrent SSM/I and AVHRR ice classifications in several case studies of northern Russian seas
(Belchansky G. et al, 2000).

b) Hazard Type:

Icebergs
User Level:

International,
Regional,
and
National
Disaster Mgmt Category:
Mitigation/Preparedness (surveillance, detection, and warning)
Operational Status:
Operational in North Atlantic and Antarctic

Icebergs are masses of freshwater ice that have broken off or calved from the edges of glaciers
whose termini make contact with the sea or that have resulted from the fragmentation of larger
icebergs already afloat (Loset et al. 1993.) The rate of production of icebergs is highly variable,
being influenced by glacier velocity, degree of crevassing, ocean waves, swell and tidal variations,
temperature and sea ice extent (Loset et al. 1993; Vinje 1989). Maximum production tends to occur
in the summer when sea ice extent is at a minimum, temperature (and the glaciers) are at the
warmest and wave action is most intense (Vinje 1989). Icebergs are classified on the basis of size
and shape. The WMO (1970) system defines three size classes (icebergs, bergy bits and growlers)
and six shape classes (tabular, dome, sloping, pinnacled, weathered and glacier). Presently,
operational data collection by the International Ice Patrol is limited to visual observations, Side
Looking Airborne Radar (SLAR), and Forward Looking Airborne Radar (FLAR) data from planned
aerial reconnaissance flights and opportunistic ship reports. Attempts have been made to include
EOS data to give synoptic views of large areas. Unfortunately, until recently, the utility of satellite
observations (visible, infrared and passive microwave) were considered limited due to an inability to
penetrate cloud cover and darkness, inadequate spatial resolution and/or poor revisit times.
Research activities are presently evaluating the effectiveness of space-borne SAR's to detect icebergs.

Active microwave systems provide two-dimensional images of variations in backscatter that are
difficult to interpret when compared to visible/infrared imagery. First, imaging radars are subject to
speckle noise. This noise can be reduced by spatial averaging of the image resulting in a higher
signal/noise ratio but at the expense of spatial resolution (Rees 1990). High speckle noise can inhibit
the effectiveness of detecting small icebergs and often results in a significant number of false alarms
(Willis et al. 1996). Backscatter differences are the result of surface and volume scattering of the
target (in this case, an iceberg) and surrounding medium (sea water or sea ice). High wind speeds
and resulting rough seas can mask the signal from an iceberg (Steffen et al. 1992a). In calmer
conditions, icebergs sometimes give a bright target return with neighboring radar "shadow" that can
be used to estimate iceberg volume or size (Larsen et al. 1978).

Iceberg detection algorithms using the ERS-1 SAR (C-band, VV polarized and 23 degree fixed
incidence angle) demonstrated that 100 meter data could be used to detect even Arctic and North
Atlantic icebergs with great success under "optimal conditions" (Willis et al.1996). Optimal
conditions are those with wind speeds below 5 meters/sec and no sea ice or land within the image.
At 100 meter spatial resolution, ERS-1 imagery detected 100% of large icebergs (120-200m width),
90% of medium size icebergs (60-120m width) and approximately 40% of small icebergs (15-60m
width) (Willis et al. 1996). It is important to note that the less than desirable detection rate of small
icebergs is a significant problem since small icebergs, bergy bits and growlers present the greatest
danger to maritime shipping in that they are extremely difficult to detect with shipboard surface
search radars. It was noted however that the SAR's iceberg detection capabilities decreased
significantly with increasing wind speeds. Willis et al (1996) stated that iceberg detection using
space-borne SAR's would be most effective with the following preferred radar parameters: as high
frequency instrument as possible, horizontal polarization and large incidence angles. With this
knowledge, the IIP and CIS are presently conducting research evaluating the utility of Radarsat SAR
data for iceberg detection. Radarsat operates a C-band instrument, HH polarization, wide swath
widths (up to 500km), variable incidence angles (20-60 degrees) and almost daily coverage in the
high latitudes.

As described above, iceberg detection using EOS data is heavily dependent on iceberg size and
surrounding environmental conditions. In the southern hemisphere, large tabular icebergs routinely
calve from the numerous ice shelves in the Antarctic. Due to the enormous numbers of icebergs in
this region and the absence of "in-situ" ground truth information, only very large icebergs (typically
exceeding 10 nautical miles along the long axis) are detected and routinely mapped. In most cases,
these icebergs are detected and tracked using AVHRR and OLS visible/infrared imagery. Large
iceberg calving events are typically detected by significant changes in the ice shelf boundaries. Once
within the sea ice pack, albedo similarities between icebergs and sea ice make detection and tracking
difficult. Under certain conditions, visible and infrared imagery does show characteristic iceberg
signatures. These signatures include leeward open water areas resulting from iceberg movements at
a different velocity or direction than that of the surrounding sea ice (Strübing 1974). Surface
temperature differences can also distinguish thicker bergs (up to 250m in freeboard) from the
surrounding sea ice pack. The former effect is based upon the findings that larger icebergs with
deep keel drafts are driven primarily by ocean currents (Gustajtis 1979) vice surface winds for sea
ice.
c) Hazard Type:

Shorefast, Lake and River Ice Break-up
User Level:

International, Regional, and National
Disaster Mgmt Category:
Mitigation/Preparedness/Relief (surveillance, detection,
Warning and damage assessment)
Operational Status:
Operational for navigable areas of the NSR, research with
demonstration status in other selected Arctic coastal areas.

As described in the previous sea/lake ice section, data from EO satellites are critical for sea ice/lake
ice hazard monitoring. Shorefast ice is defined as sea/freshwater ice that is attached to the coastline.
River ice is a type of shorefast ice that forms in many estuarine systems in the polar regions. Human
activities, such as Great Lakes ice fishing and whale hunts by Arctic indigenous people, use the
stable lake or shorefast ice as a "platform" to conduct these endeavors. In the archipelagoes of the
northern part of the Baltic Sea the fast ice in between is used for local car traffic, and also as a
protected area (e.g. a 10m navigation channel runs along the southern coast of Finland) against ice
pressure at sea. Unpredicted break-up of these ice types can threaten the safety of lives and
property. In contrast, river ice break-up poses a hazard but typically only to vessels operating in the
river. River break-up is usually an event of short duration but characterized by hazardous
destructive forces. Human settlements are typically threatened only by associated flooding resulting
from ice jams.
Visible and infrared EOS data are effective in providing general information on the location of
shorefast boundaries. The shear zone caused by moving pack ice adjacent the fixed shorefast ice is
often quite distinct in AVHRR/OLS imagery. Thickness information must however be obtained from
"in-situ" measurements (ice cores) or estimated by freezing degree day (air temperature) models.
Space-borne SAR systems are the preferred data source to mitigate and assess the effects of this ice
hazard. SAR imagery is high resolution and not affected by clouds and darkness. Thus, these data
are ideal for characterizing and monitoring the shorefast, lake and river ice. Unfortunately, what is
really needed is a better understanding of the environmental processes that cause the break-up of
this ice. Research highlighting case studies that couple EOS data with "in-situ"
meteorological/oceanographic observations are needed to enhance the preparedness and
capabilities of ice services to issue accurate forecasts. The NOAA Alaskan Demonstration Project is
presently making high resolution Radarsat SAR-based products coupled with coincident ancillary
environmental data available to state regulatory agencies (Alaska River Forecast Office) responsible
for monitoring ice break-up in the Yukon River system (Lunsford 1998). Prototype products such as
advisories predicting the break-up of shorefast ice are now being issued by CIS for the Arctic Bay
and Pond Inlet areas of the Canadian Arctic. Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI)
operational provides forecasts of fast ice breakup for navigable areas of the Northern Sea Route
including estuaries, e.g. March forecast of fast ice breakup in June for Vilkitskii Strait.

PRODUCTS AND
SERVICES a) National Ice Information Services
A detailed description of all eighteen national ice services (Appendix B) can be found in WMO
publication No. 574 "Sea Ice Services in the World". This publication is available as hardcopy from
the WMO Secretariat or as a softcopy from the WMO/IOC Global Digital Sea Ice Data Bank website
(http://www.aari.nw.ru/gdsidb/pub/WMO-574.pdf). In general, national sea ice services provide a
diverse suite of digital and analog ice guidance products in support of mission planning, operations
and research in the ice-covered seas in the northern and southern hemispheres. In the United States
and Canada, this service is extended to the Great Lakes. Routine ice guidance products include
regional and local-scale ice analyses, annotated satellite imagery, short to long-term ice forecasts,
legacy ice information, ice climatologies and iceberg reports. Ice analyses typically document the
date and time of data used in each analysis in a metadata narrative. Ice product formats include a)
paper charts, b) simple electronic charts in GIF or Adobe Acrobat formats and c) Geographic
Information System (GIS) compatible (e.g. ESRI ARC/INFO .e00 or SHAPEFILE export format)
coverages. International standards for archival include the WMO digital standard for Sea Ice in
GRIDed (SIGRID, SIGRID-2) formats. Almost all ice analysis charts are labeled using the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) international sea ice symbology. Additionally, many national
organizations provide services available via special request. These services include Optimum Track
Ship Routing (OTSR) recommendations, pre-sail ship briefings, aerial ice reconnaissance and ship
rider support.

The U.S.Coast Guard IIP and CIS provide information on North Atlantic icebergs daily. The IIP
distributes information on the southern and eastern extent of all known icebergs in the North
Atlantic/Grand Banks region of Newfoundland. During the iceberg season (Feb-Aug), the IIP
distributes information on the southern extent of all known icebergs every 12 hours. Size and time
of sighting for all reported icebergs are routinely entered into an iceberg forecast model. Initialized
daily with surface wind and ocean current information, the Berg Analysis Prediction Systems (BAPS)
model is used to predict iceberg drift and estimated rates of deterioration. Model output is critical in
predicting movement and longevity of icebergs in North Atlantic shipping lanes. CIS provides
information on icebergs within the Canadian Exclusive Economic Zone year-round and collaborates
closely with the IIP. Both use the same BAPS model and exchange information daily.

b) User Types
The table below lists the specific ice hazard applications and subsequent user communities that have
been identified for EOS data and resulting ice guidance products.

Application User
Level Category
Status
Sea and Lake Ice
Detection for Avoidance
International, National,
Regional, State
Mitigation, Preparedness
Operational
Sea and Lake Ice
Characterization for
Exploitation (safety,
efficiency of mission)
International, National,
Regional, State
Mitigation, Preparedness
Operational
Beset Vessel in Sea and
Lake Ice
International, National
Mitigation, Preparedness,
Response
Operational
Iceberg Detection for
Avoidance
International, National
Mitigation, Preparedness
Operational,
Research
Landfast, Lake and River
Ice Break-up
State, Local
Mitigation, Preparedness,
Response, Relief
Operational,
Demonstration,
Research

Sea Ice Detection for Avoidance
The majority of users interested in real-time EOS data and operational sea ice products have a basic
requirement to avoid sea ice. All vessels operating near ice-covered waters are users of these data.
Knowledge of the exact position of an ice edge is critical to a submarine patrolling underwater but
navigating with a periscope. When under the ice, submarines need information on pressure ridging
and associated keel depths. Non-ice strengthened government research vessels conducting ocean
surveys will in most cases attempt to totally avoid the ice. Similarly, federal and state interest also
exists in non-reinforced vessels that are part of the marine transportation, fishing, oil exploration and
tourism industries.

Sea Ice Characterization for Exploitation
Knowledge on the characteristics of the sea ice cover is important to both the operational and
scientific research communities. National interest lies in the operation of military vessels (e.g.
submarines), Government owned icebreakers (e.g. Argentina, Canada, Finland, Germany, Japan,
Russia, Sweden and the United States) and ice strengthened research vessels. Icebreaker led
convoys want to know the optimum track through ice to maximize time and fuel savings. Many
commercial industries have ice-strengthened cargo vessels with the same need for information to
exploit the ice cover. For example, along Russia's Northern Sea Route Norilsk-class cargo vessels are
capable of maintaining continuous progress through one meter of first-year ice but must avoid areas
of high ice concentration under pressure or those dominated by thicker multiyear ice (Brigham
1991). Although not used specifically for exploitation purposes, other users of sea ice extent and
coverage information include the international scientific community interested in long-term climate
monitoring. Climate models suggest that the Arctic environment is particularly sensitive to global
climate change and that sea ice (extent and thickness) is the one geophysical variable that is most
sensitive to climate variability (Wadhams 1994). Accurate and complete EOS-derived records of sea
ice are recognized as being extremely important to scientific research (Parkinson et al. 1987). As
vessels move to Electronic Chart and Display Systems (ECDIS), ice conditions will be required in
near real-time. The development and approval of international formats for display and distribution
of ice information to ECDIS will increase the safety of navigation near and in ice-infested waters.

Beset Vessels in Sea Ice
Sea ice information intended to assist in the freeing of beset vessels typically receives international
and national attention. Vessels that become beset in ice are typically icebreakers or ice-strengthened
research vessels operating in the high Arctic or Antarctic ice packs. In the fall of 1983, for example,
15 cargo vessels and several icebreakers that were part of a Russian convoy transiting the Northern
Sea Route were beset for weeks in the Chukchi Sea (Brigham 1991). In mid-February 1979 a
heavy snow storm resulted in a wide jammed brash ice barrier along the German coast of the
western Baltic Sea. Within hours up to 100 cargo vessels and ferries were beset in the approach to
Kiel Canal. To assist these vessels in distress, national ice services are often called upon to assist
their own vessels and those of other countries that become stuck in the ice. In 1997, the National
Ice Center ordered Radarsat SAR imagery to assist the Argentine icebreaker, the ALMIRANTE
IRIZAR whose progress was hindered by ice of the Weddell Sea near the Antarctic continent.

Iceberg Detection for Avoidance
The basic premise and mission of the IIP is to provide information on icebergs to protect vessels by
ensuring safety of navigation in the North Atlantic. The IIP was formed by international mandate
and is jointly funded by many countries with marine shipping interests. Specific national interest in
icebergs is more elevated in those countries whose waters are more populated by icebergs. These
countries include Canada (Baffin Bay, Newfoundland areas), Denmark (East and West Greenland
waters), Russia (Barents Sea) and the United States (IIP area and Prince William Sound, Alaska).
The increasing demand for hydrocarbons and other earth resources have stimulated interest and
activity in many of these polar seas. Icebergs of all sizes pose a hazard to shipping, oil exploration
and extraction activities. Other users of iceberg information include the international scientific
community interested in long-term climate monitoring. Rates of iceberg production and distribution
characteristics have been suggested as indicators of variations in the global climate since the polar
regions are particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change (Brown et al. 1982).

Shorefast, Lake and River Ice Break-up
Users of these data can be federal or state agencies and local communities. Break-up on most rivers
(like the Yukon River in Alaska) is monitored at the state level but is a federal responsibility
(Canadian Coast Guard) on the heavily traveled St. Lawrence River. Federal agencies (e.g. USCG)
can also become involved when navigation aides for the waterways are threatened. Fishing and
hunting expeditions by local communities need information on shorefast and lake ice break-up. The
user class in this hazard may also transition when individuals do become stranded on drifting ice.
While local governments in some northern communities (like the North Slope Bureau in Pt. Barrow,
Alaska) can provide the required coordination and resources for search and rescue efforts (ARCUS
1999), federal Search and Rescue assets are often called upon in other areas (e.g. central Canadian
Arctic).

c) End User Requirements
As previously described, the operational detection of sea ice, icebergs and river/lake ice is vital to
ensuring the safety of vessel operations and the commercial viability of the growing number of
industries with activities in the polar regions. End user requirements for ice hazard information are
quite diverse mainly due to the variability of applications. Spatial and temporal resolution of EOS
data and associated ice guidance products are important to vessels that wish to avoid or exploit the
ice. SAR imagery with its high resolution, wide swath, frequent revisit and all-weather capabilities is
now the data of choice for many ice hazard users. Ice parameters of most frequent interest to
vessels at sea include the location and size of icebergs, the location of the sea ice edge,
concentration boundaries, stage of development, floe size and location and orientation of openings
in the sea ice pack. Other developing applications require information on the extent of landfast, ice
motion, amount of sea ice pressure ridging or topography, degree of ice compaction and the stage
of decay during the summer melt season.

Generally, a ship's captain prefers to receive detailed, tactical-scale graphics or interpreted imagery
rather than raw satellite images. This preference is based on the fact that expert ice analysts are
found at the various national ice centers and generally not aboard ships. The greatest challenge to
most national ice centers is to process the EOS data, interpret it and deliver an ice hazard product to
the customer within at least 3-12 hours of acquisition. Additionally, most users desire short-term ice
forecasts detailing expected changes in the ice over the next 24-72 hours.

Specific requirements for ice hazard parameters detailing present day thresholds and future
objectives are listed in the table below.

Parameters
Threshold
Objective
Ice Edge Accuracy (absolute)
750 meters
50-100 meters
Ice Concentration Accuracy
Ice Concentration Range
< 20%
1/10 to 10/10
< 5%
0 to 100 % (includes less than
1/10th of ice)
Ice Stage of Development
(probability of typing correctly)
Ice Stage of Development
Range
70%

Distinguish new, young, first-year and multi-year ice.
90%

Distinguish 11 major gradations
as defined in WMO
nomenclature, between river,
lake and sea ice (fresh and salty
water)
Fast Ice Boundary
Forms of Floating ice
Same as for ice edge
50-100 meters
Same as for ice edge
9 gradations as defined in WMO
nomenclature
Ice Motion Accuracy
Ice Motion Range
km/day
0-50 km/day
0.05 km/day
0-50 km/day
Timeliness
3-6 hours
< 3 hours
Sampling Frequency
24 hours
6 hours
Geographic Coverage
Poleward of 34
0 north and
south of 500
south
Poleward of 340
north and south
of 50
0 south
d) Observational Requirements
For each ice hazard application, EOS data needs have been identified. These requirements are listed
in the table below.


Application Spatial
Resolutio
n
Spatial
Coverage
(swath width)
Temporal
Resolutio
n
Tasking
Time
Delivery Time
Sea and Lake Ice
Detection for Avoidance
100m
500km
daily
72-168
hours
< 3 hours
Sea and Lake Ice
Characterization for
Exploitation (safety and
mission effectiveness)
50m
300km
daily
72-168
hours
< 3 hours
Beset Vessel in Sea and
Lake Ice
30m
150km
2x/daily
24-72
hours
< 3 hours
Iceberg Detection for
Avoidance
10m
300km
daily
72-168
hours
<3 hours
Shorefast, Lake and River
Ice Break-up
30m
150km
2x/daily
24-72
hours
< 3 hours

Assessment of Current and Planned Satellite Data
Earth Observation Satellites that provide data presently being used operationally for Ice Hazard
monitoring fall into three major categories:
· Passive microwave satellites (DMSP SSM/I, OKEAN RM08) providing data used to produce
coarse resolution (15-25 km) ice concentration/ice type gridded products. The SSM/I 85
GHz channel is also used to produce ice motion and ice concentration products.
· Visible/infrared satellites (TIROS AVHRR, DMSP OLS, various GOES Imager instruments)
providing medium resolution (0.55-4.0 km) data.
· Active microwave satellites with Synthetic Aperture RADAR (SAR) instruments (RADARSAT,
ERS-2) providing all-weather, high resolution (10-100 m). Note: The OKEAN Real Aperture
Radar (RAR) provides 1.2 km spatial resolution data.
Planned or recently launched Earth Observation Satellites representing new sources of data (or
presently available data in a research or demonstration mode) that are suitable for Ice Hazard
monitoring include:
· Passive microwave satellites (DMSP SSM/IS, CORIOLIS, ADEOS-2 AMSR).
· Multi-spectral visible/infrared satellites (TERRA MODIS, ENVISAT MERIS,ADEOS-2 GLI).
· Active microwave satellites with SAR instruments (ENVISAT ASAR, RADARSAT-2 SAR,
ALOS PALSAR) and scatterometers (QuikSCAT SEAWINDS, ERS-2, METOP, ADEOS-2)
Passive Microwave Satellites
The DMSP Block 5D-3/F-15 satellite carries an improved Special Sensor Microwave Imager with
sounder (SSM/IS). As in previous instruments, SSM/IS measures radiances at 19, 22, 37 and 85
GHz. Most algorithms use the 19 and 37 GHz channels to extract ice concentration and ice type
information. The sounder should provide coincident information on attenuation due to water vapor
in atmosphere. Additionally, due to the higher spatial resolution (12.5 km) of the 85 GHz channel,
some work has demonstrated that sequential SSM/I images can be used to generate ice motion
estimates (Kwok et al 1998). The usefulness of the 85 GHz channel is limited by weather.
CORIOLIS (United States), planned for launch in 2002 by the U.S. Navy is a passive microwave
instrument with 5 bands (6.2, 10.7, 18.7, 23.8 and 37 GHz). ADEOS 2 (Japan), planned for mid-2001 launch by NASDA, will carry an Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer(AMRS), which is
expected to provide a spatial resolution of less than 5 km.

Multi-spectral Visible/Infrared Satellites
TERRA (United States), launched in December 1999 by NASA (as part of the Earth Observation
System (EOS) program), carries the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)
instrument. MODIS gathers high-quality data in 36 channels covering the visible, shortwave and
longwave infrared bands (0.4-14 um). Taking advantage of the high radiometric resolution, NASA's
MODIS Instrument Science team has developed the ICEMAP algorithm to produce an automated
daily global sea ice extent map (by swath) at a 1 km spatial resolution (Riggs et al, 1999). The
ICEMAP algorithm is based on the normalized difference between surface reflectance in the visible
band and a shortwave-infrared band. Sea ice will also be mapped using emitted longwave thermal
radiation. The Ice Surface Temperature (IST) algorithm is calculated using a split window technique
method developed with AVHRR data (Key et al, 1997). Daytime gridded sea ice products will be
produced using the ICEMAP/IST techniques while night-time products will be produced using only
the IST technique. Data are presently being produced in the research mode with plans for
operational use by national ice centers in late 2000/early 2001.

ADEOS-2 (Japan), planned for a mid-2001 launch by NASDA, will carry a multi-spectral Global
Imager (GLI) instrument. The GLI, like MODIS, will have 36 channels that can be exploited to
produce an automated sea ice product. ENVISAT is planned for a fall 2001 launch date by ESA
and will carry a multi-spectral MERIS instrument.

Active Microwave Satellites
a) Synthetic Aperture Radar Satellites
· ENVISAT (Europe), planned for end-2001 launch by ESA, will carry an Advanced Synthetic
Aperture Radar (ASAR) instrument. ASAR is a C-band, dual polarized instrument with beam
steering (15-45
0 incidence angle) that allows collection of data in several different modes. Data
collected in the standard mode will have a 100 km swath and 30 m spatial resolution, while the
wide mode will have a swath of 405 km and 100 m spatial resolution. The latter mode is ideal
for sea ice monitoring. It is also believed that alternating polarization will give improved ice
edge/water discrimination over earlier single polarization SAR's (ERS-1/2 VV polarization;
Radarsat-1 HH polarization). Cross polarization data are expected to be particularly useful in
estimating topography and ice type discrimination (ESA, 1998).
· RADARSAT-2 (Canada), planned for mid-2003 launch by CSA, will carry an advanced C-band
SAR characterized by quad polarization, beam steering in right and left directions, an increased
downlink capability and a fine resolution (3 meter) mode in addition to all the same operating
modes as Radarsat-1.
· ALOS (Japan), planned for a mid-2003 launch by NASDA, will carry a Phased Array type L-band SAR (PALSAR) with a cross-track pointing capability from 18-55
0 incidence angle and a
ScanSAR mode with a 350 km swath and 100 m spatial resolution. ALOS will depend on two
Data Relay Transmission Satellites (DRTS) and X-band downlink to ground stations for real-time
data delivery to operational users.

b) Scatterometer Satellites
· QuikSCAT (United States), launched in June of 1999 by NASA, carries the SEAWINDS
scatterometer. SEAWINDS is a specialized Ku band (13.4 GHZ) microwave radar that was
designed to measure ocean-surface winds but can also be used to monitor ice over its 1,800 km
swath. Using data from the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) mission, Long and Drinkwater
(1999) have demonstrated that ice images with spatial resolutions of 8-10 km can be created
using the Scatterometer Image Reconstruction with Filtering (SIRF) algorithm. Although the
nominal resolution of the QuikSCAT SEAWINDS sensor is 30x50 km it is believed that similar
resolution images can be created from QuikSCAT data.
· ERS-2 (Europe), launched in 1995 by ESA, carries a C-band scatterometer that can be exploited
to map sea ice. Research and development by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute for the
proposed EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Application Facility (O&SI SAF) is using the ERS-2
scatterometer data to map sea ice on a demonstration basis (Breivik et al, 1999). These data are
combined with AVHRR and SSM/I data to produce ice maps with 10 km spatial resolution.
METOP (Europe), planned for launch in 2003, will carry a C-band Advanced Scatterometer
(ASCAT).
· ADEOS-2 (Japan), planned for a mid-2001 launch by NASDA, will carry SEAWINDS-2, a Ku
band scatterometer that also can be used to generate ice all-weather, moderate resolution ice
images. Like QuikSCAT, these data would serve as complimentary data sets to the coarser
resolution passive microwave and high resolution SAR data to produce more accurate global-
scale ice maps ideal for mission planning and climate research.

Future Improvements to Consider
As previously described, EOS data play an important and critical role in the mature application of
operational sea ice mapping. The role of EOS data in iceberg detection and monitoring remains in
the research and evaluation phase. Possible areas for improvement in sea ice mapping can be
divided into four categories: methodology, science, technology and data/product management.

Methodology:
· International Collaboration: While the WMO/IOC Joint Technical Commission on
Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) has a Sea Ice Expert Panel that provides
good international collaboration on standards for sea ice services, there is a need for increased
cooperation with other national ice services on a more operational basis. The International Ice
Chart Working Group (IICWG) was formed for this purpose and had its 1st meeting in October
1999 in Copenhagen, Denmark, and continues to meet annually. This group will focus on
improving the exchange of satellite data and products and initiating cooperative training
activities. On a regional basis these activities have existed such as the Baltic Sea Ice Meeting
(BSIM) since 1925 and the Joint Ice Working Group (U.S./Canada) since 1986.
· Access to EOS Data: New and updated mechanisms to improve access to satellite data should
include satellite acquisition tools (and policies) that shorten time to schedule satellite acquisition
of data and a shorter payload planning process for future satellites.
· Data Fusion Techniques: Recent studies indicate that substantial improvements in the quality of
ice information derived from algorithms using EOS data can be achieved by using ancillary data
and data fusion techniques. For example, Steffen (et. al., 1992b) stated that data assimilation
and artificial intelligence (AI) methods offer the greatest promise for resolving ambiguities in
passive microwave ice algorithms.
· Standard Product Formats: All national ice centers should produce standard digital formatted
products (ice analysis graphics; annotated (interpreted) imagery and ice forecasts) that are user-
friendly and GIS-compatible. This standardization effort should be directed at operational
customers and separate from WMO-approved data archival formats (SIGRID-1/2). FGDC SDTS
and IHO S-57 formats show promise but have gained little acceptance by the user community.
Additionally, common digital coastlines are important for seamless exchange of information
between national ice centers.

Science:
· EOS Data Algorithms: New or improved sea ice/iceberg detection and sea ice classification
algorithms are needed. Possibilities include developing an "expert" or AI system that classifies
SAR data into ice types, SSM/I hybrid algorithms that account for natural variations in brightness
temperatures associated with regional inhomogeneities of sea ice, SSM/I 85 GHz ice motion
products, an ice/no ice cloud-masked visible/infrared product and a SAR-based iceberg detection
algorithm.
· Ice Forecasting Models: Develop and implement regional (higher resolution) coupled
ice/ocean/atmosphere forecasting models to improve sea ice forecasts in the Marginal Ice Zone
(MIZ) and iceberg drift and ablation rates.

Technology:
· New and Improved Satellite Sensors: Use data from new sensors, such as multi-spectral
radiometers and scatterometers. Improve ice mapping capabilities by taking advantage of
improved sensors like SAR instruments with dual/quad polarization.
· Satellites with Multiple Instrument Payloads: Improve ice mapping capabilities through use of
simultaneous data collection (for example, ENVISAT ASAR and MERIS; ALOS AVNIR-2 and
PALSAR; satellite with multiple frequency SAR (L-, C- and X- bands).
· Satellite Revisit Time: Design right/left looking beam steering capability and optimum orbits to
maximize revisit time and geographic coverage in ice-covered seas.
· Temporal Resolution of EOS Data: Improve delivery of processed imagery by requiring
minimum real-time data processing and throughput standards at all participating ground
stations. Consider use of onboard satellite data processors.
· Electronic Charts: Improve utility of ice information by producing ice analyses in electronic chart
formats that can be integrated into ship chart display systems. The development and approval
of international formats for display and distribution of the ice information to ECDIS will
significantly increase safety of ice navigation.

Data/Product Management:
· Special EOS Data Policy: Request EOS data providers implement special data policies that allow
for preferred and affordable access for national ice services and the production of ice hazard
products.
· Outreach Programs: Establish outreach programs to educate customers on EOS data types,
products available and the potential uses of each. Communicate to end-users the strengths and
weaknesses of EOS data and ice guidance products.
· New and Improved Ice Guidance Products: Survey customer requirements to develop and
implement new ice hazard products such as maps indicating state of ice decay and color-coded
ice warning charts based on ship classes.
· Data/Product Dissemination: Improve efficiency of data networks through the use of state-of-
the-art compression software.

The ice services are extremely dependent on the ground segment provided by satellite operators and
receiving stations - e.g. the distribution of receiving stations. Likewise, affordable data continuity
(e.g. SAR) is very important. Any gaps in the data between successive launches of SAR satellites
could reduce the capability of many ice services.

Summary and Conclusions
It is well known that sea ice and icebergs pose a serious hazard to shipping and other maritime
activities. The role of EOS data in operational ice monitoring is well documented and has grown in
importance over the years. EOS data from visible/infrared sensors are readily available to all ice
services but are useful only under cloud-free conditions. Passive microwave sensors can penetrate
cloud cover but their effectiveness in ice monitoring is limited by coarse resolution. Active
microwave sensors such as SAR's are ideal for ice mapping because of their high resolution, all-
weather, wide swath ice detection capability. Investigations have also shown that these data are also
valuable in their ability to quantify other ice parameters such as ice type (stage of development), ice
topography and presence of open water or thin ice openings within the sea ice pack. Sea ice
guidance products derived in real-time from these data are used operationally to ensure safety of
navigation of non-ice strengthened vessels, maximize time and fuel savings of icebreaker lead
convoys and to protect life and property associated with human activities on the ice.

In the future, new and updated EOS sensors provide great promise for improving the applications of
sea ice mapping and iceberg detection. Data from multi-spectral visible/infrared radiometers and
scatterometers will be used to generate automated sea ice maps. SAR satellites with right/left looking
beam steering, multiple polarization modes and enhanced downlink capabilities will provide more
valuable data in a shorter period of time to the end user. The coincident collection of EOS data from
multiple instruments "fused" with ancillary environmental data can be used to resolve ambiguities
and eliminate biases in conventional, single sensor algorithms. Data policies must exist for easy and
rapid access to EOS data for ice hazard detection and monitoring. Lastly, collaborative efforts are
needed between all the national ice services to ensure that EOS data are shared, that ice products
are issued in standard formats and most importantly that customers are educated on the strengths,
weaknesses and value of EOS data and Ice Hazard products.

Proposed Sea Ice Hazard Emergency Scenario

The trigger for a request for assistance would be:
2) A threat to the environment due to a hazardous or contaminant spill in ice covered areas

Obtain background information
Considered
1.

2.

3.

4.

4.
Location of nearby population centers, camps, vessels and other assets
Navigation, geological or other charts/maps of the area

Ice, Meteorological and Oceanographic Climatology of the Area

Availability of information from responsible national ice service(s)

1.
Current Ice Analysis for Concentration and Stage of Development
Current Ice Analysis for Navigable Features or Impediments to Navigation

Current Ice Analysis for generating a route recommendation or location for search
and rescue access and egress

4.

5.

6.
1) A threat to life, safety and property at sea due to a vessel being beset or incapacitated in sea or
lake ice; or people being stranded or incapacitated on the ice for any reason.
Check if
Location of the incident (latitude, longitude)
Date and Time of the incident
Responsible
Search
and Rescue Agency (s)
Contact information for all involved agencies (RCC, support agencies, on-scene
commander, etc.)

5.
6.
7.
Obtain ice information relevant to extraction or search and rescue

2.
3.
Current Meteorological Conditions. Especially current and forecast surface winds.
Current Oceanographic Conditions. Especially Sea Surface Temperature and
Currents.
Forecast ice conditions (chart or text) if available

* Current Ice Analyses done using available radar, visual and infrared imagery of
the target area.

Priorities for image planning
1.
RADARSAT Beam mode ScanSAR Wide is optimal for broad area Ice
analysis and for access and egress or operations context.
RADARSAT Beam mode Standard is useful for Feature Analysis.
RADARSAT Beam mode Fine is useful for high resolution targeting.

2.
ENVISAT Beam mode Wide Swath is optimal for Ice Analysis.
ENVISAT Beam mode Image Mode is optimal for site specific Feature
Analysis.
ENVISAT Beam mode Wave Mode is optimal for high resolution
targeting.

3. ERS

4.
DMSP Operational Line Scan (OLS) Visible and Infrared
5.
NOAA TIROS AVHRR LAC or HRPT Visible and Infrared

Value added processing of imagery or data?

1) Ice Analysis: Ice Concentration; Ice Stages of Development; Partial Concentration of Stages of
Development; and Floe Sizes
2) Special Ice Features: Leads in Ice; Fractures in Ice; Heavy Ridging in Ice; Ice Edge
3) Track Recommendation or Largest Floes in the Area and Their Size
4) Ice Motion: General direction and speed of ice motion, if applicable; measured speed and
direction of individual floe motion (from time series images)
5) Feature labeling: North arrow on imagery; Latitude/Longitude Grid; Image type, Date and
Resolution; Major Land Features

Data delivery mechanism

Project Manager to ask users what will work. If possible, Internet transfer of Mr. Sid compressed
images and other products directly to a vessel are preferable. Alternatively, facsimile transmission of
chart and text products via telephone or marine radio is possible in some cases. Should ensure that
all appropriate locations are copied including the Rescue Coordination Center, the local on-scene
commander and other supporting agencies as appropriate. It is important that everyone involved in
the operation have the same set of information.

ICE
HAZARD
TEAM
PARTICIPANTS

1.
CDR Zdenka Willis, Co-team leader
National Ice Center (USA)
2.
Bruce Ramsay, Co-team leader

Canadian Ice Service (Canada)

With important contributions by the International Ice Chart Working Group (IICWG)

NATIONAL
ICE
SERVICES

Argentina
Servicio Meteorológico de la Armada Argentina.
Glaciología.
Edificio Libertad
Comodoro Py 2055, 15-37
1104 BUENOS AIRES
telefax: +54 11 43172309
e-mail: cnhsmara%40rina.ara.mil.ar
Central Meterológica Naval Río Grande
Base Aeronaval
9420 RIO GRANDE. Tierra de Fuego telefax: +54
2 0964 433092
e-mail: meteogra%40infovia.com.ar

Australia
Bureau of Meteorology Tasmania/Antarctica
Region
GPO Box 727G, Hobart 7 001
telephone: +61 3 6221 2021
Telefax: +61 3 6221 2080

Canada
Canadian Ice Service ­ Environment Canada
373 Sussex Drive, Block E - 3rd floor
Ottawa, Ontario

Canada K1A 0H3
telephone: (613) 996-1550 or toll-free in North
America (800) 767-2885
telefax: (613) 947-9160
e-mail: cis.client%40ec.gc.ca
Internet: http://www.cis.ec.gc.ca

China
National Marine Environment Forecast Center, 8,
Dahuisi Rd., Haidian District
Beijing, 100081, China

Qingdao Marine Forecasting Observatory of SOA
22 Fushun Road,
Qingdao, 266033, China

Group of Sea Ice Management
C/o General Dispatch Office
China Offshore Oil Bohai Corporation
P.O. Box 501 Tanggu
Tianjin 300452 China




Denmark
Søværnets Operative Kommando
Istjenesten
Postboks 483
DK-8100 Århus C DENMARK
telephone: +45 89 43 30 99,
+45 89 43 32 53 (Ice-Breaking Service and Ice-
reporting Service)
telefax: +45 89 43 32 30
telephone answering unit: + 45 89 32 44.
telex: 64527 SHIPPOS DK
e-mail: bk4%40sok.dk (Attention.: Danish Ice
Service)

Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
Lyngbyvej 100
DK-2100 Copenhagen DENMARK
Iscentralen Narsarsuaq
3923 Narsarsuaq

Greenland
http://www.dmi.dk (DMI main page)
http://www.dmi.dk/vejr/gron/iskort.html
Internet:
http://iserit.greennet.gl/isc/ice/ e-mail: isc%40greennet.gl

Estonia
Estonian Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
EMHI
Rävala 8
EE - 0001 Tallin, Estonia
telephone +372 6461561
telefax +372 6461577
e-mail: emhi%40online.ee

Finland
Finnish Institute of Marine Research
Finnish ice service
P.O. Box 304
FIN-00181 HELSINKI, FINLAND
telephone: +358 9 6857659
telefax: +358 9 6857638 or 6857639
e-mail: info%40ice.fmi.fi
Internet: http://ice.fmi.fi
Germany
BSH ­ Eisdienst
Postfach 301220
D-20305 Hamburg, Germany
telephone: +49 40 3190 3290
telefax: +49 40 3190 5032
e-mail: ice%40bsh.d400.de
Internet: http://www.bsh.de/
Oceanography/Ice/Ice.htm (in German/English)

Iceland
Icelandic Meteorological Office
Bustadavegur 9
IS-150 Reykjavik, Iceland
telephone: +354 522 6000
telefax: +354 522 6001
http://www.vedur.is

Japan
Maritime Meteorological Division
Climate and Marine Department
Japan Meteorological Agency
1-3-4 Ote-machi, Chiyoda-ku
Tokyo 100-8122, Japan
http://www.kishou.go.jp/
http://www.jodc.jhd.go.jp/inf/institute/jma/jma.h
tml (In English)

Latvia
Latvian Hydrometeorological Agency
165, Maskavas Str.
LV- 1019 Riga, Latvia

Lithuania
CMR
Taikos str. 26, 5802 Klaipeda,
Lithuania
tel. (+ 3706) 250324
fax (+ 3706) 250930
CMR%40klaipeda.omnitel.net.

LHMS Klaipeda Department
Taikos str.26, 5802 Klaipeda
telephone (+ 3706) 252247;
telefax (+ 3706)2 52247;
e-mail. khmo%40klaipeda.aiva.lt

Netherlands
Rijkswaterstaat / Riza
Information and Warning Centre
Postbox 17
8200 AA Lelystad NETHERLANDS
telephone: +31 320 298550, +31 320 298888
telefax: +31 320 298580
e-mail bc%40riza.rws.minvenw.nl

Norway
Vervarslinga for Nord-Norge
Postboks 2501
9002 Tromsoe, Norway
telephone: +47 77 68 40 44
telefax: +47 77 68 90 04
Internet: http://www.dnmi.no
Poland
Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej,
Oddzial Morski
Waszyngtona 42,
PL 81-342 GDYNIA, Poland
telephone: +48 58 6205221 (operator), +48 58
6201641 (ice team 06-14Z)
telefax: +48 58 6205493
e-mail: pga%40stratus.imgw.gdynia.pl
Internet: http://www.imgw.gdynia.pl/

Russia
Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute
38 Bering Street
St.Petersburg, Russia, 199397
telephone.:+7(812)352-1520
telefax: +7(812)352-2688
e-mail: service%40aari.nw.ru
Internet:
http://www.aari.nw.ru

Internet: ftp://aari.nw.ru

Sweden
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute,
SMHI.
Marine Service
S - 601 76 Norrkoping Sweden
telephone: +46 (0)11 495 8400
telefax: +46 (0)11 495 8403
e-mail: ice%40smhi.se
Internet:
http://www.smhi.se (main web-page)
Internet: ftp://ftp.smhi.se (ftp-server)
United States
Director
National Ice Center
4251 Suitland Road, FB4
Washington, DC 20395
ph. (301) 457-5303/-5300 (Fax)
e-mail: liaison%40natice.noaa.gov
http://natice.noaa.gov

Commander
International Ice Patrol
1082 Shennecossett Road
Groton, CT 06340-6095
ph. (860) 441-2626/-2773 (Fax)
http://www.uscg.mil/lantarea/iip/home.html

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LANDSLIDE HAZARDS
CEOS DISASTER
MANAGEMENT
SUPPORT
GROUP ______________________________________________________________________________

PURPOSE

This report is a summary of current and potential uses of EO data applied to the assessment of
landslides. Our main objective is to assess the role of EO data by improving our understanding of
the causes of ground failure and suggesting mitigation strategies.

This brief working paper represents
the combined efforts of the landslide team listed below. This report is listed at
(http://disaster.ceos.org/landslide.htm) to invite additional comments from the disaster management
communities. Relevant background information is included to inform a very diverse disaster
management community.

Summary Landslide Recommendations to the Space Agencies:
1. The future availability of space borne InSAR data for slope motion monitoring is not yet
clear. The European ERS SAR is a useful system for repeat-pass SAR interferometry because of
the high stability of the sensor, good orbit maintenance and the fixed operation mode. Other
orbital SAR systems needed to provide similar orbit parameters of less than +/- 1km. The
European follow-on sensor ASAR on board the ENVISAT, as well as other planned SARs,
provide many different operation modes, which will reduce the availability of repeat pass
interferometric data. On the other hand, the higher spatial resolution of some of these sensors
would be of interest for mapping also small slides. The important contributions of InSAR to
landslide hazard management and to a range of other environmental monitoring tasks would
justify a long-term SAR mission optimized for InSAR applications.

2. There is a requirement for Space agencies to provide archival background SAR images for all
future SAR systems to perform repeat pass InSAR analysis to monitor very slow movements of
slopes and other areas.

3. A guideline for landslide hazard emergency response scenario is presented at the end of the
Landslide report (section 7). This will facilitate the space agencies to acquire appropriate data to
meet the timely delivery of image maps to relief agencies. An internet image distribution system
will facilitate emergency response in affected areas

Landslide Team Accomplishments: (2000-2001)
1. The Landslide Hazard team concentrate its efforts on 3 test areas: Fraser Valley Landslides,
Canadian Cordillera; The Corniglio Landslide, Northern Apennines, Italy;Itaya Landslide, Japan.
The choice of the sites is based on (1) geological diversity;(2) the types of landslides, (3) current
threat to populated areas and infrastructure, and (4) existing work conducted by
the current Landslide team.

2. Earthquakes, excessive rainfall, and volcanic events are the triggers of the landslides, and this
allows the CEOS landslide team to work closely with the other working groups on earthquake,
volcanic and flood hazards. Because of this, the Landslide team is participating actively in the
development of the IGOS Partners Geohazards Theme.

3. The Landslide Hazard team is producing a special issue Journal issue in "Engineering Geology":
for May 2002. This special issue is the result of a special session on "EO application to
Landslides" at the European Geophysical Congress in Nice, May 2001.

Background
The term landslide denotes "the movement of a mass of rock, debris or earth down the slope". In
addition to this definition it can be stated that the movement occurs when the shear stress exceeds
the shear strength of the material. The analysis of a possible increase of the shear stress and/or
decrease of the shear strength of the material is integral to fully understanding landslide mechanics
and applying the most appropriate remedial measures.

The factors contributing to an increase of the shear stress include:
· removal of lateral and underlying support (erosion, previous slides, road cuts and quarries)
· increase of load (weight of rain/snow/ash, fills, vegetation)
· increase of lateral pressures (hydraulic pressures, roots, crystallization, swelling of clay)
· transitory stresses (earthquakes, vibrations of trucks, machinery, blasting)
· regional tilting (geological movements)

Factors related to the decrease of the material strength include:
· decrease of material strength (weathering, change in state of consistency )
· changes in intergranular forces (pore water pressure, solution, fracture and crack propogation)
· changes in structure (decrease strength in failure plane, fracturing due to unloading)

Globally, landslides cause approximately 1000 deaths per year, causing property damage of
approximately US $4 billion

(Alexander,1995). Landslides pose serious threats to settlements, and
structures that support transportation, natural resources management and tourism. They cause
considerable damage to highways, railways, waterways and pipelines. They commonly occur with
other major natural disasters such as earthquakes (Keefer, 1984), volcanic activity (Kimura and
Yamaguchi 2000), and floods caused by heavy rainfall. Each type of earthquake-induced landslide
occurs in various geological environments, ranging from steep rock slopes to gentle slopes with
unconsolidated sediments. The area affected by landslide in an earthquake correlates with the
magnitude, geological conditions, earthquake focal depth, and specific ground motion characteristics
(Keefer 1984, 1994). Damage from landslides and other ground failures have sometimes exceeded
damage directly related to earthquakes. In many cases, expanded development and human
activities, such as modified slopes and deforestation, can increase the incidence of landslide
disasters. Recent development in large metropolitan areas intrudes upon unstable terrain. This has
thrown many urban communities into disarray, providing grim examples of the extreme disruption
caused by ground failures.

Landslides can be rapid or slow, and occur in a wide variety of geologic environments, including
underwater. The secondary effects of landslides can also be very destructive. Waves generated by
landslides entering rivers, lakes or other bodies of water have caused substantial damage.2 Other
2 Lituya Bay, Alaska, July 10, 1958 a Magnitude 8 earthquake triggered a landslide that caused a water splash wave
that reached 1,720 feet up the mountain slope (ref: See Steinbrugge, K.V. in References at the end of this Team
report); and Vaoint Reservoir, Italy, October 9, 1963 a massive landslide caused a tremendous water wave that
swept 300 feet above and over both dam abutments, causing a major flood that killed an estimated 2,600 people (ref:
See Kierch, G. A. in References at the end of this Team report).
secondary effects include upstream and downstream flooding due to landslide dams and dam
breaks. (Evans and Savigny, 1994).

Types of Landslides
In general, there are many landslide classifications, but no single classification has universal
application. Six distinct types of landslide movements are briefly described:

· A fall or rockfall comprises a detachment of soil or rock from a steep slope and the more or less
free and extremely rapid descent of the material. Rockfalls usually occur where a steep rock face
is well-jointed. The rockmass disintegrates into numerous blocks that fall, bounce, and roll after
detachment. Rockfalls are a constant problem along transportation routes through rocky terrain.
· A topple is a forward rotation out of the slope of a mass of soil or rock about a point below the
centre of gravity of the displaced mass.
· A landslide, in the restricted sense of the word, is a generally rapid to very rapid downslope
movement of soil or rock bounded by a more or less discrete failure surface, which defines the
sliding mass. An essential element of sliding is that the movement takes place as a unit portion of
land, which implies that there are no movements within the slipped block (the internal
movements). Sliding in rock and soil may occur along a curved, curvilinear, or a multi-planar
surface and is usually retrogressive. Landslides are usually slow moving, but can damage or
destroy structures founded on the moving mass. The term rockslide is used when a rock mass
slides on a detachment surface. The term landslide most used by non­specialists usually refers to
slow moving materials that can damage or destroy structures founded on the moving mass
· Sagging is defined as large-scale deep seated deformations that are under the influence of
gravity and occur in competent rocks and in zones where erosion has created deep valleys and
therefore an unstable situation.
· Spread is defined here as an extension of a cohesive soil or rock mass combined with a general
subsidence of the broken mass of cohesive material into softer underlying materials
· A variety of flows exist and they grade into all other types of slope movements. For example,
debris flows can be generated from debris slides or by extreme forms of stream flow erosion.
Debris flows are smaller and less rapid than rockfalls but can be very destructive. They occur
when a saturated mass of surficial deposits moves down a stream channel, and are characterized
by significant relief and sharp, well-defined flow boundaries. Heavy rains often trigger initial
failure. They can also occur following the bursting of a natural dam formed by landslide debris,
glacial moraines, or glacier ice.

EO data uses for landslides
The use of EO data is discussed as follows: mapping landslide related factors; characterization of
landslide deposits monitoring; preparedness (monitoring and mitigation); response; research
challenges and CEOS demonstration sites. This report also includes the uses of synthetic aperture
radar (SAR) and interferometric SAR (InSAR), high spatial-resolution multispectral (IKONOS), and
multispectral (Landsat, SPOT, IRS) data for landslide studies. Future satellites, such as the European
follow-on sensor ASAR on board of ENVISAT, the Canadian RADARSAT-2 and the Japanese
ALOS are also discussed.

Mapping landslide related factors
The main contribution of EO data is to provide the morphological, land use, and geological detail to
assist in determining how the landslide failed and what caused the failure. Where failure could occur
can be addressed in a more regional geographic information system (GIS) analysis as a necessary
first step in risk analysis. This is because the factors contributing to slope failure at a specific site are
generally complex and difficult to assess with confidence.

GIS techniques are used increasingly for regional analysis and prediction. Several digital data sets
are typically used for such analysis. These can include an inventory of landslides; seismic records;
large-scale geological mapping; extensive geotechnical data on rock properties; high-resolution
digital elevation data, and suitable high-resolution remote sensing data and aerial photographs. This
mapping procedure can be used to produce hazard risk maps that will assist in emergency
preparedness planning and in making rational decisions regarding development and construction in
areas susceptible to slope failure. Landslide risk studies are still not very common. This is mainly due
to the fact that it is very difficult to represent landslide hazard in quantitative terms related to
probability over large areas. This is because landslides do not have a clear magnitude/frequency
relation, as is the case for floods or earthquakes. Lithologic and vegetation/landuse mapping use
Landsat TM and SPOT and IRS and IKONOS images.

Detailed slope information is essential for reliable landslide inventory maps. Currently, topographic
maps and digital elevation data are used. Slope affects surface drainage and is an important factor in
the stability of the land surface. Current research has shown that airborne and satellite InSAR
techniques are being used to produce detailed slope information ( Singhroy et al 1998, Singhroy
and Mattar 2000, Kimura and Yamaguchi 2000) This allows a more accurate interpretation of slope
morphology and regional fracture systems with topographic expressions. However, further research
is needed in updating local slope information from suitable InSAR pairs using ERS1& 2 tandem,
JERS-1 and RADARSAT-1. The large archive of SRTM data will assist in providing regional slope
maps.

Characterization of landslide deposits
Two distinct approaches can be used to determine the characteristics of different landslides from
remotely sensed data. The first approach is to determine the number, distribution, type, character,
and superposition relations of landslides using available remotely sensed data. The second
approach complements the first one by measuring dimensions (length, width, thicknesses and local
slope) along and across the landslides using imagery and topographic profiles (e.g. laser altimeter
profiles). Where possible these dimensional data should be compared to any previous studies. With
these approaches, it is possible to derive qualitative and quantitative parameters on landslides that
are necessary for improved understanding of landslide processes.

Distribution and superposition (Approach 1)
There remain significant limitations on the uses of remotely sensed EO data for landslide studies.
The majority of landslide research carried out by remote sensing to date falls into the category of
inventory mapping. The principle problem is that remote sensing data rarely had a high spatial
resolution to be useful in the study of anything but the largest landslides. However, both space-and-
airborne remote sensing systems now have resolutions that permit detailed geomorphologic
mapping to be conducted. With the advent of repeat-pass interferometry ( see section 3.2.2) it has
become possible to detect subtle changes (at mm scales) in the landscape such as seismic
displacement (e.g. Massonnett et al., 1993). However, landslides are difficult to study using radar
interferometry (e.g. Fruneau et al., 1996) because they can experience ground deformations in
excess of the phase gradient limit (Carnec et al., 1996) and which eliminate interferometric
correlation (Massonnet and Feigl, 1998). Attempts are being made to better integrate radar
interferograms, field measurements, and ancillary remote sensing of landslides to obtain "calibrated"
interferograms which will provide useful geologic and geophysical information to the landslide
monitoring community (e.g. Bulmer et al., 2001). However, even such improved technologies are,
however, rarely utilized to their full potential in hazard assessment.

Data from both the visible (Brunsden et al., 1975; Doornkamp et al., 1979) and microwave (e.g.
Singhroy et al., 1998; Bulmer and Wilson, 1999) portions of the electromagnetic spectrum can be
used to map the geomorphology of landslides. The application of photogeologic mapping
techniques (Varnes, 1974) provide a framework for developing mapping strategies will assist in the
interpretation of these differing data. Geological units can be defined on the basis of morphological,
textural, and structural characteristics visible in the images and related to the existing geologic maps.

Where possible, the highest resolution data that is available should be obtained and used to identify
a range of geomorphic features and dimensional data on landslides of interest. Tables 1 and 2
provide guidelines for discerning these features in EO data.

Location
L m W m T m A km
2
V km
3 H
m H/L
Headscarp

Upper
track

Middle
track

Lower
track

Depositional
zone

Table 1. Dimensional data to be obtained on landslides using remotely senses data L = length, W =
width (min, max), T = thickness,
= slope, V = volume, H = height from the top of the adjacent
scarp to the base of the slope of the landslide, H/L = average friction coefficient given by the tangent
of the line connecting the top of the scarp and the toe of the deposit (see Cruden, 1980; Shaller,
1991). In the absence of any high-resolution topographic information a first order volume can be
estimated using the aerial extent and an estimated thickness.

Features
L m W m T m A km
2
V km
3 H
m H/L
Tension
cracks

Ridges

Levees

Overtopping

Superelevation

Material
sizes

Material
type

Table 2. Additional geomorphic parameters to be obtained on landslides using remotely sensed
data. Note that determinations of velocity based on climbed and/or overtopped obstacles only give
an estimate for one short segment. It assumes conservation of energy for the material that climbed
the obstacle, with the energy required to overcome gravity originating in the kinetic energy of the
landslide (Shreve, 1966). Estimates of mean velocity can be made by calculating the tilt of the flow
surface and the radius of curvature of the flow bend in a channel (Johnson, 1984).

When selecting and using remotely sensed data the goal should be to determine: 1) the local
lithology, 2) aerial extent of landslide deposits at each site, 3) local age relationships, 4) examine
evidence for the cause and frequency of emplacement, 5) look for differences in landslide
morphologies as keys to the magnitude and types of mass movement events, and 6) measure
dimensions, slopes (local and regional), volumes, and material sizes.

Surface topography studies (Approach 2)
Landslide surface structures and roughness provide information on flow emplacement parameters
(such as emplacement rate, velocity, and rheology). Using parallax equations measurements of the
heights of surface structures can be made from stereo aerial photographs (Lillesand and Kiefer,
1987) and radar images (Plaut, 1993). Features such as the peak and the trough of folds on
landslides can be measured and fold amplitude calculated. In addition, data from newly developing
laser altimeter instruments can be used to measure features of landslides such as ridge wavelengths
and amplitudes, thickness variations in debris aprons as well as local, regional and underlying slope.
Laser altimeters tend to have vertical and radial accuracy of <1 m (e.g. Krabill et al., 2000). The
spacing between pulses along each orbital track or flight line varies depending on the instrument, but
is typically 5 m. Across-track spacing depends on the number of available orbits or flight lines.
Thus, the inter-track spacing will decrease as more data is obtained. Using laser altimeters it is also
possible to calculate surface roughness in two ways: large-scale slopes directly from the topography
(Aharonson et al., 2001), and sub-footprint scale slopes from data on the returned laser pulse width
(Garvin and Frawley, 2000; Smith et al., 2001). Roughness is defined as the topographic
expression of surfaces at horizontal scales of centimeters to a few hundred meters. Individual
topographic profiles from laser altimeters can be used to construct plots of the Allan variance or
structure function, versus horizontal step size. A self-affine, or fractal surface, is characterized by a
power-law scaling between these parameters (Shepard et al., 1995). For a two-dimensional profile,
the Hurst H exponent is related to the fractal dimension D as D=2-H. Surfaces with low values of H
roughen more slowly with increasing horizontal scale, while surfaces with high H have vertical
roughness that increases rapidly with step size. For different landslides the Hurst exponent and the
value of the Allan deviation at unit length (equivalent to the RMS slope at unit scale), can be
compared with those measured for other geologic surfaces (e.g. Campbell and Shepard, 1996;
Bulmer et al., 2001). This examination of the statistical roughness of geologic surfaces can be used
to greatly improve in the interpretation of remotely sensed data at all wavelengths.

Surface roughness affects the behavior of scattered microwaves. Because the roughness of
landslides has not been studied in detail, a quantitative comparison with other geologic surfaces
such as lava textures has not been possible. Studies of roughness have mainly focused on basaltic
pahoehoe and a'a lava surfaces (e.g. Campbell and Shepard, 1996). Only recently has roughness
data and radar backscatter (
0) for blocky silicic lava flows and a rock avalanche been computed
(Bulmer and Campbell, 1999; Bulmer et al., 2001). The lack of detailed topographic data for
blocky landslides and lava flows has also meant that the link between their roughness and radar
backscatter (
0) has remained elusive. This has resulted in difficulties in using radar data to
distinguish between rock avalanches and lava flows (e.g. Bulmer and Wilson, 1999). At C-band
wavelengths (ERS and Radarsat) it is not possible to discriminate between a'a lava textures and
blocky lava flows or a rock avalanche based upon
0
values alone. Geomorphic features such as
blocky landslides will only be identified in longer wavelength data or through morphological
signatures.

Preparedness (Monitoring Warning, Prediction)
Disaster preparedness involves temporal prediction and warning, and monitoring once a landslide is
taking place. Monitoring landslides can either be done from in-situ measurements, with the help of
EO data, or a combination of the two. Challenging components of monitoring landslides include
characterizing the time of a landslide occurrence, its velocity and its acceleration. These parameters
may be quantified by real-time, in-situ monitoring systems, and with EO InSAR data.

In-situ monitoring systems
A real-time monitoring system using instruments selected according to the characteristics of the soil
mass, and placed where the earliest movement is estimated to occur, may represent a powerful tool
to produce both local and remote alerts (e.g. Angeli et al., 1994) An efficient monitoring system
must ensure safe conditions for the operators and provide the greatest amount of data on the
dynamics of the sliding mass.

An example of a real-time monitoring system is the "Early warning monitoring system", developed
by Aquater, Italy. This monitoring system uses National Instrument LabView software and an
analogue/digital (A/D) converter with an internal processor to collect data from a laser diastimeter,
seismic detectors (geophones), pressure transducer, and rainfall meter. Alerts are automatically
activated when a sensor measures variations, which exceed the fixed threshold limits.

The data that the "Early warning monitoring system" collects from the instrumented landslide
include
· relative movements recorded by a laser diastimeter
· vibrations (intensity and frequency) from geophones
· groundwater pressures changes recorded from pressure transducers
· rainfall (as total amount and intensity) recorded by rainfall meters

In the case of a landslide occurrence, both local and remote warning signals are activated by the
system at the same time allowing emergency measures to be taken. Local alarms may consist of
lights and sirens; operators can be alerted directly from the local monitoring station modem; and a
web site can display real-time data.

InSAR
Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) can be applied for measuring displacements at the
Earth's surface with very high accuracy and for topographic mapping. Both capabilities are of high
relevance for landslide hazard assessment. Possibilities and constraints of spaceborne SAR for these
applications are briefly reviewed.

In a SAR image the location of a target is represented in a two-dimensional coordinate system, with
one axis in flight direction (along-track) and the other axis cross-track (slant range), in which the
target position (distance) is measured by the round trip travel time from the SAR antenna to the
target and back. Because the across-track position represents a range measurement, the SAR image
is distorted in this direction. Steep slopes facing in direction of the antenna appear shortened or are
affected by layover, which often inhibits the interferometric analysis on these slopes.

An interferometric image represents the phase difference between the reflected signal in two SAR
images obtained from similar positions in space (Hanssen, 2001; Massonet and Feigl, 1998; Rosen
et al., 2000). In case of spaceborne SAR the images are acquired from repeat pass orbits. For the
European ERS, for example, the standard orbital repeat interval is 35 days, for the Canadian
Radarsat it is 24 days. The phase differences between two repeat-pass images result from
topography and from changes in the line-of-sight distance (range) to the radar due to displacement
of the surface or change in the atmospheric propagation path length. For a non-moving target the
phase differences can be converted into a digital elevation map if very precise satellite orbit data are
available. Effects of noise due to changes of atmospheric propagation between various images can
be strongly reduced by combined processing of several interferometric image pairs with different
baselines (multi-baseline interferometry) (Ferretti et al., 1999).

For motion mapping by means of InSAR it is necessary to separate the motion-related and the
topographic phase contributions. This can be done by differential processing using two
interferograms of different time periods calculated from two or three images if the motion was
constant in time. If the motion is slow, the topographic phase can be taken directly from an
interferogram of a short time span (e.g. the one-day time span of the Tandem Phase, when ERS-1
and ERS-2 operated simultaneously).

There are two important constraints for the application of InSAR to slope motion monitoring: (1)
InSAR measures only displacements in slant range, the component of the velocity vector in flight
direction cannot be measured. (2) InSAR can only map the motion at characteristic temporal and
spatial scales (Massonet and Feigl, 1998), related to the spatial resolution of the sensor and the
repeat interval of imaging. Typical scales for ERS interferometry application to landslide movements
are millimeters to centimeters per month (with 35-day repeat-pass images) down to millimeters to
centimeters per year (with approximately annual time spans). Faster landslides could only be studied
during special orbital repeat configurations of ERS in previous years (Fruneau and others, 1996),
such as the Tandem Phase or the 3-day repeat cycle during the Commissioning Phase and the Ice
Phase of ERS-1 during a few months of 1992, 1993 and 1994. With the resolution of ERS (9.6 m in
slant range, 6.5 m across track, 5.6 cm wavelength) the minimum horizontal dimension of a
landslide for area-extended interferometric analysis, which can be applied with a single image pair,
is about two-hundred meters across- and along-track. Future SARs with higher resolution (Radarsat-
2) will enable the mapping of smaller slides. With the Permanent Scatterer Technique the movement
of small objects (down to about one square meter) can be monitored, as discussed below.

A precondition for the generation of an interferogram is coherence, which means that the phase of
the reflected wave at the surface remains the same in the two SAR images. The loss of coherence
(decorrelation) is the main problem for interferometric analysis over long time spans, as required for
mapping of very slow movements. Whereas the signal of densely vegetated areas decorrelates
rapidly, the phase of the radar beam reflected from surfaces, which are sparsely vegetated or
unvegetated often remain stable over years. This has been utilized for mapping very slow slope
movements in high Alpine terrain (Rott et al., 1999; Rott et al., 2000).

Motion analysis in vegetated areas is only possible if a few stable objects (usually man-made
constructions such as houses, roads etc.) are located within these areas. Using long temporal series
of interferometric SAR images (typically about 30 or more repeat pass images over several years)
objects with stable backscattering phase are determined by statistical analysis. Only some of the
man-made objects reveal long-term phase stability. The analysis of the SAR time series with the
Permanent Scatterer Technique (Ferretti et al., 2000; 2001) enables the detection of very small
movements of individual objects (e.g. single houses). A certain number density of stable objects (at
least about 5 per km2) is needed to enable accurate correction of atmospheric phase contributions.
This method has been applied to map subsidence in urban and rural areas in various countries.

The future availability of spaceborne InSAR data for slope motion monitoring is not yet clear. The
European ERS SAR is a useful system for repeat-pass SAR interferometry because of the high
stability of the sensor, good orbit maintenance and the fixed operation mode. However, a system
failure that occurred on ERS-2 January 17 2001 has resulted in the orbit deadband being relaxed
from +/- 1 km to +/- 5 km. As a result interferometry can only be performed at few random
occasions. The European follow-on sensor ASAR on board the ENVISAT, as well as other planned
SARs, provide many different operation modes, which will reduce the availability of repeat pass
interferometric data. On the other hand, the higher spatial resolution of some of these sensors would
be of interest for mapping also small slides. The important contributions of InSAR to hazard
management and to a range of other environmental monitoring tasks would justify a long-term SAR
mission optimized for InSAR applications.

Due to the typical SAR repeat orbits of the order of 25 to 35 days, InSAR is mainly suitable for
monitoring very slow movements of slopes and individual objects, and for mapping of subsidence.
Thus it is able to fulfil specific information needs for landslide monitoring, complementary to other
information sources. The main advantage over conventional techniques is the possibility of very
precise displacement measurements over large areas at reasonable costs, thus being an excellent tool
for reconnaissance.

Landslide mitigation
Landslide mitigation comprises the following activities: hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment,
restrictive zoning, and protective engineering solutions. Slope instability hazard zonation or
assessment is defined as the mapping of areas with an equal probability of occurrence of landslides
within a specified period of time. A landslide hazard zonation consists of two different aspects, the
assessment of the susceptibility of the terrain for a slope failure and the determination of the
probability that a triggering even occurs.

The essential steps to be followed in landslide hazard zonation are:
· Mapping the landslide distribution based on type, activity, dimensions, etc.
· Mapping and analyzing the most relevant terrain parameters related to the occurrence of
landslides.
· Assigning weights to the individual causative factors, the formulation of decision rules and the
designation of landslide susceptibility class.

The development of a clear hierarchical methodology in hazard zonation is a necessary condition to
obtain an acceptable cost/benefit ratio and to ensure its practical applicability. The working scale for
a slope instability analysis is determined by the requirements of the user for whom the survey is
executed. Planners and engineers use the following examples of scales:

· National scale (< 1:1000000) provides a general inventory of problem areas for an entire
country, which can be used to inform national policy makers and the general public.

· Regional scale (1:100000 - 1:500000) is used in the early phases of regional development
projects to evaluate possible constraints, due to instability, in the development of large
engineering projects and regional development plans.
· Medium scale (1:25000 - 1:50000) is used for the determination of hazard zones in areas
affected by large engineering structures, roads and urbanization plans.
· Large scale (1:5000 - 1:15000) is used at the level of site investigations prior to the design phase
of engineering works.

EO information requirements for landslide mitigation
Potentially unstable slopes and landslides are most often local scale features, even though they can
occur in great numbers over a wide area (especially when triggered by a large earthquake or a very
intense and/or prolonged storm). This and the limited areal extent of many damaging or socio-
economically significant mass movements (often as little as few tens of square meters or less), imply
that satellite observation and monitoring will require much greater spatial and vertical resolution with
respect to that used in the study of other natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes, volcanic
eruptions.

More detailed scales (1:5000 or better) are also required during the site investigations aimed at
providing reliable information for designing engineering control works needed to prevent or repair
slope failures (Turner and Schuster 1996). In order to be used profitably for slope stability analyses
and for planning subsurface investigations, which typically precede the actual engineering
construction phase, the acquired detailed information will also need to be quantitative, where
possible. In general, the greatest possible (or economically justified) level of detail may be warranted.
This will be particularly the case in urban or per-urban settings where public safety is the principal
issue, or where the socio-economic consequences of potential landslide damage might be severe.
Therefore, the scales required during the design of slopes are often larger than 1:2000, and the most
commonly used scales may vary from 1:1000 to 1:500. In some cases, even more detailed scales are
utilised. This level of detail would imply a sub-meter pixel spatial resolution of remotely sensed
data. Similarly, the altimetric resolution would need to be close to 0,5 m. Therefore, the practical or
operational use of the currently available EO data in engineering geology site-specific landslide
investigations is considerably limited (Wasowski and Gostelow, 1999). The improved resolution of
the planned future sensors (3 m or better pixel resolution), however, should provide information
sufficiently detailed for assessing the feasibility of slope engineering projects and for defining some
preliminary design characteristics. Various methods have been used to produce landslide inventory
maps. These maps are produced from the interpretation of stereo aerial photographs, satellite
images, ground surveys, and historical occurrences of landslides. The final product gives the spatial
distribution of mass movements, represented either at scale or as points. When multi-temporal
airborne or satellite image analysis is included the inventory maps show landslide activity.

There are two aspects of EO data that are important for landslide mitigation. First of all, it has been
shown that multi-temporal EO data can be used to determine the changes in landslide distribution,
and as such are useful to produce landslide inventory maps. Second, EO data can be used to map
factors that are related to the occurrence of landslides, such as lithology, faults, slope, vegetation and
land use. The temporal changes in these factors can also be mapped, which can be used within a
GIS in combination with a landslide inventory map for landslide hazard assessment.

Current landslide inventory maps are not standardized around the world. They are published at
different scales with various levels of details. These maps usually include information on the
classification of the landslide type, their location, as well as the geomorphic and slope characteristics.
In some cases, active and dormant landslides are distinguished. In other cases, the information is
included on geological and soil degradation maps.

For the evaluation of the suitability of remote sensing images for landslide inventory mapping the
size of individual slope failures in relation to the ground resolution cell is of crucial importance.
Although sizes of landslides vary enormously according to the type of slope failure, some useful
information can be found in literature. The total map area for a failure of 42000 m
2 corresponds
with 20 x 20 pixels on a SPOT Pan image and 10 x 10 pixels on SPOT multispectral images. This
would be sufficient to identify a landslide displaying a high contrast, but it is insufficient for a proper
analysis of the elements pertaining to the failure to establish characteristics and type of landslide. It is
believed that if 1:15.000 is the most appropriate scale, then, 1:25.000 should be considered as the
smallest scale to analyze slope instability phenomena on aerial photographs. Using smaller scales a
slope failure may be recognized as such, if size and contrast are sufficiently large. However, the
amount of analytical information, enabling the interpreter to make conclusions on type and causes
of the landslide, will be very limited at scales smaller than 1:25.000. For this reason, 3-meter stereo
images will be most useful for detail interpretation.

Currently, air photos are used extensively to produce landslide inventory maps, because they allow
features demonstrating slope movement that range from small terracettes, indicating soil creep to
large landslides to be resolved. Current research has shown that high-resolution stereo SAR and
optical images, combined with topographic and geological information have assisted in the
production of landslide inventory maps. The multi-incidence, stereo and high-resolution capabilities
of RADARSAT are particularly useful for landslide inventory maps. High-resolution systems such as
IKONOS, IRS and the stereo capability of SPOT 4 are useful for landslide recognition and related
land use mapping. Other planned high-resolution stereo systems such as ENVISAT and
RADARSAT-2, and ALOS will be useful to map landslide features.

To facilitate the use EO data for landslide inventory maps more research needs to be done in the
following areas in the short term:
· High resolution (<8m) remote sensing data needs to be easily integrated with existing
information. This task is particularly challenging in high relief slopes where most landslides
occur.
· Current landslide interpretation, data fusion and InSAR techniques needs to be tested in
different topographic and geological environments.
· Standardized landslide inventory mapping procedures using high resolution RS data as an image
base needs to be developed. This is possible at a scale of 1:50000 using current techniques.
· Low-cost DDTM (= differentiated DTM) can be generated from multi-temporal aerial
photographs in order to assess landslide vulnerability.

III.
RESPONSE

Disaster response comprises the rapid damage assessment, and relief operations, once the disaster
has occurred. Currently, damage assessment is done using aerial photography, videography and
ground checks. In order to be able to use EO data for landslide damage assessment, two criteria
should be met: High temporal and high spatial resolution (ca 3-10m stereo) is essential for landslide
damage assessment and relief efforts. Images taken at the time of disaster or days after the event
similar to other geohazards ­earthquake and volcanoes ­ is a requirement to support relief efforts.
This will be satisfied, in part, by existing and planned high resolution, stereo optical and SAR
systems. In cases where the damage is extensive, either as a single large event, or many small events
covering a large area, there is a need for high-resolution images (ca 3-10m), before and after event.
This can be used to supplement airborne and ground techniques for local and regional damage
assessment. Guidelines for a landslide hazard emergency response scenario are presented at the end
of this report. It is intended that this will help to facilitate the efforts of space agencies to acquire
appropriate data in order to achieve timely delivery of image maps for relief agencies.

IV. RESEARCH, CHALLENGES AND LIMITATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
EO DATA The difficulties associated with interpretation of EO data can require a high level of user knowledge
in remote sensing systems. Characterizing form, size, causative and triggering factors, pre-monitory
signs, mechanisms, post-failure evolution will require both ground-truth knowledge and advanced
technical skills in remote sensing processing. Although any InSAR sensed deformation is potentially
of interest to an engineering geologist or geotechnical engineer, in the case of landslides or unstable
slope areas, a change detection in both vertical and horizontal distances is needed to evaluate
landslide mechanisms (the monitoring of a horizontal component of movement is often critical for
hazard assessments). Furthermore, some other phenomena such as subsidence (eg. caused by
natural processes such as compaction, thawing, or man-made), settlement or subsidence of
engineering structures, (eg. caused by compression), shrink and swell of some geological materials,
need to be taken into account to correctly interpret the significance of the ground deformation one
might be detecting from EO data. The additional specific aspects of the geological context to be
considered in the EO data interpretation include (Wasowski and Gostelow (1999):
· three phases of landslide movements (pre-failure, during failure and post-failure)
· importance of gravity or continuous creep distinction
· weathering and shallow seasonal creep

It follows that, in general, the information obtained from InSAR (or other EO) methods will need to
be correlated with ground data and detailed survey controls in order to be correctly evaluated and to
provide a reliable relevant information to a disaster management community or to engineering
geologists and geotechnical engineers. In short, at present the InSAR methods could be viewed as
the complementary data source with respect to those acquired through ground based observations
and in-situ surveying. They will be especially attractive where no other data sources are available by
providing initial (potentially wide-area) assessments of ground deformation susceptibility.

The limitations and benefits of InSAR data processing techniques in terms of the time and cost
requirements is very difficult to assess at this time, with respect to in-situ monitoring operations and
surveying.

CEOS Demonstration Sites
Given the research gaps outlined above, the Landslide Hazard team plans to concentrate its efforts
on 3 test areas with different geological and terrain conditions. The choice of the sites is based on
(1) geological diversity; (2) the types of landslides, (3) current threat to populated areas and
infrastructure, and (4) existing work conducted by the current Landslide team. Earthquakes,
excessive rainfall, and volcanic events are the triggers of the landslides, and this allows the CEOS
landslide team to work more closely with the other working groups on earthquake, volcanic and
flood hazards. The focus, however, will be to evaluate current and future satellite high-resolution,
stereo and interferometric systems, and to develop standardized tools to characterize and monitor
unstable slopes in the following areas.

Fraser Valley Landslides: Canadian Cordillera
The Fraser valley in the Canadian Cordillera, is one of the most strategically important transportation
corridors in Canada. Almost all the transportation lifelines that link the prairie provinces with
metropolitan Vancouver utilize this corridor. Thirty-five large landslides ranging in size from at least 1
million to more than 500 million cubic metres have been identified in the lower Fraser Valley. Recently,
landslides have caused serious damage to the major transportation links. In the spring of 1997,
landslides have caused the derailment of the CN railway resulting in two deaths and 20 million dollars
of damage. In 1965, a large rock avalanche (48 x 106
m3) known as the Hope slide, occurred 160 km
east of Vancouver. The slide triggered by two small earthquakes (M) 3.2 and 3.1, buried three vehicles
and claimed four lives. The causes of landslides in the area include the weakening of failure planes in
carbonate rocks, solution erosion, seismic shaking, the presence of clay infilling along discontinuities,
steep slopes, excessive precipitation and deforestation. Savigny (1993) identified three types of slides in
the lower Fraser Valley. These include (1) slump and earth flow of surficial materials, mainly glacial
drift; (2) rock slide with slide scars and multiple scarps and (3) rock slumps with several arcuate scarps.
These slides mainly occur along the contact between plutons and metamorphic pendants and are
associated with regional north trending thrust and strike slip faults and lineaments. Singhroy et al
(1998) used differential airborne interferometry and high resolution (8m) stereo RADARSAT images to
map detail slope geomprphology for landslide inventory in the region. Repeat pass interferometry
techniques on the vegetation free slopes will be used to monitor motion on unstable slopes.

The Corniglio Landslide: Northern Apennines, Italy
The Corniglio landslide in the Emilia-Romangna Apennine Mts. in northern Italy (44°28' N - 10°05'
E) is an active large complex retrogressive landslide (length 3080 m, max. width 1120 m, depth
between 30 and 120 m) which underwent recent reactivation in 1994 and 1996 and 2001.
Abundant rainfall and minor seismic events accompany reactivation of this type. Field inspections in
October 2000 and May 2001 indicate gradual sliding at the head scarp and lower toe regions. The
rate of movement during re-activation periods varies from centimeter to several meters per day.
Average velocity (1994-96 period) for the middle-lower part of the slide is below 1 m/day. Average
daily rates of collateral deformations is < 1mm/day in the town of Corniglio (44.28 N, 10.05 E).
The lithology consists of sandstone, limestone, and argillite clasts mixed in fine-grained materials
(silty-sandy clay), derived from tectonically deformed "flysch" (turbidite) units. The average slope is
<10° in the lower 3/4 of the slide (flow portion); 23° in the upper-most part. The middle-upper part
of the slide is bare with grassland, while the lower 1/3 (toe) is sparsely vegetated with trees. Because
of the spare vegetation differential InSAR techniques will be used to monitor motion at this site. The
buildings of the town will be used as corner reflectors. Continuous monitoring by 15 automated
inclinometers, demonstrates that the slide is still moving slowly on a 10 degrees clay slope. Local
topographic network and 10 piezometers will provide additional field monitoring data.

Itaya Landslide: Japan
The Itaya landslide is an active silde in Yamagata Prefecture, northern Japan. The landslide is
located on the northern slope of Azumayama Volcano. Geologically, the surface of the landslide and
its surrounding areas is covered by debris flow deposits composed of andesitic volcanic rocks
Interferograms constructed from JERS-1 SAR provided a model of active movement of sub-blocks
along slip planes during periods of heavy precipitation ( Kimura and Yamaguchi 2000). Stereo
RADARSAT images are currently being used to characterize the geomorphic features of the slide.
The landslide hazard team will conduct evaluation of future Japanese ALOS data

V. SUMMARY Our challenge is to recognize and interpret the detailed geomorphic characteristics of large and small
landslides, and determine whether or not failure is likely to occur. This has not been fully explored to
date from current EO data.

· The role of EO data for landslide hazard assessment will increase as more useful techniques are
developed.
· Recent results have shown that more use can be made from current high resolution stereo SAR
and optical images to produce more standardized landslide inventory maps which will assist
hazard planning.
· The availability of less than 3-meter resolution stereo images from planned SAR and optical
systems will increase the geomorphic information on slopes, and therefore produce more reliable
landslide inventory and risk maps.
· Landslide prediction will remain complex and difficult even with ground techniques.
· GIS and RS techniques will remain a regional analysis tool.
· Detail slope and motion maps produced from InSAR techniques can assist in more accurate
slope stability studies. When the conditions are correct, SAR interferometry is a useful tool for
detecting and monitoring mass movement and thus is able to contribute to the assessment and
mitigation of landslide hazards.

Guidelines for Landslide Hazard Emergency Response Scenario

Request for assistance would be triggered if a landslide was a threat to life, and or threatened or caused safety
or damage to property and infrastructure

Obtain background information
Check if
Considered
1.

Location of the landslide (latitude, longitude, possibly GPS info)

2.

Date and Time of the landslide

3.

Responsible Search and Rescue Agency (s)

4.
Contact information for all involved agencies ( support agencies, on-scene
commander, etc.)

4.

Location of nearby populated areas and infrastructure such as energy and
transportation routes

5.
Geological ( terrain, lithology, structure and seismic), topographic land use/land
cover and other risk hazard maps ­ at scales less than 1: 50,000 if available

6.
Meteorological data particularly rainfall information before, during and after the
event

7.
Archival, stereo air photos at scale from 1: 5000-50000, and other remote sensing
data such as Landsat, SPOT IRS, RADARSAT, ERS , JERS, and Russian high
resolution optical data
Space agencies should produce " thumbnails of archival images to ensure high
quality comparisons and data fusion

Priorities for image planning
1.
A. Characterize landslide areas, and assess damage require high to medium
resolution (3-10m) cloud free stereo and single images. For example
RADARSAT: Fine beam modes F1-5, and RADARSAT Stereo (F1, F5) (F2,F5) (F3,
F5) with same look directions ­ ascending / ascending or descending /descending
IKONOS: 4 m. multi spectral: 1m. panchromatic
IRS: 5.8m
SPOT: 10m stereo and panchromatic
B. Monitor motion soon after the slide resulting from seismic aftershocks requires
InSAR imagery. For example:- 1 InSAR pair- ERS1&2 ENVISAT, RADARSAT,
ALOS) or most ideally 2 InSAR pairs within the first month after the event.

Value Added Products in support of relief effort (ideally within 2 weeks after the event)

The following value added products should be available for a comprehensive relief effort:

To assess ground/ slope instability:
· Less than 1: 20 000 interpreted image maps (digital and print) with detail geomorphological
and geological characterization and interpretation of slide mechanics
· InSAR coherent maps with annotated interpretation for general use

To assess damage:
· Thematic maps at scales less than 1:20000. showing damaged areas such as buildings,
infrastructure and resources ( forestry etc).
· Change detection image maps using current and archival images with simple legend for general
use.

Data delivery :
An Internet transfer system should be established to transfer all images and value added products to
relief agencies and participating interpretation agencies. In order for agencies to most effectively
work together, all parties should have the same set of state- of art information available as quickly
as possible.

LANDSLIDE
HAZARD
TEAM

1. Vern Singhroy, (Chair) Canada Centre for Remote Sensing, Ottawa, Canada
Vern.singhroy%40ccrs.nrcan.gc.ca 2. Nancy Glenn (Co-Chair) Idaho State University, Pocatello, Idaho, USA,
glennanc%40isu.edu 3. Hiroshi Ohkura, (Co-Chair) National Research Institute for Earth Sciences and Disaster
Prevention.
Ohkura%40ess.bosai.go.jp 4. Alberto Refice INFM-Dipartimento Interateneo di Fisica, Bari, Italy Alberto.Refice%40ba.infn.it 5. Cees J. van Westen, International Training Centre, Enschede, Netherlands. westen%40itc.nl 6. Deter Bannert, Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources Hannover, Germany.
Bannert%40bgr.de

7. Janusz Wasowski, Italian National Research Council, Bari, Italy
wasowski%40area.ba.cnr.it 8. Mark Bulmer, National Air and Space Museum, Smithsonian Institution, USA,
mbulmer%40nasm.si.edu

9. Helmut Rott, Institut of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Innsbruck, Austria,
Helmut.Rott%40uibk.ac.at 10. Leonardo Zan, Aquater, Italy :Leonardo.Zan%40aquater.eni.it

Other Participants

1. Zhihua Wang, China Aero-Geophysical Survey and Remote Sensing Center for Land and
Resources, China,
wangzhih%40mx.cei.gov

2. Jennifer Haase, ACRI-ST, France,
jh%40acri.fr

3. Biswajeet Pradhan, Dresden University of Technology, Dresden, Germany,
biswajeet%40mailcity.com

4.
Philippe Trefois, Africamuseum Belgium, ptrefois%40africamuseum.be

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http://www.esa.int/fringe99

T E A M R E P O R T
Oil Spill

OIL SPILL HAZARDS CEOS DISASTER
MANAGEMENT
SUPPORT
GROUP ______________________________________________________________________________

SUMMARY Oil is both physically and chemically hazardous, with disastrous consequences in marine
environments that are exposed to both chronic and acute pollution. Acute pollution from grounding
and breaking-up of tankers, such as the Torrey Canyon and the Erika has focused public concern,
although the total spillage from such incidents is less than that released as illegal discharges
attributed to tank cleaning or bilge pumping. Increased public pressure has forced national and
international organisations to set up effective legislative protection for the marine and coastal
environments over the last 15-20 years. As a result, many countries have signed agreements such as
MARPOL and UNCLOS and regional protection agreements, such as the Oslo-Paris and Helsinki
conventions in which dumping of waste materials in the marine environment is expressly forbidden.
The international legislation allows coastal states to inspect all shipping within territorial waters and
also to ensure that national legislation preventing any dumping applies equally to national and
foreign owned shipping. At present, penalties are based on fines levied against both the shipmasters
and the tanker owners.

In this context, Earth Observation (EO) data has four potential uses based on its ability to provide
relatively low cost, large area surveillance. These uses range from prevention to response at local to
regional scales and are based on the use of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) instruments.
Operational uptake has been slow, complicated both by the need to integrate SAR surveillance
information with reconnaissance and vessel identification technologies and by non-technical issues
such as legislation, public finance restrictions and political will. Nevertheless, public pressure is
increasing the need for EO data integration and this can be facilitated by the actions of space
agencies and private sector satellite operators.

At present, satellite SAR data are used within limited areas due to mission constraints on the
attainable revisit and spatial coverage. This issue is partially addressed by the next generation of
SAR satellites such as the ENVISAT's ASAR and RADARSAT-2 but other issues need to be resolved.
Faster information delivery, improved discrimination of oil, increased pricing flexibility and greater
redundancy are required before many national pollution control agencies will accept EO data as a
reliable tool. Another area where the space agencies can assist the uptake of EO data is in setting up
routine (background mission) surveillance of coastal waters. EO surveys provide the only cost
effective means to systematically determine the extent and distribution of chronic pollution. As well
as allowing pollution control agencies to deploy their existing resources more effectively, surveys
advertise the extent of pollution and utility of EO data for monitoring it.

Summary of Recommendations
· Establish routine (background mission) surveillance of coastal waters
· Provide faster information delivery, improved discrimination of oil, increased pricing flexibility
and greater redundancy
· Improve levels of dialogue between the service providers -- who in most cases are present at the
ground station -- and the satellite operators
· Optimize airborne-satellite surveillance systems by extending agreements to other areas (for
example, the Persian Gulf, the Mediterranean, South East AsiaMeans to facilitate filling gaps
· Monitor critical areas (ship routes, oil platforms, national Economic Exclusion Zones)
· Set up a coordinated satellite data ordering system
· Perform oil slick distribution studies. These would provide basic information concerning the scale
of the problem (many countries ignore the oil pollution issue, since it is unquantified).
· Increase polarimetric C-band SAR coverage. Current and planned coverage is barely sufficient
to run operational services below high latitudes and provides no scope for satellite/instrument
failure. The need for excess capacity as redundancy in case of failure should not be ignored.
Many national authorities will not commit to operational satellite services that are prone to single
point failure

Mechanisms to improve access to satellite data
· Global, unified ordering system valid for many satellites
· Fast payload planning
· Fast data and product dissemination
· Special data policy
· Introduction of products in a standard GIS format (e.g. GeoTIFF), since ingest of EO data using
image processing packages (ERDAS Imagine, EASI-PACE, ER-Mapper) is mainly limited to
existing EO specialists. Many of the target users are not EO specialists but have GIS packages for
spatial databases and/or coastal process modelling.

Expand user outreach
· Spill drifting models that are capable of ingesting satellite data (scatterometer derived surface
winds may with improved resolution be of practical use with these models to help to
determine the direction an oil spill might be going).
· Automated spill detection algorithms
· Standards for products/responsive to user needs
· Mutual training services (towards space info managers and spill response teams)
· Communication means for product delivery
· Flexibility in data pricing (target is < 2.5 US¢ per square km)
· Demonstration projects for multi-satellite usage

General Application Description
Oil is hazardous, both physically and chemically. Physically, oil can coat and clog biological
structures (feathers and gills) which are adapted to cope with water. Chemically, oil contains a range
of toxins that can either poison living organisms directly in high concentrations or build up slowly in
low concentrations, gradually disrupting their biochemistry and increasing their vulnerability to other
natural or man-made hazards. Exposure can be both rapid through the massive release of oil
associated with the bigger oil tanker accidents or chronic through the build-up of toxins in the
marine community after years of oil dumping. Chemical toxins that are not readily broken down
become concentrated in ecosystems, rendering those organisms at the top of food chain (including
humans) most vulnerable to chronic pollution.

To manage oil spill disasters effectively, national, regional, and international mechanisms are
required to support the prevention of spills and the clean up of large-scale accidental spills as well as
the prosecution/deterrence of those responsible for deliberate oil dumping. In order for these
mechanisms to work, it is necessary to have a legal framework, a clear mandate for operation, and
an organization established to carry out the necessary prosecution and clean-up functions (see
Figure 1).
LegalframeworkMandateOrganisationfunctionsEnvironmental impact
assessmentSurveillanceReconnaissanceEvidence gatheringClean upProsecutiontoolsAircraftSatellitesSurface vesselsVessel Tracking ManagementInformation Systems (VTMIS)Coastal RadarSpill drift models / managementinformation systems

Figure 1: Elements of an effective oil spill management system

Increasing levels of public pressure have forced national and international organizations to set up
effective legislative frameworks to protect marine and coastal environments. As a result, many
countries have signed agreements such as MARPOL, UNCLOS and regional protection agreements
such as the Oslo-Paris and Helsinki conventions, in which dumping of waste materials in the marine
environment is expressly forbidden. Much of the public concern arose from the grounding and
breaking up of tankers such as the Torrey Canyon, the Exxon Valdez, the Sea Empress and the
Erika (although the total spillage from such incidents in terms of tons of oil released into the marine
environment is less than that released as illegal discharges due to tank cleaning activities).

To prevent illegal dumping at sea, legislation has been set up to allow coastal states to inspect all
shipping within territorial waters and also to ensure that national legislation preventing any dumping
applies equally to national and foreign owned shipping. At present, penalties are based on fines
levied against both the shipmasters and the tanker owners. The mandate for enforcement is either
divided between government agencies or delegated to a dedicated pollution control agency. Local
authorities and non-governmental organisations may also become involved in particular areas of
response (beach clean up, sea bird rescue).

Effective prevention, response and deterrence require integration of the tools available to pollution
control organisations and it is in this context that satellite remote sensing should be considered. The
use of satellite remote sensing is considered in this report in terms of four distinct cases. These `use
cases' are summarised in the table below and described in more detail in the following sections.
Each specific application of Earth Observation is considered in terms of the role EO plays and this
provides the context for later sections detailing user, observational and baseline data requirements.

Use Case
User Level
Category
Action Status
Enforcement / monitoring
National / regional
Mitigation
Operational
Major coastal spill (accident) National / regional
Response
Research
Minor coastal spill (dumping) Local / national
Preparedness
Demonstrator
Spill distribution survey
Regional / national Mitigation
Research

Table 1: Summary of specific applications of EO to oil spill disaster management


Specific application descriptions
Use Case:
Enforcement/monitoring
Hazard Type:
Deliberate
oil
spillage
(chronic
exposure)
User Level:
National,
Regional
Disaster Management Category: Mitigation
(surveillance and detection)
Operational Status:

Operational (over a few areas of the world)

Earth Observation is already used operationally for enforcement/monitoring of national waters,
although the uptake has been slow. At present, only the Norwegian Pollution Control Authority
(SFT) and the Admiral Danish Fleet (SOK) use operational satellite surveillance services.

National pollution control authorities have the responsibility to maintain some level of monitoring
and prosecution to deter shipping operators from illegally discharging material within national and
protected international waters. Monitoring and evidence gathering involves three processes: (1)
routine surveillance to detect potential oil slicks, (2) detailed reconnaissance of potential slicks to
verify the presence of oil and (3) identification of the polluter. Suitably equipped aircraft can
accomplish all three tasks but these are expensive to operate for surveillance and are rarely able to
reach oil slicks in time to identify the polluter. To understand how Earth Observation satellites can
be used in enforcement/monitoring, the oil spill team considered the case of "Molotonia," a
hypothetical country setting up a national marine pollution control agency. Figure 2 illustrates how
specialist elements for surveillance, reconnaissance and polluter identification would interact and
provides, from the user perspective, the context for the exploitation of EO data.

We do note here that the type of EO for large accidental spills that operational environmental
satellite agencies (such as NOAA in the USA) would be involved in is of questionable use.
Scatterometry would serve as a source of real wind data (meteorological-modelled is currently used)
and could be a useful input for oil drift models. We defer to expert opinion in this area as to
whether scatterometer derived surface winds are (or will be with improved resolution) of practical
use with these models for helping to determine the direction an oil spill might be going.
Check tracks ofvessels in vicinityDetect slick from routineSAR* surveillance[oil dump]Verify /characterise slickBring legalcase to courtTask aircraftreconnaissanceDetermineliabilityFine polluterIssue vesselholding orderSeize vesselIdentify vessel track /oil slick intersectionAcquire met. andcurrent data[alert]Hindcast oil slickposition*
Synthetic Aperture Radar

Figure 2: Activity diagram showing how the marine pollution control agency of
"Molotonia" would respond to an illegal oil spill.

The principal satellite data source at present is spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). In some
cases, SAR imagery is processed to low resolution (on the order of 100m) within minutes of the
satellite overpass and visually analyzed by specially trained operators to identify possible oil slicks.
Once a slick is detected, a fax is transmitted to the national pollution control authority, containing
the location of possible slicks, classification of the level of certainty in the identification, an estimate
of the probable source and the time of observation. In addition, a copy of the SAR image is
appended. This information is used by the pollution control authorities to optimize the flight plan of
the surveillance aircraft, to confirm possible slicks and to avoid regions known to be free from
pollution. The average time elapsed between satellite overpass and reception of an alarm by the
pollution control authorities is between 1 and 2 hours.

In some other cases, a better resolution is used (10m with RADARSAT Finebeam) or the processing
time may be reduced to less than 1 hour. Use of the satellite data allows significant improvement in
the surveillance capability for only a very small additional investment. A preliminary analysis by the
Tromso Satellite Station (TSS) indicates that combining one patrol aircraft and a mission such as the
ERS SAR (which was not intended to be operational) provides similar performance to a doubling of
the available airborne survey resources. Given the cost of aerial surveillance, it is estimated that SAR
imagery is competitive at costs below 2.5 US cent per square km.

The provision of this service is dependent on the availability of a suitably fast processor at the point
where the data are downloaded, which limits the availability of services to areas within the visibility
of suitably equipped ground stations. On-board recording may provide a solution to this issue, by
dumping data at a central point, where a fast processor is installed, but the time between acquisition
and down-linking can add an extra 1.5 hours between overpass and the alarm being issued. At
present, suitable processors are installed in stations in North America, Norway and the UK providing
complete coverage of the North Atlantic waters, and in Singapore, covering a large part of the South
East Asian coastal seas.

As noted earlier, the Norwegian and Danish agencies responsible for marine pollution control are
using satellite surveillance operationally. The surveillance is carried out in tandem with aircraft
surveillance to allow aircraft reconnaissance of any detected slicks. The Netherlands' Rijkswaterstaat
North Sea Directorate and the German Federal Marine Pollution Control Unit are both evaluating
the use of ERS-2 SAR data. A pilot satellite surveillance service is currently being provided to the UK
Marine Coastguard Agency. Limited demonstration programs have also been completed in Italian
and Greek areas of the Mediterranean Sea, although the processor is not optimized for the
application at present. In addition to national pollution control agencies, oil companies operating in
areas such as the North Sea, are beginning to use satellite observations to support in-situ monitoring
infrastructure, although this is not fully operational at this stage.

Use Case:
Major
coastal
oil
spills
Hazard Type:
Massive
accidental
oil
spillage (intense exposure)
User Level:
National,
Regional
Disaster Management Category: Response
Operational Status:

Research (poor results reported to date)

It is tempting for satellite operators to capitalise on the publicity surrounding major oil tanker
disasters but experience has shown that the premature release of satellite imagery can be counter
productive, confusing the pollution control response. SAR data should be used with caution
particularly in the critical coastal areas where response teams need to know the distribution of the
spilled oil. Interpretation of oil distribution in coastal areas is particularly difficult because the coastal
topography causes wind shadows that, in SAR imagery, are visually indistinguishable from oil. In the
cases of the Sea Empress and Aegean Sea oil spills, the well publicised, indiscriminate use of SAR
images has given EO a `bad press'. Under these circumstances, more easily interpreted optical data
(such as, SPOT HRV, LANDSAT TM/ETM) may be used.

SAR data has been shown to be useful where analysis has been carried out to take account of local
wind effects. In an operational setting, this requires prior acquisition of SAR data under a range of
meteorological conditions combined with the simulation of SAR data using a local DEM and wind
vector/SAR modelling techniques. This is only practical for areas at high risk either due to their
degree of exposure (for example, the approaches to oil terminals) or due to their environmental
sensitivity (such as coral reefs, bird sanctuaries).

Use Case:
Minor
coastal
oil
spills
Hazard Type:

Beaching of illegally dumped oil
User Level:

Local, National
Disaster Management Category: Preparedness
Operational Status:
Demonstration

This use case is similar to the enforcement/monitoring case in that the cause is often deliberate and
not reported, so regular monitoring is required to detect spills. The difference is that the interested
local/provincial and national authorities are engaged in coastal protection and clean up and need to
know where the oil is likely to come ashore. At the very least, they require EO derived spill vector
outlines that can be integrated with meteorological and marine current data using coastal
Geographic Information Systems or specialist pollution management systems. Ideally, a spill alert
service would itself use such information with a drift prediction model to issue alerts targeted to
those areas most likely to be affected.

Use Case:

Spill distribution surveys
Hazard Type:
Illegally
dumped
oil
User Level:
National,
Regional
Disaster Management Category:
Mitigation (awareness and resource deployment)
Operational Status:
Research

EO data provides a uniquely cost effective method for wide area, systematic surveillance of national
and regional waters to determine the geographic/seasonal patterns of oil dumping. Such surveys,
combined with statistical analysis, may be used to determine both the scale and geographic
distribution of the pollution problem. The results can be used by marine pollution control agencies in
the strategic planning of how their resources should be deployed. Spill distribution surveys require
some degree of independent validation to determine the percentage rates of false positives
(incorrectly identified oil) and false negatives (oil slicks missed by the survey). A good source of
survey data is therefore operational and pilot satellite surveillance services where national pollution
control agencies are actively involved. Examples of projects that involved spill distribution
surveillance are OilWatch and Clean Seas, which were funded in the late 1990s under EU Fourth
Framework R&D contracts.

End user requirements
This section begins with a general discussion of the requirements defined by end users involved in
operational and demonstration EO information services. Specific observational requirements for
each EO use case are then presented. In the final sub-section, these observational requirements are
translated into a set of baseline data requirements, which define the primary and secondary data
sources available in the short to medium term. Requirements for the information services can be
separated into the level of performance necessary (coverage, update, spatial scale etc.) and the
associated quality indicators of the information (probability of false alarm, etc). End users require a
subset of priority national waters to be surveyed on a daily basis with coverage sufficient to represent
a deterrent against illegal dumping activities. All slicks of importance (greater than 0.01 square km)
must be present within the notification service.

With regard to the quality indicators of the information service, the end user must be confident that
there are very few false negatives, (that is, that no slicks are present in an area declared "clean").
The false positive rate, the fraction of the slick notifications that turn out to be false alarms, should
also be low. A false positive rate of typically less than 10% could be seen as an optimal requirement.
Experience with several pollution control authorities suggests that even a large false positive rate is
still acceptable. A rate of 50 % could be accepted by some of the end users. False positive rates are
difficult to quantify because aircraft confirmation rates drop dramatically as the time between
satellite and aircraft observation increases due to slick drift/dispersal and changing wind conditions.
The basic methodology of simply validating satellite observations with aircraft observations is
fundamentally flawed, since it assumes that the airborne observations are correct. In fact, airborne
SLAR is susceptible to the same wind speed constraints and manual interpretation errors as
spaceborne SAR. Relating non-synchronous spaceborne-airborne observations compounds this
problem.

Observational requirements
For each type of use, information needs have been identified. These needs are listed in the table
below:

Use Case
Spatial
resolution
Spatial
coverage
(swath width)
Temporal
resolution
Tasking time Delivery
time
(hours)
Enforcement /
monitoring
100m 50m 100km 300km weekly daily N/A
3 hrs <1 hr
Major coastal
spill (accident)
20m 5m 30km >100km daily hourly 2 days <1
day
2 hrs <1 hr
Minor coastal
spill (dumping)
100m 50m 100km 300km daily hourly N/A
3 hrs <1 hr
Spill distribution
survey
100m 50m 100km 300km weekly daily N/A
N/A

Table 2: Observational requirements for each specific application (use case) of EO data.

Note: Each requirement gives both threshold and optimum values. The data cost requirement
(<2.5 US cents per km
2) applies to all the use cases, as this is the cost of using conventional airborne
SLAR for surveillance purposes.

User organizations such as the UK MPCU typically specify the following as the minimum
observational requirements necessary from EO data (ESA-ESRIN 1995):
· Coverage: national priority waters
· Update: daily (for priority national waters)
· Delivery time: alarms within 1.5 hours of satellite overpass
The swath width affects the attainable revisit rate. National waters should be surveyed daily (which
means daily revisit) although with present systems this is not possible. The delivery time constraint
places requirements on the ground segment (users should receive data within 1.5 hours of satellite
overpass) which means processing and interpretation of all data over national waters should be
completed within this time. There is, however, a constraint regarding the requirement
(enforcement/monitoring) for repeat coverage. There are indications that this is not absolute and
that it depends on the aircraft resources available to each country. For instance, at least one
European monitoring authority is known to fly only 2 flights per week with no flights on weekends
and public holidays. They would be incapable of using daily repeat coverage because their aircraft
would not be available to respond to satellite-derived oil alerts for at least 5 days each week. For
most countries the aircraft reconnaissance capability is the limiting factor, and not the availability of
satellite surveillance.

Baseline data requirements
The baseline data requirements (see Table 3) have been derived by mapping the observational
requirements to the instruments and imaging modes available from current and planned EO
satellites. Table 3 also lists ancillary data types need to support the use of EO data for each use case.

Use Case
Primary instruments / image
modes and other information
requirements
Secondary instruments / image
modes and other information
Enforcement /
monitoring
RADARSAT 1/2 ScanSAR Narrow
ENVISAT ASAR image/alternating
polarisation mode
ERS-2 SAR;
Concurrent wind vector data
Major coastal
spill (accident)
ENVISAT ASAR image/alternating
polarisation mode
RADARSAT 1/2 Standard mode
LANDSAT 7
ETM
Area specific analysis of SAR response.
Concurrent wind / current vector data
ERS-2 SAR
ALOS SAR
SPOT
Minor coastal
spill (dumping)
RADARSAT 1/2 ScanSAR Narrow
ENVISAT ASAR image/alternating
polarisation mode
RADARSAT 1/2 Wide mode
ERS-2 SAR
Concurrent wind / current vector data
Spill distribution
survey
ENVISAT ASAR image/alternating
polarisation mode
RADARSAT 1/2 ScanSAR Narrow,
Wide or Standard mode
ERS-2 SAR
ALOS SAR

Table 3: Baseline data requirements for each specific application (use case) of EO data.
Assessment of current and planned satellite data
Present satellites:
ERS-2, RADARSAT-1. Optical satellites such as SPOT and LANDSAT

supplementary (for major spills) under favourable meteorological and light
conditions.
Planned satellites:
ENVISAT-1, RADARSAT-2, ALOS, TerraSAR.
· ENVISAT-1 (Europe), launched by ESA, has a C-band ASAR operating at various modes. The
ScanSAR mode has a swath width of approximately 400km and a 150-meter resolution, while
the standard modes have a swath of 110 km and a 20m resolution. In addition, ENVISAT will
operate in a dual polarisation. The capabilities of the ScanSAR and especially the dual
polarisation modes for oil spill detection are still to be documented.
· RADARSAT-2 (Canada), to be launched in 2003, has an advanced C-band SAR instrument
with 3-meter resolution, quad polarisation and steerable in right and left looking directions. In
addition, the various operating modes of RADARSAT-1 will also be available for RADARSAT-2.
The capabilities of RADARSAT-2 to detect oil spill are expected at least to be equivalent to those
already documented for RADARSAT-1.
· ALOS (Advanced Land Observation Satellite, Japan), to be launched in 2003, has an active
phased array, L-band, steerable sensor with a 350km swath and a 46 day repeat cycle (revisit
cycle: 5 days for PALSAR/ALOS).
· TerraSAR, a European satellite system is planned for launch in 2004. This system will have an
advanced L and X-band SAR. This system is primarily developed for terrestrial applications, but
it is expected that it will be applicable within other areas also. The capabilities for detection of oil
spill are currently not known.

Each of the satellites enables revisit times to be lowered and greater coverage at any one time to be
achieved. Furthermore, if a combination of these satellites were to be used, oil spill detection
services could be extremely close to meeting the end user requirements in terms of update times.
This would enable even greater savings on the part of the pollution control authorities.


Type of use
Present
Future
Surveillance
Lacking temporal coverage
Large number of false positive
alarms
Product delivery too slow
Co-ordinated satellite missions
Simultaneous cross polarised
SAR
Improved ground processing
Calibrated Radar sensor
Information/GIS integration
Marine ecosystem protection

Reference baseline images
Contribution to GIS data (e.g.
land use)
High resolution optical satellites
Dedicated coastal zone missions
Information/GIS integration
Response
Meteorological data not
adequate for imaging

Revisit time 1 hour with 5m
resolution (not planned!)
Information/GIS integration
Recreational
Not adequate temporal
coverage
Additional/complementary
satellites
Information/GIS integration

General improvements to consider
Based on experiences in exploiting the ERS and RADARSAT missions in operational services,
several issues can be identified that require attention in the development of a global service
provision capability.

Joint exploitation of available satellite SAR systems
At present, the joint use of all available C-band SAR systems is not being implemented efficiently
due to differences in the data access services provided by the satellite operators. Improved levels of
dialogue between the service providers -- who in most cases are present at the ground station --
and the satellite operators would ensure that acquisitions are scheduled in a manner consistent with
the applications requirements (although full compliance with the revisit or coverage constrains would
not be met in lower latitudes, such as the Mediterranean).

International co-operation agreements for surveillance
At present, many countries do not have the resources to mount an effective airborne surveillance
program. Current capabilities of satellite remote sensing (in particular, the limited revisit time
possible) is effectively limited to the optimization of such airborne resources, hence for countries with
no airborne surveillance, the contribution of satellite systems is very low. In the North Sea and the
Baltic Sea, however, there are agreements among all the states involved to pool airborne
surveillance information so that overall monitoring can be implemented in an optimized manner,
(that is, respectively within the frame of the BONN and the HELCOM-agreement). If such
agreements could be extended to other areas (for example, the Persian Gulf, the Mediterranean,
South East Asia), this could result in a more effective basis for deterring illegal spills. Furthermore,
such an agreement would allow satellite observations to make a contribution to the monitoring
services, enabling each country to obtain an optimized airborne and satellite service for a fixed
investment.

Means to facilitate filling gaps
The following methods have been identified:
· Monitor critical areas (ship routes, oil platforms, national Economic Exclusion Zones)
· Set up a coordinated satellite data ordering system
· Perform oil slick distribution studies. These would provide basic information concerning the scale
of the problem (many countries ignore the oil pollution issue, since it is unquantified).
· Increase polarimetric C-band SAR coverage. Current and planned coverage is barely sufficient
to run operational services below high latitudes and provides no scope for satellite/instrument
failure. The need for excess capacity as redundancy in case of failure should not be ignored.
Many national authorities will not commit to operational satellite services that are prone to single
point failure

Mechanisms to improve access to satellite data
In order to have an appropriate emergency spill response; there is a need for:
· Global, unified ordering system valid for many satellites
· Fast payload planning
· Fast data and product dissemination
· Special data policy
· Introduction of products in a standard GIS format (e.g. GeoTIFF), since ingest of EO data using
image processing packages (ERDAS Imagine, EASI-PACE, ER-Mapper) is mainly limited to
existing EO specialists. Many of the target users are not EO specialists but have GIS packages for
spatial databases and/or coastal process modelling.

Expand user outreach
The following tools are needed:
· Spill drifting models, that are capable of ingesting satellite data
· Automated spill detection algorithms
· Standards for products/responsive to user needs
· Mutual training services (towards space info managers and spill response teams)
· Communication means for product delivery
· Flexibility in data pricing (target is < 2.5 US¢ per square km)
· Demonstration projects for multi-satellite usage

Concluding remarks
It has been recognised that the satellite operators have the capability to present coverage maps for
their planning system. It has also been recognised that no harmonisation has been initiated, giving
the user the opportunity, for example, to present jointly the coverage maps from the different
missions (ERS and RADARSAT). In practical use, this lack of capability represents a drawback for an
operational user. Initiatives should therefore be taken jointly by the satellite operators to
develop/implement a multi-mission coverage charting system.

In order to proceed towards a longer term, operational oil spill monitoring service, the main
challenge will not relate to the technical portion, but rather to the need to develop more long-term
customers. The basic technology exists and the capabilities have been documented. There is hence
no need to develop any new image processing systems, but rather to document and inform about
the different systems that already exists.

Optical spaceborne systems have been proposed for use in operational services, however, they are
dependent upon weather and light conditions, which makes it difficult to establish and operate a
reliable monitoring system. Optical systems could, however, be used as a supplementary source of
information to radar data. Hyperspectral data, when available, could improve the ability to
discriminate and classify oil.

Practical work with pollution control authorities has shown that information about oil spills represent
a "sensitive" area. This is especially true for the capability to monitor the territorial waters of
neighbouring countries. The fact that such information could be misused represents a key concern. It
is therefore inaccurate to assess that such information should generally be made available to the
public without prior agreement and acceptance from the customer. Some type of procedure that
states ethical principles should therefore be developed. The working group could hence take an
initiative to develop a declaration on access to and use of space data in case of disasters.

One of the keys to successful development of the market depends upon a regional engagement. It is
strongly recommended that a regional service provider partner become involved from the very
beginning of the development work. This could be regional industry and/or any other institution
having the capabilities and the interest to invest within this application area. The roles of the
international partners, such as space agencies, are preferable during the initial development phases.
Such an engagement could, for example, mean that a demonstration service is available to the end-user at favourable cost during the initial phases (since data costs could be covered by the agency
during these phases).

Oil spill scenarios for emergency response The main focus would be to check for and deliver any archived SAR imagery of the affected area
together with coincident meteorological data and available digital elevation information. Such
background data is needed as a baseline to reveal slick like artifacts caused by interaction of the
prevailing winds and coastal topography. Without such background information, visual
interpretation of oil extent and distribution can be extremely misleading.

Proposed Emergency Scenario Examples:

Oil Spill
Obtain current and future status

Check if considered
1. Wind Direction
2. Weather Conditions
3. Location of fragile ecological zones that may be in danger

4. Potential/Expected zone that will be affected (supply map?)

5. Remedial measures taken by local authorities (containment efforts)

Obtain background information
1. Location of Oil Spill
2. Cause of Oil Spill
3. Volume of Oil Spill and rate of spillage

Select the imaging payload
1. SPOT
2. RADARSAT - use of radar imagery can facilitate (depending on weather
conditions) locating oil on the sea.
Suggested beams
1. If you have a good idea of where the spill is Wide 1, or if a larger region needs to be covered use
ScanSAR Narrow Fine beams are not suggested due to speckle interference and
inappropriate incidence angles
3. ERS - use of radar imagery can facilitate (depending on weather
conditions) locating oil on the sea

Data
1. Suggested value adding
2. Data delivery mechanism

1) Crisis scenario for the Project Manager (PM)

1. Context
The following crisis scenarios are written pursuant to Article IV, Section 4.2 of the International
Charter on Space and Major Disasters. These scenarios constitute the basis for action, by the PM
with initial dialogue with the Emergency On-Call Officer (ECO), in the event of identification of a
crisis, and are based on Partner Agencies individual experience, as well as the experience gained
through the implementation of the International Charter. Consequently the scenarios are subject to
regular updates. The number of crises that can be covered and the coverage intensity will also
increase as new International Charter members are accepted. The applications included here are
those that are appropriate for the current constellation of satellites used under the International
Charter.

2. General Considerations
The tasking of any one satellite to cover a disaster is based primarily on the timeliness of the data
acquisition and delivery and the applicability of the sensor in question to the natural or technological
event being imaged. The formulation of these scenarios is independent of any consideration of cost,
which is already assumed by the each Partner Agency's commitment to deliver data at a defined
processing level.

First, general constraints and characteristics of the various sensors to be programmed are described,
and then their performance scenarios for each of the major disasters that one or more of the sensors
are able to monitor are given.

· SPOT satellites 1, 2 and 4: There are satellite programming conflicts that will be managed by
Spot Image and in direct consultation with the ECO and the PM involved. Generally speaking,
one image acquisition per day is possible with the intervention of the three satellites. In the case
of a volcanic eruption and fires, night imagery (especially with SPOT 4 - MIR channel) can be
useful. For temperatures higher than 400 °C, even SPOT1 and SPOT2 might be of use. The 1
km resolution VEGETATION instrument on SPOT 4 does not require programming and
provides daily coverage of all the world's landmass with the exception of Antarctica.

· ERS-2: Programming conflicts are managed by ESA in liaison with the ECO and the PM.
Depending on the latitude of the disaster occurrence, generally two (2) to four (4) image
acquisitions are possible every 35 days on ascending and descending orbits. The previously built
ERS-1/ERS-2 tandem mission archives are richer with data acquired on descending rather than
ascending orbits.

· RADARSAT-1 has close to 30 imaging modes with regard to the width of the imaging swath, the
angle of the incident radar beam, and resolution of the ground target. Given the latitude of the
disaster occurrence, the revisit frequency may be no more than 7 days. In view of a large
number of imaging modes, there is extensive conflict management in fulfilling a data acquisition
request and programming the satellite. The conflict management and data acquisition planning
is carried out by CSA. The choice of imaging parameters will be based on the requirement and
there will be trade-offs between resolution and the extent of the area that can be covered.
Higher resolution is to be preferred generally over the extent of the coverage area; however,
there are cases where the choice may be easier to make. This is, for example, the case with
Standard and Wide beams of RADARSAT-1, which have similar resolution, though Wide beams
have a 150 km wide swath compared to only a 100 km wide swath of Standard beams. The use
of On-board tape recorder may introduce some additional constraints in terms data downlink
rates and bandwidth.

Radiometric gain issue needs to be addressed. Fixed gain selected by CSA and LUT for data
processing chosen by the CDPF are recommended.

· In view of the 'guaranteed' image acquisition with radar sensors, which are not hampered by
weather conditions and can image during day or night, the archives of these data may be
searched for useful reference imagery, preceding a disaster event. It is preferable to acquire
images at identical incidence angles. It is also preferable to compare images acquired during
identical periods (seasons), in order to minimise the effects of changes on the ground.

· The purpose for which the remote sensing data are furnished is to monitor the threat of a
disaster or to assess its effects. Each data type, radar vs. optical, has its inherent data analysis
and interpretation scheme.

3. Disaster Type: Oil
Spills

Purpose: Monitoring the disaster - displacement of the oil spill. Several successive data acquisitions
will be required. The satellite data acquisition will be combined with wind, sea- state and other
meteorological data for complementing the information sources.

· ERS (preferred over RADARSAT because of the vertical VV polarisation, though the dampening
effects of the oil surface is strong enough to be picked up equally well with any of the two
satellites, regardless of their polarisation. For RADARSAT, shallow-incidence modes (F1, W1,
SN1) should be selected. The location of a spill is often only approximately known. In this case
the best trade-offs are between Wide and ScanSAR Narrow beam modes (medium-resolution
wide swath). The "Fine" mode is only recommended when the location error margin is small.

· SPOT (specular image acquisitions with respect to the Sun : "East-looking acquisitions" or "Sun
glint" to be taken into consideration).

Web sites
CCRS
http://www.ccrs.nrcan.gc.ca/ccrs

Clean Seas project
http://www.satobsys.co.uk/CSeas

ESA-ISIS project
http://tempest.esrin.esa.it/isis/osm/OsmStart.hmtl
(user isis password no good)

OilWatch project
http://oilwatch.eos.co.uk

RadarSat International
http://radarsat.space.gc.ca

Tromso Satellite Station
http://www.tss.no/

Oil Spill Hazard Team Participants

1.
Thomas Lankester, Team Leader
NRSC (UK)
2.
Jérôme
Béquignon

ESA
(Europe)
3.
Carl
Brown

Environment
Canada
(Canada)
4.
Pablo Clemente Colon

NOAA/NESDIS (USA)
5.
Jason
Close
RadarSat
International
(Canada)
6.
Howard Edel

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (Canada)
7.
Jerry
Galt

NOAA/HAZMAT
(USA)
8.
Trevor Gilbert

Australian Maritime Safety Authority (Australia)
9.
David
Kennedy NOAA
(USA)
10. Gay
Mitchelson-Jacob

University of Wales, Bangor (UK)
11.
Shelley
Paraso

NOAA/NESDIS
(USA)
12.
Jan Petter Pedersen,

TSS (Norway)
13.
Yoshida Ueda

Hydrographic Department of Japan (Japan)
14.
Wayne
Wilmot
NOAA/NESDIS
(USA

REFERENCES

Brown, C.E. and M.F. Fingas, "Oil Spill Surveillance, Monitoring and Remote Sensing: A Global
Review", in Proceedings of the Twenty-second Arctic and Marine Oil Spill Program
Technical Seminar, Environment Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, pp. 387-402, 1999
G Campbell and G Calabresi, 1995, "Conclusions of the Oil Spill workshop," Oil spill special
bulletin. Proceedings of the Oil spill Workshop, ESA-ESRIN
Clemente-Colón, P., X.-H. Yan, and W. Pichel, 1997, "Evolution of Oil
Slick Patterns as Observed by SAR off the Coast of Wales," Proceedings 3rd ERS
Symposium, Florence , March 17-21, pp. 565-568.
Elliott, A.J. and B. Jones, 1998, "Oceanographic and meteorological conditions," in Proceedings of
the Sea Empress oil spill international conference, Cardiff, pp. 379-390.
Jones, B. and E.G. Mitchelson-Jacob, 1998, "On the interpretation of SAR imagery from the Sea
Empress oil spill," International Journal of Remote Sensing, 19, pp. 789-795.
J.P. Pedersen, L.G. Seljelv, G. D. Strøm, O.A. Follum, J.H. Andersen, T. Wahl, Å. Skøelv, "Oil
Spill detection by use of ERS SAR data," Proceedings of the second ERS applications
workshop, ESA SP, p. 361, 1996.

VOLCANIC HAZARDS ASSESSMENT CEOS DISASTER
MANAGEMENT
SUPPORT
GROUP

_____________________________________________________________________________________ SUMMARY Volcanoes pose a serious threat to persons on the ground near erupting volcanoes (due to proximal
hazards such as lava flows, mud flows, ash fall, etc). Ash clouds from major eruptions endanger
aircraft and airport operations over distances of thousands of kilometers. Remote sensing has
become an indispensable part of the global system of detection and tracking of the airborne
products of explosive volcanic eruptions via a network of Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs)
and Meteorological Watch Offices (MWOs). Visible and InfraRed (IR) satellite data provide critical
information on current ash cloud coverage, height, movement, and mass as input to aviation
SIGnificant METerological (SIGMET) advisories and forecast trajectory dispersion models. Recent
research has also shown the potential of remote sensing for monitoring proximal hazards such as hot
spots and lava flows using geostationary and polar InfraRed (IR) data. Also, Interferometric
Synthetic

Aperture Radar (InSAR) imagery has been used to document deformation and
topographic changes at volcanoes. However, limited spatial and temporal resolution of available
satellite data means that, for most proximal hazards, it is used mainly as supplemental information
for current eruptions, and post-disaster assessment in mitigation and prevention of future disasters.

Spectral bands used in detection of volcanic ash and surface-based hazards are identified in this
report. They include a variety of IR bands, especially those centered near 4, 7.3, 8.5, 11 and 12
microns. Visible (0.5 - 1.0 micron) and dual ultraviolet (UV) (0.3 - 0.4 micron) channels, although
limited to daytime use, are valuable for qualitative assessment of ash and sulfur dioxide (SO
2) plume
coverage, and quantitative estimation of ash optical depth, ash cloud top height (through parallax
techniques) and total mass of silicate ash and SO
2. The minimum spectral channels needed for
effective remote sensing of volcanic hazards are specified in the report and recommendations, as are
threshold and optimum spatial resolutions and frequencies. Similar requirements are proposed for
some important derived products (ash cloud height, ash column mass, and SO
2 concentration).

Despite the fact that most current meteorological satellite data are being used for an application for
which they were not intended, and research into various channel and spacecraft combinations is
fairly new, the current remote sensing systems work fairly well for ash cloud detection in some areas.
The main limitations of the current systems are: (1) obscuration by clouds or ambient moisture, (2)
reduced capability at night, and (3) limited ability to detect small-scale events. As for the detection
of the onset of a volcanic eruption, the current system is inadequate in all parts of the world due to
poor timeliness (satellite data frequency is typically 30 min to several hours depending on the
platform) and precision (false alarm rates are high for existing techniques). While the spatial
resolutions of some low earth orbit systems are sufficient for monitoring proximal hazards, timeliness
and cost are important issues. For radar, there is an additional need for wider availability of stereo
viewing, and for the addition of L-band radar, to expand InSAR applications in vegetated area.

Future geostationary and polar satellite systems will result in overall improvements in our ability to
monitor volcanic ash and proximal hazards, except in the Western Hemisphere. The one major
weakness in the near term will be the loss of the "split window" (12.0 micron) band, beginning with
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) spacecraft launched in July, 2001,
extending to at least 2008. Alternative strategies are being addressed to alleviate this data gap,
including research to utilize the remaining IR and visible bands on GOES, and better use of the
GOES sounder and polar spacecraft.

Team Accomplishments:
· Participated in a special session on volcanic clouds at the American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Fall Meeting in San Francisco (December 2000).
· Responses from a remote sensing survey sent to volcano observatories were evaluated. The
results were presented at the CEOS DMSG meeting in Brussels and are summarized in Appendix
B (this report).
· Participated in the CEOS Disaster Management Support Group meeting held in Brussels,
Belgium, 26-28 June 2001:

- Developed a scenario for emergency actions during an ongoing major eruption. That and f
further scenarios are presented in Appendix C (this report).

- Provided NOAA / NESDIS responses to specific CEOS action items
-
Briefed on a demonstration project to provide real-time fire and volcano products to
Central American nations
· Helped organize an international volcanic cloud workshop held at Michigan Technological
University from 28 July - 3 August 2001 at Houghton, Michigan. As a result of the workshop:
-
There will be increased collaboration on specifying "source terms" in eruption clouds
-
A letter supporting various spectral channels on the future GOES will be drafted
-
An effort will be initiated to allow more widespread access to MODIS data and derived
products
-
Another workshop is planned for July, 2003, with greater participation from VAACs
desired
-
Communications among participating scientists will be increased by means of a web-
based "Volcanic clouds" discussion group

GENERAL APPLICATION DESCRIPTION

Volcanic Ash Plumes
Volcanic ash poses a menace to persons on the ground near erupting volcanoes, and to aircraft over
thousands of kilometers for major eruptions. Volcanic eruption clouds containing silicate ash
particles, volcanic gases, and acid aerosols can do extensive damage to high altitude jet aircraft.
When ingested into jet engines, melted volcanic ash can block air intakes, abrade turbine surfaces
and blade tips, and generally cause loss of engine performance that could result in either emergency
engine shutdowns or compressor stall failures (flameouts).

Other hazards to aircraft includes pitting and corrosion of leading edge surfaces, abrasion of
windshields, and electrical discharges (Casadevall, 1992). Because of their higher operating
temperatures, the most modern, fuel-efficient "high bypass" engines are the most susceptible to ash
ingestion hazards. Thus, as more and more aircraft are powered by this type of turbine, the
consequences of ash ingestion are likely to get worse, rather than better, with time. Since volcanic
aerosols (gases and particulates) can be injected at all altitudes from sea level to 150,000 ft (45,000
m) Above Sea Level (ASL) or more, from perennially erupting sources (e.g., Mt. Etna, Italy; Mt.
Sakurajima, Japan) or from massive, explosive eruptions (e.g., Mt. Pinatubo 1991), aircraft can be
affected at any operational altitude. Thus, ash ingestion and abrasion risks can be experienced by
trans-continental and trans-oceanic aircraft at cruising altitudes in the upper troposphere and lower
stratosphere, as well as by aircraft operating near the ground in regions affected by local plumes or
ashfall. In addition to the hazards of ash to jet engines, the SO
2 and acid aerosols that normally
accompany silicate ash pose a separate hazard, although not one that actually stops engines in mid-
flight. These components of volcanic plumes etch acrylic windows quickly, and damage exposed
metal, plastic and rubber components of aircraft. With the exception of damage to acrylic windows,
the damage is difficult to recognize, so that appropriate cleaning and maintenance may not be
performed in a timely manner. (Casadevall, op. cit.) The advent of two-engine passenger jet aircraft
that are intended for long-distance travel will require (under current safety rules in the United States)
that a greater number of airports be clear for emergency landings. For example, along the air routes
in the northern Pacific, this means that proximal ash hazards that close an airport (e.g. Adak Island)
may require delaying flights through the region, even though that airport would not normally be a
destination. Eruptions near airports, as is the case for Popocatepetl near Mexico City, Mexico, or in
heavily traveled areas such as the Carribean also pose a problem for arriving and departing jetliners,
as well as smaller commuter aircraft.

Due to the worldwide hazard that airborne ash poses to aviation, remote sensing has now become
an indispensable part of the global system of detection and tracking of the airborne products of
explosive volcanic eruptions. Nine centers of expertise, known as Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers
(VAAC), provide updated advisories hazardous ash clouds to Meteorological Watch Offices (MWO),
who are responsible for forecasts and official warnings (SIGnificant METeorological (SIGMET)
information). VAACs also provide reports of eruptions as received from local or federal geological
or volcanological facilities. Areas
of responsibility for the VAACs
are shown by Figure 1. The
Volcanic Ash Advisories (VAAs)
are also sent to Area Control
Centres (ACCs), who issue
NOTices to AirMen (NOTAMs)
that describe adverse effects of
volcanic ash on air routes and
airports. The VAACs are part of
the International Airways Volcano
Watch (IAVW) program,
established by the International
Civil Aviation Organization
(ICAO).

Figure 1.
Areas of monitoring responsibility for the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC) established by
ICAO. Shaded areas are unmonitored. (Courtesy of D. Schneider, Alaska Volcano Observatory)

Government agencies that operate meteorological satellites such as NOAA/NESDIS in the United
States, European Organisation for Exploitation of METeorological SATellites (EUMETSAT), and
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), contribute their data to the VAACs and other volcano
monitoring facilities such as the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Once initial conditions
regarding the eruption are estimated, parameters are used to initialize a numerical dispersion
forecast model that becomes a critical component of the air route planning process.


Proximal Volcanic Hazards
The hazards posed by airborne volcanic ash and acid aerosols to jet aircraft have attracted much
attention from the remote sensing community, and understandably so, as the location of these
plumes can be monitored by no other means. However, the effects of a volcanic eruption are most
intense in the neighborhood of the volcano itself. If satellite-derived information is to make a larger
contribution to volcanic hazards mitigation, we must find ways to monitor and quantify the proximal
effects of volcanic activity, and to get that information to the locally based communities that are
responsible for volcano monitoring and emergency response.

There are two distinct circumstances in which volcanologists monitor activity at volcanoes: (1) unrest
at a volcano that has been dormant, but which may be preparing to erupt and (2) activity at a
volcano during an eruption, particularly a long-term eruption with spurts of accelerated activity or
pauses (as at Kilauea, or Etna, or the slow dome-building eruptions of Montserrat or Unzen). In the
first instance, the volcano will erupt only if there is renewed influx of magma from deep within the
earth. Magma movement triggers earthquakes and tremor, hence the widespread use of seismic
networks as the monitoring method of first resort. Satellite monitoring can come into play only
when the magma is near enough to the surface to produce surface deformation, or enhanced heat
flow or gas emissions. At this later stage of reawakening, volcanologists need all the information
they can get to evaluate the probability of an eruption, and it is here that remote sensing may
usefully contribute.

In the second instance, involving long-term eruptions, remote sensing can again be useful in
surveying the active area, as it may be too hazardous to survey on the ground, or too time-consuming or expensive (after years or decades) to maintain extensive ground surveillance. In
addition, remote sensing data can be used in volcano hazard assessment work at dormant or active
volcanoes. Tables 5 and 6 (below) list the various methods for monitoring and assessing volcanic
hazards, using both ground-based, and satellite techniques.

Before discussing the potential role of satellite information in detail, it is useful to lay out some
differences between dealing with local volcanic hazards vs. the disseminated ash-plume. These
differences include:

1. The magnitude of the proximal threat is much larger. There is the potential for many (perhaps
thousands) of deaths and of extensive or total destruction of buildings, roads, dams, pipelines, or
any other structures in the area. The surface drainage pattern may be disrupted, and arable land
or forest temporarily or permanently destroyed.

2. As with the aircraft hazard, the basic means of hazard mitigation is avoidance. However, instead
or diverting aircraft for comparatively brief periods, proximal hazards require evacuation of
people, livestock, any other movable property, to appreciable distances from their homes, for
uncertain lengths of time, often weeks or months.

3. Responsibility for most aspects of volcano monitoring is dispersed and usually quite local. The
directory of volcano-monitoring entities issued by the World Organization of Volcano
Observatories (WOVO) lists 61 separate observatories. Most of these focus on a single volcano,
and the levels of staffing, instrumentation, computer support, and communications links with the
outside vary greatly. Their strengths in the event of a volcanic crisis are (1) familiarity with the
eruptive history and probable behavior of the local volcano(es), (2) previously established local
credibility based on that knowledge, and (3) established connections with relevant local
government officials and emergency responders.

By contrast there are only nine VAACs, all recently established, which are similarly equipped and
staffed, and have been designed specifically to communicate with existing formal aviation and
meteorological data networks (MWOs and ACCs), and each other. However, remote sensing
capabilities vary from VAAC to VAAC (see the next section).

4. The audiences for ash vs. local hazard warnings are very different. For proximal hazards, the
entire population is the audience. The experience of that local population with volcanic
eruptions is usually limited, often non-existent, as most volcanoes have major eruptions less than
once a century. (The best tool for public education found so far is videos of actual eruptions and
their consequences.)

By contrast, the audience for warnings about ash clouds consists of dispatchers, flight planners and
pilots, who are more technically aware than the general population, and for whom flight diversions
(usually because of weather) are almost a daily occurrence.

5. Responsibility for ordering volcano-inspired response (decisions to limit access to, or require
evacuation from, certain areas, and for how long) usually rests with local government officials
and emergency managers or civil defense personnel. There are enormous social and economic
costs to any measures taken, and great resistance from almost all components of the local
community is the norm. Even one instance of evacuation that in hindsight comes to be viewed
as a "false alarm" can damage the credibility of both the officials and the scientists whose
information formed the basis for the action, for many years. (By contrast, a false alarm about a
cloud that turns out not to contain ash is a nuisance of short duration, and poses little public
safety hazard.)

For all the difficulties involved, the volcanological community has experienced some major successes
in working with decision-makers and the general public to mitigate the damage from volcanic
eruptions. An excellent discussion of the complexity of the process, and the intrinsic difficulties, can
be found in Newhall and Punongbayan (1996), who review the history of response to the 1980 Mt.
St. Helens and 1991 Pinatubo eruptions.

In considering how to expand the use of remote sensing information in support of volcanic hazards
response and mitigation, it is important to understand that, for volcanoes in populated areas, such
information will likely be used only in addition to, not instead of, ground-based information.
Attempts by outsiders (no matter how expert or well-intentioned) to preempt the role of the local
observatories and local scientists has led to confusion and can delay effective action by decision-makers and the public.

The basic recommendations of this report therefore are:
(1) to take steps to enhance mutual awareness between the space agencies and the
volcano observatory community, and
(2) to facilitate the task of finding relevant imagery, especially for newcomers to the
system, in the event of a major episode of volcanic unrest.

SPECIFIC APPLICATION DESCRIPTION: Volcanic Ash

Hazard Type:

Volcanic Ash
User Level:

International
Disaster Management Category:
Mitigation/Preparedness
Operational Status:

Operational

Current remote sensing techniques for detection and tracking of volcanic ash clouds vary from
VAAC to VAAC, and are very dependent on the availability of satellite data streams and local
processing capabilities. In the best case, polar and geostationary single and multi-spectral channel
imagery, and polar ultraviolet spectrum data is available in a timely fashion and used together to
extract the maximum information. At other VAAC's, only one satellite data stream may be available
and that one source may not be adequate for detecting all volcanic ash plumes. In either situation,
cloud cover, large amounts of moisture in both the ambient atmosphere and ash cloud, and
nighttime conditions may limit the VAAC's ability to detect and track ash.

Current satellite-based data and products:
The following satellite data and products have been deemed useful in volcanic ash detection
(spectral channels used in deriving these products are also shown, along with citations):
· Ultraviolet (UV) Backscatter and Absorption (i.e., Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS)
0.3 - 0.4 micron)

- Sulfur dioxide concentrations (Krueger et al, 1995)
-
Aerosol Index: Sensitive all absorbing aerosols, such as silicate ash, acid aerosols, silicate
dust, and smoke (0.34-0.38 micron bands) (Seftor et al. 1997)
· Visible band (0.5-1.0 micron) (Holasek and Self, 1995; Holasek et al. 1996; Pergola et al. 2001)
· Thermal IR band (11 micron) (Holasek and Self, 1995; Holasek et al. 1996)
· "Split-Window" IR (11 micron minus 12 micron temperature difference) (Prata, 1989;
Schneider et al. 1995)
· Thermal IR mid-wave band (8.5 micron) (Realmuto et al. 1997)
· Water vapor absorption band (6-7 micron) (Lunnon and McNair, 1999)
· SO
2 absorption (7.3 micron) (Crisp, 1995)
· Reflectivity product (3.9, 11 micron) (Ellrod and Connell, 1999)
· Experimental, three channel IR products (3.9, 11, 12 micron) (Ellrod and Connell, 1999; Di
Bello et al. 2002)
· Passive microwave data (85 Ghz) (Delene et al. 1996)

The above list of images or products are derived from both geostationary (GOES, METEOSAT,
GMS) and Polar orbiting satellites (NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR),
NASA's Earth Probe TOMS). The use of some of the above data types or products is currently
experimental, and is not available at all VAACs. The "split window" (11 - 12 micron IR) technique
is in widespread use at many VAACs, and is especially effective for "aged" ash plumes with low
water vapor content. Thus, the technique does not always provide unambiguous identification of the
ash cloud. An example of the capability of the split window product for a long-lived eruptive ash
cloud is shown by Figure 2 next page.

Earth Observation for Volcano Hazard Support

Figure 2. Path of eruption cloud from Mount Spurr eruption of 17 September 1992 from NOAA AVHRR
band 4-5 (split window) over a three day period (Schneider et al. 1995)

Routine image product frequency is currently 30-60 minutes for geostationary satellites (except 15
minutes for GOES over the Continental United States), and 2-6 hours for polar products. Product or
data resolutions range from 1-8 km. A multi-panel image showing GOES capabilities for an
eruption of Popocatepetl near Mexico City (Figure 3 ­ next page) depicts the standard raw images
in visible, thermal IR and shortwave IR, plus the split window product, a 3.9 - 11 micron difference
image, and the experimental three-band product.

Figure 3. Multi-spectral comparison of GOES-8 data for an eruption of Popocatepetl on 27 November 1998.

Detection of ash further depends on (a) estimating the amount of ambient water vapor assumed in
the atmospheric column, and (b) knowing the amount of magmatic or phreatic (ground water
source) water vapor in the eruption column. Given a relatively dry atmosphere and volcanic plume,
current IR detection algorithms work well (e.g., 1992 Spurr eruption discussed in Schneider et al,
1995). Also, for eruptions where both TOMS and AVHRR data are available, they give similar
results for ash retrievals (Krotkov et al., 1999), though the TOMS data is low-resolution and
available only during daylight hours.

However, where an eruption incorporates much phreatic water, or under tropical conditions where
the water vapor content in the atmospheric column is high, it is more difficult to distinguish volcanic
from meteoric clouds (e.g. the 1994 eruption of Rabaul, discussed by Rose et al., 1995, and Prata
and Grant, 2001.
In regions where only one IR channel is available (i.e., Africa - METEOSAT at
present), we cannot distinguish ash from meteorological clouds, except by cloud source and shape.
Recently, in order to try to overcome these limitations, a robust approach has been suggested, based
on the multi-temporal analysis of historical satellite records, leading to a dynamical determination of
local thresholds to be used by the detection algorithms (Pergola et al.2001; Di Bello et al. 2002).

Detection of volcanic hazards at night is more difficult and thus, less adequate, due to the absence of
visible band (0.6 micron) imagery or UV data, and the lower resolution of geostationary IR channels.
Ash has a distinctive appearance in visible data, and can thus be used to qualitatively verify
signatures observed in IR products.

Despite the fact that these meteorological satellite data are being used for an application for which
they were not intended, and research into various channel and spacecraft combinations is fairly
new, the current remote sensing systems work fairly well for some areas. As for detection of a
volcanic eruption, the current system is inadequate for detecting eruptions with a high degree of
timeliness in all parts of the world.

Parameters extracted from the satellite data:
An analysis of the horizontal extent of an ash cloud is determined from satellite images, either single
channel visible, infrared (IR) or multi-spectral IR, at one of the regional VAACs. The height of the
plume is estimated by means of IR satellite imagery, upper level temperatures and winds (derived
from radiosondes, satellite cloud motion, or numerical prediction models), aircraft pilot reports, or
ground-based observations. The plume location and height (along with eruption time and duration)
are then used to initialize a numerical model that forecasts the trajectory of the ash cloud for use by
MWOs in developing forecasts and warnings. Model output is also used for air route planning.

Volcanic aerosols and SO
2 are also detected using TOMS UV data, but the availability of TOMS is
limited to a few passes per day at present. Figure 4 is an example of ash coverage depicted by
TOMS UV on the Japanese ADEOS satellite for an eruption of Bezymianny on May 8, 1997.

Figure 4. TOMS UV Aerosol Index from the ADEOS satellite on May 8, 1997 showing extent of volcanic ash
from an eruption of Bezymianny (at location shown by +). The resolution of TOMS UV is about 40 km at
nadir. (NASA)

PRODUCTS AND SERVICES: Volcanic Ash
Principle users of volcanic ash products (satellite data, derived products, warnings, advisories) at the
international, national, and local levels are summarized in Table 1 (page 153). Examples of
volcanic ash text and graphic products issued to these users include:
· Volcanic Ash Advisory (VAA) issued by all VAACs
· Volcanic Ash graphic analysis (currently issued only by the Washington VAAC)
· Trajectory and dispersion forecast models:
-
Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport and Dispersion (VAFTAD, Washington VAAC)
-
PUFF dispersion model (Anchorage VAAC)
-
CANadian Emergency Response Model (CANERM, Montreal VAAC)
-
Modele Eulerian de DIspersion Atmospherique (MEDIA, Toulouse VAAC)
-
Nuclear Accident Model (NAME, London VAAC)
-
Hysplit Model (Darwin VAAC)
· SIGnificant METeorological information (SIGMET) issued by MWOs
· NOTices to AirMen (NOTAM) issued by ACCs
· Volcanic Eruption Information Release issued by USGS Volcano Observatories

An example of a dispersion forecast of a Mt. Spurr eruption cloud valid at 1200 UTC on 14
February 1996 from the CANERM model (Pudykiewicz, 1988) is shown in Figure 5. Validation of
dispersion trajectory forecast models are usually conducted in-house and involve comparison of
forecast ash cloud coverage with visible and IR satellite images. A study by Heffter and Stunder
(1993) found that VAFTAD forecasts of several Mt. Spurr eruption clouds in 1992 agreed
reasonably well with satellite imagery, considering the inability of satellite data to detect lower
concentrations of ash. A recent inter-comparison of VAFTAD and the Alaska PUFF model by the
Washington VAAC found that the forecasts from both models provided consistent results.

The ICAO requirement for updates of the VAA, and forecast products (SIGMETs) is a minimum of
every six hours during a volcanic ash event. Planned capabilities of future satellite systems (see final
section of report) will satisfy the ICAO requirements for remote sensing of volcanic ash, e.g. text
messages and/or graphics containing a description of the ash cloud position and its movement every
6 hours, including accurate forecast positions. However, unless suggested research areas are
supported and realized, there may be periods where the ash monitoring capability will be degraded,
such as during the time frame when GOES will not be carrying the split window channel, at night, or
in the critical first few hours of an eruption. It should be noted that this report not only reflects ICAO
requirements, but the desires of the aviation community to have accurate ash cloud updates as
frequently as possible, as well as the best possible forecast models.

Figure 5.
Canada Emergency Response Model (CANERM) 48 hour forecast output valid on 14 February
1996 at 1200 UTC for an eruption of the Mt. Spurr volcano in Alaska (from Servranckx et al. 1996). Ash
concentrations are color coded for the altitude range from 20,000 ft (Flight Level 200) to 35,000 ft (FL350)
above Mean Sea Level (MSL).

TABLE 1.
Primary Users of Volcanic Ash Products

OBSERVATIONAL REQUIREMENTS: Volcanic Ash Plumes / Eruptions
Remote sensing requirements for adequate volcanic ash and SO
2 detection are listed in the following
three tables that describe:
(1) the resolutions of raw image data (Table 2),
(2) derived product specifications (Table 3), and
(3) data frequency (Table 4).

The requirements were developed after consideration of:
(1) the spatial and temporal scales of the phenomena,
(2) current capabilities of the remote sensing system,
(3) user needs, and
(4) ongoing and prior research, including case study simulations with existing sensors.

Data that were considered difficult to obtain or too costly were not considered in the analysis.
Threshold requirements determined by current system capabilities and observed performance are
listed. Optimum capabilities were those considered achievable in the near future (10-20 years)
assuming conservative advances in technology.

The current remote sensing systems need to be augmented to improve existing capabilities. In
particular, the resolution of geostationary data needs to approach the polar resolution of 1km from
AVHRR. All VAACs should have access to "split window" geostationary data at 30 minute intervals.
An IR SO
2 absorption channel is required, and ideally, global UV data should be made available
concurrently with high-resolution thermal IR data. To achieve these capabilities, a timely "call up"
capability for very high refresh rates is needed, or access to military assets should be provided.
Minimum areal coverage of the satellite data is for each VAAC and surrounding VAACs. Optimally,
each VAAC would eventually have global satellite data coverage for all VAAC regions.

TABLE 2.
Data Resolution Requirements
Phenomenon Data
Threshold
Optimum
Ash Cloud
IR
5 km
1 km
" "
Visible
1 km
0.5 km
" "
Sounder
10 km
2 km
SO2 Cloud
UV
20 km
10 km
" "
IR
5 km
1 km
Thermal Anomaly *
IR
1 km
30 m

* Verified (with False Alarm Ratio < 5%)

TABLE 3.
Derived Product Specifications
Product Threshold
Optimum
Ash Cloud Top Height
< 2 km
< 1 km
Ash Column Density
1 ton/km2
0.3 ton/km2
SO
2 Precision *
5 DU
0.5 DU

* (SO
2 range = 0 to 700 Dobson Units (DU))
TABLE 4.
Observational frequencies

Phenomenon Threshold
Optimum
Ash Cloud
30 min
15 min
SO
2 Cloud
2 hr
15 min
Thermal Anomaly
(Persistent)
2 hr
15 min
Thermal Anomaly
(Transient)
30 sec
10 sec

RECOMMENDATIONS: Volcanic Ash
The CEOS Volcanic Hazards team makes the following recommendations regarding the remote
sensing of volcanic ash and SO
2 clouds:

Space Agencies:
· Incorporate the following spectral channels in planning for all future satellite instruments:

- Dual longwave (thermal) IR (11-12 micron)

- Dual shortwave thermal IR (2-4 micron)
-
SO
2 / ash absorption IR (8.5 micron)
-
SO
2 absorption IR (7.3 micron)
· Include both IR and UV (0.3-0.4 micron) sensors on future geostationary satellites for a
complementary volcano monitoring system.
· Develop a call up capability to obtain satellite data at the highest frequency possible for
emergency situations, and assure transmission to the users.
· The minimum frequency of available multi-spectral data should be 30 minutes for geostationary
satellites, with the optimum goal ~5 minutes. The minimum spatial resolution should be 5 km
for IR, with an optimum goal of ~1 km.
· Allow VAACs, volcano observatories, and other qualified agencies to have access to multi-spectral satellite data and/or derived products at a frequency of at least 30 minutes. Each VAAC
should have access to satellite data coverage for all neighboring VAACs in the event of
"handoff" or backup situations.

CEOS
· Support bi-annual international volcanic ash summits such as the one held at Houghton,
Michigan in July, 2001.
· Create a standing Science Working Group on Volcanic Hazards Detection.

Operational Hazard Warning Agencies:
While not germane to the responsibilities of the CEOS volcano hazards team, the following
recommendations would improve the operational volcanic ash alerting system, provide a better flow
of products and services to users, and improve the utilization of remote sensing data:

· Streamline and periodically test the communications system in order to provide timely:

(1) initial notification of an eruption from VAACs to all interested agencies
(2) dissemination and display of volcanic ash products from warning agencies to users
TABLE 5.
Monitoring Methods for Volcanic Hazards

Ground-based and airborne methods Satellite
techniques

Seismic networks to monitor earthquakes, tremor,
rockfall
--------
Deformation networks to monitor tilt, expansion
or contraction --often in conjunction with GPS
GPS, in conjunction with ground-based
networks
Radar, particularly InSAR
Monitoring changes in microgravity to detect
magma intrusion
----------
Observation of thermal emissions, measurements
of temperature, airborne FLIR cameras
Thermal IR
Gas emissions (SO
2, CO
2 levels or changes in gas
ratios) via COSPEC, LICOR, FTIR, direct
sampling
UV, IR (8.5 micron) can detect SO
2; acid
aerosols detectable by various UV, IR
methods
Acoustic monitoring for debris flows and lahars
-----------
Mapping, photography to document stages of the
eruption, distribution of eruptive products
high-resolution panchromatic or
multispectral imagery
Mapping to document topographic changes
caused by the eruption, and to determine
thickness of eruptive products
high-resolution stereo panchromatic
imagery, radar

The techniques are listed in roughly the order in which they can be used to detect movement of
magma toward the surface and then in the near-surface environment. Seismicity, deformation and
gravity changes provide the earliest assessments; however, volcano-related seismic signals can be
quite variable and require much experience in interpretation, for best results
. Thermal and gas
emissions may also precede activity, but some techniques, such as acoustic flow monitoring require
an actual eruption event in progress. Note that there are several types of ground-based monitoring
that have no satellite equivalents. However, satellite data provides unique information on (1) broad
increases in thermal emissions, especially at temperatures below incandescence in the visible, and
(2) broad patterns of deformation over areas, which cannot be done by ground-based networks.

There are two key difficulties in trying to develop satellite systems for better volcano monitoring. The
first is that volcanic eruptions are comparatively rare. Thus there are no satellite systems in place
that were designed specifically for volcano monitoring: we are working with tools developed for
other purposes. However sensors needed for detecting and evaluating other hazards (wildfire
detection and tracking, detecting deformation fields associated with earthquakes, landslide imaging
and assessment) would also serve to monitor volcanic phenomena.

A second problem is that the time-scale involved is highly variable. Explosive volcanic eruptions are
quite brief, while other types can go on for decades. A related problem is that eruptions can happen
at night, when many of the higher-resolution sensors do not function. Pieri (et. Al. 1995) gave a
good summary of how the brevity of most volcanic eruptions works against using satellite systems
for eruption monitoring, comparing two packages that are on the recently launched Terra (formerly
EOS AM-1) system (characteristics summarized in Appendix A). The MODIS package has low
spatial resolution, hence gives only a rough image of volcanic activity. The high-resolution ASTER
system has a revisit time of 16 days at the longer wavelengths, which makes it difficult to capture any
but the longest eruptions.

Figure 6. Multi-spectral Landsat image of Shishaldin volcano on May 25, 1999, showing ash-bearing
eruption cloud (gray plume at bottom center) and an area of ashfall deposits to the south of the volcano (dark
area under gray plume). Lahar pathways in the snow are also visible through light cloud on the north side of
the volcano (top center) and to the southwest (lower left). Blue areas indicate snow cover. Image processed
and interpreted by D. J. Schneider, USGS. Satellite source: Landsat-7 (false-color image, using bands 7 (2.2
mm), 5 (1.6 mm) and 4 (0.8 mm). North is up.

An example of success in capturing volcanic activity is shown in Figure 7 (next page). This Landsat
7 image of Shishaldin has observed not only an ash plume, but other relatively ephemeral features,
such as thin ash deposits and lahar tracks in snow, which can be difficult or impossible to map after
the snow melts, or after another season's weather has occurred. The downside of such systems is
that, with a 16-day repeat, short events are caught only by chance. Also, at present Landsat 7 and
ASTER imagery are not readily available to the relevant volcano observatory in real time.


Figure 7. SAR image (in slant range) of Montserrat during the ongoing eruption of Soufriere Hills Volcano
(1995-). The grey tones are amplitude data and the colour is interferometric phase data. In this case the phase
has not been corrected for topography so we see the effects of topography as fringes representing about 45m
of relief per fringe (blue-green-yellow-red closer to the satellite). The data are from the ERS-1 and -2 C-band
SARs (copyright ESA) acquired on 4 and 5 March 1999 respectively. The phase data are lost over this 24 hour
period in areas of forest and from part of the growing lava dome. The pyroclastic flow deposits, some of which
destroyed Plymouth the main
town of Montserrat, are shown
in outline. (from Wadge et al
2001)

Data Acquisition Issues
The remotely sensed data
used by the VAACs come
from operational
meteorological satellites,
and the data delivery
systems needed are already
fairly well developed. This is
not the case for remote
sensing data needed by
volcano observatories. The
observatories generally need
multiple data streams from
several satellites, run by
different agencies with
different data policies, many
of which do not have an
operational role. Even those
observatories that make
frequent use of remote
sensing imagery acquire
their data in an ad hoc
fashion, which depends on
the initiative of individuals.
Academic research groups
who are often at some
distance from the
observatory effort do a
considerable proportion of
remote sensing work on volcanoes monitored by observatories. For better operational use of remote
sensing in volcanology, we will need to get the data to observatories in a more timely and consistent
manner. Two possible ways to achieve this would be through either (1) by establishing a global data
clearing house system, or (2) by expanded facilities for local data reception.

The role of the clearing house or data center would be to provide a consistent stream of data. There
is no "World Volcano Remote Sensing Data Center" that can play this role. However, data delivery
could be accomplished via the Internet, or by Internet/communication satellite high-bandwidth
routes. A significant advantage to observatories with such a system would be to buffer the
observatories from having to deal directly with the individual data providers. The recently
established International Charter for Space and Major Disasters, co-sponsored by CNES, ESA and
CSA, constitutes an alternative approach, but will provide data only under specific, previously
defined circumstances (see emergency scenarios in Appendix C).

Local data reception has several aspects that would be attractive to observatories:

· In some locations it is the only way to acquire data ( if the observatory is out of range of major
ground receiving stations for satellites that do not have substantial on-board storage).
· It maximizes the chance of timely access to data.
· It engenders a sense of local commitment and ownership of the data (equivalent to running a
seismic network).

A major inhibitor of local reception is the cost of hardware (e.g. steerable X-band dishes), though
this should come down to within the range of observatory budgets in the future. Another factor is
that the observatory would have the initial administrative overhead of negotiating bilateral deals
with the data providers. Lastly, local reception would in most cases require additional (permanent)
staff at the observatory to deal with the data.

Specific monitoring activities:

Hazard Type 1:
Thermal monitoring of volcanoes
User level:

Local/National
Disaster management category: Preparedness/Mitigation
Operational status:

Demonstrated to be useful in restricted circumstances but not

in routine operational use.

Volcanic activity introduces heat onto the earth's surface and into the earth's atmosphere, often at
temperatures beyond those from other sources, such as wildfires or most human activities.
Furthermore, increased surficial heat flow (new steaming cracks, or enhanced activity at existing hot
springs and fumaroles) is a recognized precursor to volcanic eruptions. As an example, a thermal
anomaly was observed on Mt Etna
few days before the opening of one of the new fractures which
originated the last strong flank eruption on July 2001 (Di Bello et al. 2002) Accordingly, the potential of
satellite-derived thermal imagery of volcanic and geothermal areas has been frequently evaluated
(see e.g. Oppenheimer, 1998). Because non-specialists more readily understand thermal images,
with appropriate color-coding of pixels, than (for example) most radar imagery, they lend
themselves well to public display and discussion. Such products are hence are more likely to be used
in disaster response, if freely available, than most other types of satellite-based information currently
available.

Volcanic features, which have distinctive thermal characteristics, include: fumarole fields, crater
lakes, lava lakes, lava domes, lava flows and pyroclastic flow deposits. However, success in
developing remote sensing tools for thermal monitoring of volcanoes has been limited either by
inadequate spatial resolution or inadequate temporal resolution of the satellite systems.

Spatial resolution problems arise because extremely hot regions on active volcanoes are usually sub-
pixel size for most sensors, even in the visible and SWIR range, but are hot enough to saturate a
pixel much larger than the emitting area. Two studies of thermal imagery of Kilauean lava fields
illustrate the problem: Realmuto et al (1992) used airborne TIMS to delineate the thermal anatomy
of a lava field at Kilauea, but their success was strongly dependent on the 6m resolution of the
imagery, as can be seen by comparing their data with the Landsat image (resolution 30m) of the
Kilauean lava field analyzed by Flynn et al (1994).

As for temporal resolution, existing systems with moderate spatial resolution obtain repeat coverage
only after many days, a repeat interval which does not permit monitoring of a rapidly developing
lava flow or the emplacement of a pyroclastic deposit.

On a more positive note, changes in bulk heat production over large areas, or from a fumarolic field,
can be monitored with relatively low resolution, low repeat time, IR imagery. Long-term and
emergency monitoring of these targets is possible with AVHRR and the Along Track Scanning
Radiometer (ATSR) sensors on the ERS platforms. For example, Wooster and Kaneko (1998) show
that combined low (ATSR) and moderately high spatial resolution (TM) SWIR data permit us to
monitor the gross heat flux at the surface of an erupting lava dome. The newly available Landsat 7
imagery (resolution 30m and 60m) and ASTER imagery (resolution 30 m and 90m) will be
adequate for such broader monitoring, even with the 16-day return time; availability of this imagery
may encourage the volcano monitoring community to begin to evaluate it on a more routine basis.

Recently Harris and others (1999) have sought to exploit the high temporal resolution of GOES
thermal imagery to monitor rapid-onset hot spots at a selection of volcanoes within the Western
Hemisphere. They use bands 1, 2 and 4 of GOES 8 and 10 data to define hot areas on Kilauea,
Popcatepetl, Soufriere Hills (Montserrat), and other very active volcanoes. Updated every 15
minutes, the GOES data are processed to give 6 image products per volcano that are posted on the
web (http://volcano1.pgd.hawaii.edu/goes/), where they can be picked up by the relevant volcano
observatories (the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory for Kilauea; CENAPRED for Popocatepetl and
the Montserrat Volcano Observatory for Sourfriere Hills) for detailed inspection, evaluation and use.
Sources of noise or data gaps include cloud cover and solar reflection, and the 4km spatial
resolution is a major limitation. However, even with these limitations, the data are being used,
either to help verify heightened eruptive activity or to disprove an erroneous report.

Hazard type 2:
Volcano Topography & Deformation Monitoring with Radar
User level: